The Texas Senate Races
Democratic gains or GOP hold? The fight for the Texas Senate.
There are 25 days left until the election, and with early voting starting in 10 days, we still have a lot of races to cover. I’ve received a couple of requests for breakdowns of various county races, but unfortunately, we won’t have enough time for that. Over the next week and a half, we’ll examine nine more House races and a few Congressional races. Stay tuned.
If you missed it:
State Board of Elections: Some Of The Most Important Texas Elections in 2024
Texas Supreme Court: Why Texas Supreme Court Elections Deserve Your Attention
This election season, 15 State Senate seats are up for election, and the other 16 will be up for election in 2026. While several Democratic seats are running unopposed, none of the Republicans are getting off without a challenger.
First, the unopposed.
SD14 - Sarah Eckhardt (D - Austin)
SD16 - Nathan Johnson (D - Dallas)
SD20 - Chuy Hinojosa (D - McAllen)
SD23 - Royce West (D - Dallas)
SD29 - Cesar Blanco (D - El Paso)
Since these five Democrats are unopposed, they will be back in Austin in January for a four-year term and will be familiar faces in the 89th and 90th Legislative Sessions.
Who is on the ballot?
While both Republicans and Democrats are on the ballot, Republicans are not making gains anywhere in Texas. The Rio Grande Valley is a concern only because billionaires are dumping large amounts of cash in a blue area that’s been taken for granted for too long. However, there shouldn’t be too much to worry about this election.
SD06 - Carol Alvarado (D - Houston): Senator Alvarado is often considered the most progressive senator, along with Senator Eckhardt. She served on the Houston City Council, then in the House of Representatives, and has been a State Senator since 2018. Alvarado has fiercely championed women’s rights, LGBTQ rights, immigrant rights, and the working class. In 2021, she held a 15-hour filibuster to protect voting rights.
After redistricting, Republicans gave this district a +33-point Democratic advantage. This is an 89% non-Anglo district with no serious chance of a Republican having a shot here.
The Republican running against Alvarado is a woman named Martha Fierro. She won’t win.
SD07 - Paul Bettencourt (R - Houston): Senator Bettencourt has spent the last two decades of his career trying to remove access to the ballot for as many Black and brown people as possible. He’s Texas’ own Voter Suppression Czar. He began his career as a Harris County voter registrar but resigned in a scandal when he was caught trying to purge Hispanic voters from the voter rolls. So, of course, he became a Conservative champion.
Republicans only had a +16.2 advantage in SD07 when they redrew the maps. This district is only 44% Anglo, and considering how much of his priorities have been focused on harming communities of color, a hard-fought campaign could flip this seat.
The Democrat running for this seat is Michelle Gwinn. Unfortunately, Gwinn is not on social media, and I have not met her yet, so I can’t tell you much about her campaign. But here she is block walking with Katy Democrats:
SD08 - Angela Paxton (R - McKinney): Y’all know that Ken Paxton’s partner in crime needs no introduction. If there’s one thing Angela Paxton has always done, it is stand by her man, and if anyone knows where the bodies are hidden, it would be her. Senator Paxton has based her entire life and personality around being the wife of the most corrupt politician in Texas.
Here is Paxton during the 2021 hearing when the Republicans racially gerrymandered the maps, telling a witness that she couldn’t be racist because an Asian City Council Woman in Plano supports her. (The witness was a lawyer from the ACLU.)
Whether Paxton is voted out this election will say more about her husband than her. Collin County is where the Paxton’s primary residence is, and they’ve developed a highly complex relationship with local Republican voters. During the primary, Ken Paxton attempted to oust the Republicans in Collin County who voted for impeachment by backing their opponents, who all lost. It’s possible that Republican voters in this district have had enough of Bonnie and Clyde Paxton.
Republicans only have this district a +12-point advantage in 2021, and Collin County is booming in population and diversity. Angela Paxton isn’t safe.
Rachel Mello is the Democrat running against Paxton. We met Mello on the Left In Texas Podcast, which I did during the primary season. She is a relentless public education advocate and has scored endorsements from the Texas AFL-CIO, the Texas Progressive Caucus, Mothers Against Greg Abbott, Stonewall Democrats, and many more. Mello is a solid candidate for a seat slipping away from Republicans in a year when we expect the GOP to underperform. Will she flip it? Only if Democrats get their tails to the polls and vote.
