Which Texas House Seats Are Republicans Targeting?

Key battleground districts that could determine the future of Texas politics.

It was so nice of the Republican candidate for Speaker of the House, David Cook (HD96), to publish a list of House seats the Republicans are targeting this election cycle. Presumably, this list was based on internal polling.

The list included three Democrat-held seats and eight Republican-held seats. Abbott said earlier this year that the GOP intended to flip three Dem seats; now we know which ones. We also know from Cook’s list which Republican seats they’re fighting hard to hold on to.

Here it is:

The funny thing about this letter is he starts by stating there are “80 Republican Nominees in solidly red seats.” This is untrue. There are probably more like 45 solidly red seats. The rest are rapidly losing their voter base. Even if they don’t flip this year, they will likely flip by 2030.

Texas has been trending blue for many years. It’s only a matter of time at this point. Once we flip all three branches of our state government, Conservative rule will end in Texas for at least a generation. Many people are working to make that happen before 2030, the next census date, when the redistricting maps must be drawn again.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Election day is November 5, 2024, only 34 days away.

I’ll give you the links to all the Democrats running in Cook’s 11 seats. We have to help them win. Donate, volunteer, and get the word out. We only have 34 days left, and we can flip the Texas House… only if Democrats show up and vote.

The targeted Democratic seats:

HD34: This Nueces County seat, once held by retiring Democratic incumbent Abel Herrero, is up for grabs. When Republicans redrew this district, they gave Democrats a +10-point advantage. As I previously stated, very few places in Texas are trending red, and Nueces County isn’t one of them.

In fact, I’ve written about Nueces County and its numbers. It’s been a 50/50 County for years—without movement. It’s also been a low-turnout county. With the other Nueces House seat drawn to favor Republicans, HD34 should be blue again, but for some reason, Republicans are targeting it.

Soloman Ortiz JR is the Democrat running for this office. Ortiz previously served in the Texas House and has raised almost four times as much as the Republican running here has.

The Republican running for HD34 is Denise Villalobos. She’s hoping to join the majority-white Republican party and militarize Hispanic communities in South Texas—total weirdo.

HD70: This is incumbent Democrat Mihaela Plesa’s seat. Plesa has been a friend of Lone Star Left for several years, and although she is worried about this race, I have complete confidence in her ability to hold on to the seat.

A few months back, Governor Abbott said Plesa was one of Republican’s top targets, but she’s been outraising her Republican challenger by six times the funding he’s brought in. There’s a rumor circulating that Abbott will drop hundreds of thousands of dollars on this race in the next month, but that remains to be seen.

When Republicans redrew this district, it was meant to be a Democratically held district with Democrats having an +11-point advantage. The concern comes in because of the 2022 election when Plesa only won this seat by 859 votes. However, Democrats across Texas severely underperformed in the midterm election, and it shouldn’t be used as an indicator for this year when voter turnout will be 40% higher.

Steve Kinard is the Republican running against Plesa. He’s another Christian fundamentalist hoping to make it into government and control your bodies and lives.

HD80: Retired Democrat Tracy King holds this seat, which is now open for the 89th Legislative Session. We should all be concerned about this seat. When Republicans redrew this district, they only gave Democrats a +4-point advantage, and the politics in this district are odd.

Tracy King was a very Conservative Democrat and voted with Republicans probably more often than he voted with Democrats. This is also the same district where the Robb Elementry Massacre took place. And it’s a border district.

Last month, Ken Paxton targeted the Democrat running for HD80, Cecilia Castellano, raiding her home and confiscating her electronics, along with several Democratic activists in this region. They have since called for a federal investigation of Ken Paxton, who is seemingly above the law in Texas.

The Republican running for HD80 is the jackass that cussed out Beto when he confronted Abbott in the days after the Uvalde shooting. Don McLaughlin is also a frequent guest on Fox News. McLaughlin, if elected, would be another Tim Dunn puppet.

The targeted Republican seats:

HD37: This seat was long held by Democrats. In 2022, Democrats didn’t show up, and Republican Janie Lopez flipped it red by 3 points. Hopefully, the Democrats in HD37 have learned their lesson about the importance of voting because, as a legislator, Lopez has been awful.

Lopez tried to align herself with the Gilead Wives Club early on, but they functioned like a mean girls’ clique and didn’t want any part of it. So, Lopez has been operating separately from the other Republican women, mostly because the Gilead Wives Club only seems to allow white women in their ranks.

While Republicans gave this district a +2-point Democratic advantage when they did redistricting, the Democrat running for this seat has been keeping pace with Lopez’s fundraising efforts.

Jonathan Gracia is the Democrat running for this seat and has been working tirelessly to flip it back to blue.

HD52: Williamson County is rapidly trending blue, and it’s only a matter of time before the legislators and county officials here are also Democrats. The Republican incumbent Caroline Harris Davilla seems to know that, so she’s been posting pictures of herself blockwalking several times a week. She is fighting to hold on to the seat but isn’t safe.

After redistricting, Republicans only received a +4-point advantage in this district. Although Democrats failed to show up in 2022, we shouldn’t expect a repeat of that in 2024.

