The Morning After: What The Hell Happened Last Night?

From Dusk Till Dawn: The GOP's Embrace of Trumpism in Texas.

On Monday, I said, “It’s important to remember that primary turnout doesn’t dictate November turnout.” That’s true, and Democrats need to keep that in mind when analyzing the primary results. Republicans did show up in the primary election in higher numbers than Democrats. But all of their leadership was heavily invested in the primaries and ousting the last few sane Republicans.

Of all the takeaways from the 2024 primary elections, the biggest one should be this: Texas Republicans are Trump Republicans. As terrible as it sounds, over the next several months, Democrats and non-voters in the Lone Star State are going to have to have a come-to-Jesus moment and accept that their neighbors hate them and want to do them harm.

Trump won big in Texas, and so did Trumpism. While in other states, we’ve seen Trump barely win 60% - 70% of the primary vote, he won 77% here in Texas. And that’s considering that probably 5% of Nikki Haley’s voters were Democrats.

While the Republicans are less united behind down-ballot candidates, they seemingly appear to be all in for the aspiring orange dictator. We’ll have lots of time to delve further into the implications of another Trump presidency before the November election or before he goes to jail, whichever comes first. But first, let’s get to the down-ballot candidates.

Colin Allred will face off against Ted Cruz in November.

While Allred wasn’t our first choice, it’s time for us all to support him now. We have to beat Ted Cruz in November. After Allred gets elected, it’ll be up to us, the people, to help guide and steer him toward the votes we want. At the end of the day, Allred is a Democrat who will vote in favor of women’s and voting rights.

While Roland Gutierrez did pull into second place, behind Allred, it wasn’t enough to force a runoff. On the bright side, Gutierrez still has his seat in the State Senate, and we can still expect him to give Dan Patrick hell in the next legislative session. Gutierrez is a good man and was a good candidate, but it’s hard to beat someone who has outraised you 20-1.

I’ll post more about the Senate race and many other races in the coming week. Stay tuned.

Congress.

There weren’t too many surprises, but the few were mainly on the Republican side.

Incumbents Dan Crenshaw (R-TX02), Keith Self (R-TX03), Pat Fallon (R-TX04), Jake Ellzey (R-TX06), Michael McCaul (R-TX10), Monica De La Cruz (R-TX15), Pete Sessions (R-TX17), Jodey Arrington (R-TX19), Roger Williams (R-TX25), Michael Cloud (R-TX27), John Carter (R-TX31), and Brian Babin (R-TX36) all won their primary elections.

On the Democratic side, incumbents Lizzie Fletcher (D-TX07), Jasmine Crockett (D-TX30), Mark Veasey (D-TX33), and Lloyd Doggett (D-TX37) all won their primary races.

The Republican races for TX07 and TX35 will go to a runoff; however, these seats will remain blue in November.

Tony Gonzalez, the Republican incumbent for TX23, didn’t reach 50% of the vote, which means this race will go to a runoff against him and the AK Guy, you know, the one who left an unexploded device in Uvalde.

Here is what we’re looking at for the Congressional races in November. (If they have a ✔ next to their name, they’ll have no challenger in November and win by default.)

• TX01:

  • R-Nathaniel Moran ✔

• TX02:

  • R-Dan Crenshaw

  • D-Peter Filer

• TX03:

  • R-Keith Self

  • D-Sandeep Srivastava

• TX04:

  • R-Pat Fallon

  • D-Simon Cardell

• TX05:

  • R-Lance Gooden

  • D-Ruth Torres

• TX06:

  • R-Jake Ellzey

  • D-John Love

• TX07:

  • R-❓-Runoff

  • D-Lizzie Fletcher

• TX08:

  • R-Morgan Lutrell

  • D-Laura Jones

• TX09:

  • D-Al Green✔

• TX10:

  • R-Michael McCaul

  • D-Teresa Boisseau

• TX11:

  • R-August Pflugerville✔

• TX12:

  • R-❓-Runoff

  • D-Trey Hunt

• TX13:

  • R-Ronnie Jackson✔

• TX14:

  • R-Randy Weber

  • D-Rhonda Hart

• TX15:

  • R-Monica De La Cruz

  • D-Michelle Vallejo

• TX16:

  • R-Irene Armendariz-Jackson

  • D-Veronica Escobar

• TX17:

  • R-Pete Sessions

  • D-Mark Lorenzen

• TX18:

  • R-❓-Runoff

  • D-Shiela Jackson Lee

• TX19:

  • R-Jodey Arrington✔

• TX20:

  • D-Joaquin Castro✔

• TX21:

  • R-Chip Roy

  • D-Kristin Hook

• TX22:

  • R-Troy Nehls

  • D-Marquette Greene-Scott

• TX23:

  • R-❓-Runoff

  • D-Lee Simon

• TX24:

  • R-Beth Van Duyne

  • D-Sam Eppler

• TX25:

  • R-Roger Williams✔

• TX26:

  • R-Brandon Gill

  • D-Ernest Lineberger

• TX27:

  • R-Michael Cloud

  • D-Tanya Lloyd

• TX28:

  • R-❓-Runoff

  • D-Henry Cuellar

• TX29:

  • R-❓-Runoff

  • D-Sylvia Garcia

• TX30:

  • D-Jasmine Crockett✔

• TX31:

  • R-John Carter

  • D-❓-Runoff

• TX32:

  • R-❓-Runoff

  • D-❓-The votes are still being counted (as of 10 am)

• TX33:

  • R-Patrick Gillespie

  • D-Mark Veasey

• TX34:

  • R-Mayra Flores

  • D-Vicente Gonzalez

• TX35:

  • R-❓-Runoff

  • D-Greg Casar

• TX36:

  • R-Brian Babin

  • D-Dana Steele

• TX37:

  • R-Jenny Garcia Sharon

  • D-Lloyd Doggett

• TX38:

  • R-Wesley Hunt

  • D-Melissa McDonough

Don’t worry; in the next few days, I’ll have a complete list with website links for all the Democrats, and over the next week, I’ll have further analysis of each race. But I wanted to give you a glimpse of what we’re looking at.

The Texas Senate.

There aren’t any surprises for the Texas Senate, but a few runoffs exist.

The big Texas Senate race was SD15 (Harris County) to determine who would replace John Whitmire (D). While I endorsed Karthik Soora, he did not make it to the runoff. There will be a runoff between Jarvis Johnson and Molly Cook in May.

Also, SD30 had several Democrats and several Republicans. Both sides are going to a runoff. So, here’s what we’re looking at in the Texas Senate:

• SD06:

  • R-Martha Fierro

  • D-Carol Alvarado

• SD07:

  • R-Paul Bettencourt

  • D-Michelle Gwinn

• SD08:

  • R-Angela Paxton

  • D-Rachel Mello

• SD10:

  • R-Phil King

  • D-Andy Morris

• SD12:

  • R-Tan Parker

  • D-Stephanie Draper

• SD14:

  • D-Sarah Eckhardt✔

• SD15:

  • R-Joseph Trahan

  • D-❓-Runoff

• SD16:

  • D-Nathan Johnson✔

• SD17:

  • R-Joan Huffman

  • D-Kathy Cheng

• SD20:

  • D-Chuy Hinojosa✔

• SD23:

  • D-Royce West✔

• SD25:

  • R-Donna Campbell

  • D-Merri Fox

• SD27:

  • R-Adam Hinajosa

  • D-Morgan Lamantia

• SD29:

  • D-Cesar Blanco✔

• SD30:

  • R-❓-Runoff

  • D-❓-Runoff

On the bright side, most of our incumbent Democrats are safe. There isn’t one Republican in the Texas Senate running unopposed, so come November, we have to give them hell.

Texas House.

Let me start with the Texas House elections by telling you that it is a complete shit show. And it is just too much for us to get into in this article, so expect to see another from me by the afternoon that will only be about the House.

Railroad Commissioner, SCOTX, and SBOE.

It’s still being counted on the Republican side, but Katherine Culbert won the Democratic nomination.

The RR Commissioner is the only statewide race this year, along with the US Senate and SCOTX, so we’ll be talking about it a lot in the coming months.

Also, because of the implications of the SBOE’s impact on the state, we will revisit these races heavily this year.

Important 2024 primary RUNOFF election days:

• April 29, 2024: Last day to register to vote.

• May 17, 2024: Last day to apply by mail

• May 20, 2024: First day of early voting.

• May 24, 2024: Last day of early voting.

• May 28, 2024: Last day to receive a ballot by mail.

• May 28, 2024: Election day.

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