SD10 - Phil King (R - Weatherford): In 2020, the Crawford family, while researching their ancestry, discovered their direct ancestors were enslaved in Parker County, lynched, and then buried in the well on the courthouse lawn. That incident happened in the 1860s. Fifty years later, the United Daughters of the Confederacy erected a Confederate monument in that same spot.
Read more about that story here:
When the family made the discovery, they started working on ways to locate the bodies and have the racist rock moved to the Confederate graveyard. They tried a lot of different avenues, including asking then-House Rep. Phil King for assistance. King promised to help them, took pictures with them, and never answered their calls again.
It was rumored that during a July 2020 protest of the statue, when protesters were assaulted and had weapons pulled on them by 3%ers, King was on the second floor of the office buildings across the street, watching the show.
In addition, Phil King was also the legislator who pushed for the bill to put the Ten Commandments in every Texas classroom during the last session.
Republicans only have a +15-point advantage in this district, which is gerrymandered through seven counties. Most of the population is in Tarrant County, which is getting bluer with each election.
Andy Morris is the Democrat running against King. Morris is an immigration attorney currently working at World Relief Texas, a refugee assistance organization. I met Morris a few months back at an event, and I can tell you he is a great candidate. Some of Morris’ priorities are pro-education, clean energy, and anti-corruption.
SD12 - Tan Parker (R - Flower Mound): Pennsylvania native Senator Parker, like most Republicans, spends his time talking about being a true Texan. He’s also one of multi-millionaire Mayes Middleton’s closest allies in the Senate. Before serving in the Senate, Parker served in the Texas House and has always voted with extremism.
Republicans only gave themselves an +11-point advantage in this district during redistricting. SD12 covers Dallas, Tarrant, Denton, and Wise Counties, very populated areas growing at a breakneck speed.
Stephanie Draper is the Democrat running against Parker. Draper wants to expand access to healthcare and protect public education. Here she is testifying at the Tarrant County Commissioners Court against Tim O’Hare’s voter suppression tactics:
SD15 - Molly Cook (D - Houston): Senator Cook was sworn in after winning a special election when John Whitmire became Houston’s mayor. Cook is a progressive Democrat who will likely join Echhardt and Alvarado on Team Lefty (which I’m super excited about).
Since Cook was sworn in during an off-year, we haven’t seen her take on the GOP fascists in the Senate yet, but the 89th Legislative session will be her turn at the bat.
This is a safe blue seat, where Democrats have a +31-point advantage. Regardless, Joseph Trahan is the Republican running against her. He won’t win, and Molly Cook will go to Austin in January.
SD17 - Joan Huffman (R - Houston): While Senator Huffman lives in Houston, her district covers eight counties thanks to her racial gerrymandering. That’s right, Joan Huffman was the architect of the 2021 redistricting maps. The Senate took a week of testimony hundreds of people told them how racist the maps were, yet Huffman repeated, again and again, “I drew the maps blind to race.”
While debating these maps with Senator Borris Miles (D), she admitted that if Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act had remained intact, the maps would have violated it. Of course, we all know that the Conservatives on the US Supreme Court killed Section 5 with Shelby vs. Holder.
Here is the 30-minute highlight real of that week:
It was an incredibly deplorable week.
Republicans have a +17-point advantage in SD17, which makes it an uphill battle for the Democrat running here. Huffman also has $1.4 million cash on hand, making this race just as hard.
Kathy Cheng is the Democrat running against Huffman. She’s a legal advocate who supports public education and expanding healthcare access.
SD25 - Donna Cambell - (R - New Braunfels): Dr. Campbell (or is she called Dr. Senator? or Senator Dr?) has a bright yellow dress that she wears almost everywhere. She also wears a bright yellow jacket in the winter. Yellow is her favorite color, and since it’s supposed to represent cheer, I think it’s intended for us to be distracted from her ideology, which is anything but cheerful.
