Texas Sees Record Early Voter Turnout In Key Democratic Strongholds

Bexar, Travis, and DFW Counties lead the charge in record-breaking turnout.

Oct 22, 2024

The Texas Secretary of State (SoS) shows some of yesterday’s early voting numbers, but many counties have yet to show up. Did we beat the 1.1 million first-day turnout we saw in 2020? We should know later today.

Here is the link if you want to watch for the data.

Multiple counties around the state saw record turnout yesterday. This is good news for Democrats, as higher turnout typically favors us. Let’s hope that high turnout continues throughout early voting. Let’s get into it.

The counties that broke records:

Bexar County had the highest first-day voter turnout, with 46,820 ballots on Monday. This is a big deal because Bexar County is one of the most critical counties for Democrats in this election. Aside from having three Texas House seats primed for flipping, we’re also trying to get rid of Chip Roy.

Travis County also saw its highest first-day voter turnout, with 46,600 people voting yesterday. In 2020, that number was just over 35,000, so this was a big jump. Travis County is a safe blue bastion, another good sign for Democrats.

Most major counties in the DFW metroplex saw record voter turnout.

Tarrant County had a record turnout of 52,407 (the local Fox News affiliate reported this 30 minutes before the polls closed, so it’s probably higher). In 2020, Tarrant County’s first-day turnout was only 42,343.

Collin County also broke another record yesterday with 43,306 voters. In 2020, that number was just over 39,0000. We’re expecting Collin County to flip blue this year, so this is yet another positive indication for Democrats.

Denton County is also on the list. Yesterday, they saw 40,020 by 5 p.m., even though the polls closed at 7 p.m. On the first day of 2020, Denton County only had 35,944 voters.

Historically, higher voter turnout in urban and suburban areas has benefited Democrats, particularly as these areas diversify and become more progressive. While these numbers are promising, they represent only the beginning of early voting. Sustaining high turnout through the final days of early voting and Election Day itself will be crucial. Texas has seen a tightening of voting laws, and Republicans are still expected to do well in more rural areas. Democrats must capitalize on this early energy by keeping turnout high in urban and suburban counties.

The counties that didn’t quite make records—with caveats.

Neither Harris nor Dallas County broke their 2020 record yesterday, but they came close, and it’s important to know that the conditions were much different this year.

Harris County Democrats aim for 1.1 million Democratic voters this year, and I think they still have a good chance of getting there. Yesterday, there was a first-day voter turnout of just over 125,000. In 2020, that number was just over 128,000. So, they came close, but you have to remember that in 2020, Harris County had both drive-thru and 24-hour voting, which was axed by the legislature in 2021.

If both of those factors had still been in place, the record would have been broken.

Then, there is Dallas County. In 2020, they had over 59,000 first-day voters, but also in 2020, the polls in Dallas County stayed open until 7 p.m. Yesterday, we saw 53,220 first-day voters. However, the polls in Dallas closed at 5 p.m. So, while they got close to beating their first-day record, their polls closed two hours earlier than they did in 2020.

Both Dallas and Harris Counties are extremely important for Texas Democrats this year, but you shouldn’t be worried that, as I said, those two didn’t break records because the conditions are different.

There are many other counties we don’t know about yet. As the information becomes available from the SoS, I’ll have more updates for you later.

What About Rural Texas?

While the turnout in urban and suburban counties is encouraging for Democrats, rural counties’ role in Texas elections must not be overlooked. These areas have historically been strongholds for Republicans, and while they tend to have lower voter turnout numbers overall, they can still pack a punch, especially in statewide races.

Rural areas of Texas tend to lean heavily conservative, and Republican candidates often count on these voters to offset the more progressive urban centers. While we don’t have final numbers from many more rural counties, we can expect Republicans to do well in places like East Texas and the Panhandle, where turnout might not break records but will still be solid.

Over the next few days, we’ll continue to see these numbers trickle out, and in the next day or two, data scientists will analyze who is most likely voting (demographics). I’ll update you on that data as soon as I see it.

How much will the never-Trumpers impact this election?

If Trump has lost even 10% of his support from 2020, it’ll be devastating for Republicans in Texas. Some Democrats expect a more significant crossover vote (R-to-D) than usual. And some politicos are murmuring about a political realignment.

I’ll have many data breakdowns after the election, but until then, we need to keep up the momentum. Despite the promising numbers from the first day of early voting, challenges are still ahead.

If high turnout can be sustained, particularly in urban and suburban areas, it could spell trouble for Republicans in key races. But having a solid first day is not enough—Democrats need to keep voters engaged and motivated throughout the early voting period.

Democratic candidates are already ramping up their efforts, with phone banking, door knocking, and social media campaigns in full swing. Voters’ enthusiasm is evident, but it’s up to the campaigns to keep that energy alive until every last ballot is cast.

This election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in Texas in years, and early voting numbers suggest that voters are well aware of what’s at stake. Keep an eye on the turnout over the coming days—it could very well determine the future political landscape of Texas.

Stay tuned.