Jennie Birkholz is the Democrat running against Harris Davilla and has been seen blockwalking just as much and working just as hard. HD52 is going to be a close race. Birkholz has a long-time community activist and education advocate who can flip this district.

HD63: Republican incumbent Ben Bumgarner is a pro-guns, pro-school shooting gun manufacturer. I don’t have much to say about him because he was utterly ineffective during his one term in the Texas House. He didn’t pass any bills or have much time at the mic.

On the other hand, the Democrat running against him, Michelle Beckley, is one of the hardest-working candidates in North Texas. She flipped a red seat the first time she ran for the House, and we should expect to see her flip this seat, too.

Although Republicans gave themselves a +5-point advantage in redistricting, Denton County is booming, and this district is rapidly changing. Republicans want to hold on to this seat because they know it’s at risk.

HD108: Since Dallas is my hometown, I’m always going to have an affinity for the Democratic candidates running to push out awful Republicans. (I’m rooting for Dallas to soon take Austin’s spot as the bluest dot in Texas.) That’s why Republican incumbent Morgan Meyers, who Harlan Crow primarily funds, has to go.

Elizabeth Ginsberg is the Democrat running for this seat. Republicans only have a +0.8 advantage in this seat, so flipping it blue isn’t as much of an uphill battle as it is in many other districts.

While Meyers has raised seven figures this election cycle, he spent most of it staving off a primary challenger and currently has roughly the same amount in the bank as Ginsberg. For this district, like so many others, if Democrats show up, they’ll win.

HD112: In this election cycle, so many Gen Z candidates are running for office. While some of my elderly peers might think this means inexperience, I don’t. I wish more Gen Z were running for office. Gen Z grew up in a world very different from those of us over 40; they’re more progressive and have so much energy.

Averie Bishop is the Democrat running for HD112. She’s also the former Miss Texas and has nearly 1 million followers on TikTok. She’s also a fifth-generation Texan and recently graduated from SMU with a JD degree—all before 30. She’s far from inexperienced, and she is undoubtedly going places.

The Republican incumbent in this district, Angie Chen Button, always talks about how her wealthy parents escaped communism and brought her to America, and that’s why she’s a fascist Conservative. Button is a seemingly nice old grandma about to hand you a freshly baked cookey, but looks are deceiving, and she votes with the worst of them.

HD118: Is this seat going to flip? I won’t jinx it, but the Republicans seem to think so. Kristian Carranza is the Democrat working tirelessly to make that happen. She’s outraised her political opponent by leaps and bounds and has dedicated daily to getting out the vote in November.

The Republican incumbent in this seat got lucky, first winning in a special election… because Democrats in Texas don’t vote in special elections and then winning in a midterm election… because Democrats in Texas don’t vote in midterm elections. Y’all have to stop doing that. The only reason Republicans still have power in Texas is because we have the lowest voter turnout rate of any state in the nation.

But we’re going to change that in 2024!

Democrats have a +2-point advantage in this seat. If Democrats show up, they flip it.

HD121: During the Republican primary election this year, Marc Lahood ousted long time incumbent and the last remaining moderate Republican, Steve Allison. Lahood did this with a huge cash infusion from Governor Abbott—which means, he’ll be a “yes” vote on vouchers.

The Democrat running for HD121 is Laurel Jordan Swift, who is pro-public education, pro-women, and pro-democracy. If we didn’t live in bizzaro world, it wouldn’t even be a contest. Unfortunately, after years of the culture war, Republicans have joined an orange man’s cult, and are itching to vote against their own best interests.

Republicans only have a +2-point advantage in this Bexar County district. There is some amazing energy happening in Bexar County this year, I’m hoping to see that lead to a magical night for Democrats on November 5.

HD138: Republican incumbent Lacey Hull has had multiple extramarital affairs with her Republican coworkers. She also assaulted a pro-Palestine protester at a Greg Abbott event earlier this year. Hull is one of the few Republican ladies in the Texas House beholden to Valoree “Tony Suprano” Swanson, who helped Hull get elected.

Stephanie Morales is the Democrat running for this seat. Republican only have HD138 a +5-point advantage when they redrew the maps in 2021, so Morales isn’t facing an uphill race. The Harris County Democratic Party has vowed to turn out 1.1 million Democratic voters this election, with HD138 being on their target list.

Now is the time to step up and get involved.

Voting is essential, but it’s not the only thing that makes an election successful. We need boots on the ground, phones ringing off the hook, and every hand doing its part to ensure that Democrats don’t just have a chance—they have the support to flip these critical seats.

In these final 34 days, every action counts. Whether it’s talking to your neighbors, volunteering at campaign offices, hosting fundraisers, or simply spreading the word online, you are a part of this movement. The GOP has its deep-pocketed donors and corporate interests behind them, but we have something much stronger—the power of the people. We’ve seen what happens when voter turnout surges, and we know that when Democrats show up, they win.

The finish line is in sight, but getting there will take all of us, shoulder to shoulder, working tirelessly. Let’s make these last days count.

Vote early, vote often, just vote.

• October 7: Last day to register to vote.

• October 21: First day to early vote.

• October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.

• November 1: Last day to early vote.

• November 5: Election day!

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