Campbell is an emergency room physician. She’s supposed to have taken the Hippocratic Oath, yet here she is, last session, passing an amendment to a bill that would harm transgender children:
Campbell was first elected in 2012. Since then, her votes have harmed women, people of color, the working class, the LGBTQ community, and anyone within 100 miles of an oil well. But she does it in a cheerful, bright yellow dress.
When Republicans redrew the maps in 2021, they gave themselves an +18-point advantage in SD25, but like so many other places in Texas, this area is seeing a booming population that’s rapidly diversifying.
Dr. Merrie Fox is the Democrat running against the Dr. Senator. Even though Fox is a different kind of Dr. than Campbell (a PhD), she truly believes in “Do no harm.” But empathy and harm reduction are leftist ideals. Dr. Fox has a PhD in Educational Leadership, making her the most pro-public education candidate on the ballot for SD25. Like any good candidate with empathy and harm reduction ideals, Fox’s priorities include public education, clean energy, access to health care, and gun sense.
SD27 - Morgan Lamantia (D - South Padre Island): When Senator Lamantia first ran for office in 2022, I hesitated to support her because she was taking over former Senator Eddie Lucio’s seat with his endorsement. Lucio used to be the worst Democratic Senator we had (now it’s Chuy Hinojosa) because Lucio was, in every sense of the word, a DINO. He voted with Republicans 90% of the time (maybe more) but still called himself a Democrat. However, Lamantia showed us that in the 88th Legislative Session, she could be trusted with her votes and stood firm on Democratic values.
Most of the state wishes Lucio would go away, but even after retirement, he has been lurking around in Austin, backing school vouchers. Just last week, he endorsed Lamantia’s Republican opponent, Adam Hinojosa. Republican millionaires and billionaires have been funneling mountains of cash into the pockets of weak Democrats to get them to switch parties (Eric Johnson, Shawn Thierry). The only reason Lucio hasn’t switched parties yet is because he lives in a solid blue area.
Democrats only have a +4-point advantage in this district, making it the most competitive Senate district in Texas. Hinojosa also ran for this seat in 2022, when he lost to Lamantia by 650 votes.
This election cycle, Hinojosa has taken $250,000 from Harlan Crow’s PAC and another $250,000 from Tim Dunn’s PAC, and those are far from the only billionaires funding his race.
Since it’s a presidential year, Democratic turnout will be much higher than in 2022. Because of that, I’m confident that Lamantia will win again, but it’ll be a tough race.
SD30 - Open Seat (Far North Texas): Senate District 30 is currently held by Drew Springer, who voted to acquit Ken Paxton, then almost immediately had a ton of regret. Paxton and Dan Patrick’s sheer corruption during the impeachment trial led him to resign at the end of his term.
Dale Frey is the Democrat running for this seat. Frey is pro-education, in favor of expanding healthcare access, and believes in a woman’s right to choice and liberty for the LGBTQ community. Plus, he’s pulled in some big-name endorsements.
Brent Hagenbuch is the Republican running for this seat. He doesn’t even live in the district, which is supposed to be illegal under Texas law, but considering how many Republicans don’t live in their districts, it’s an issue that’s widely ignored.
Republicans have a +23-point advantage in this district, which contains several sundown towns. However, there has been a strong progressive movement in this area, which I have been impressed with over the last several years. It will be a hard race for Frey, but like every other race in Texas, it will depend heavily on Democratic turnout.
The upcoming election will define the trajectory of Texas for years to come.
To turn the Senate blue, we need to flip four Senate seats. Can we do that this year? Probably not, but we should be able to by 2030, and every flip counts toward the larger goal of unseating Republicans.
The stakes are high, with critical Senate and House seats on the line and the balance of power hanging in the hands of voters. From urban districts like Houston and Dallas to the more rural and gerrymandered regions of North Texas, every vote will shape the future of public education, healthcare access, and voting rights. Republicans may have drawn the maps in their favor, but voter turnout and engagement are the key factors that ultimately decide these races. Texas Democrats must seize this moment and make their voices heard to push back against harmful policies and create a more equitable state.
Vote early, vote often, just vote.
October 21: First day to early vote.
October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!
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Unfortunately that's all i have heard from or about Morris...SS 10.
Kamla has got to have some mighty long coat tails to drag Morris across the line.