Texas Republicans' Hard Right Turn

Election Aftermath: The radical transformation of Texas' Republican Party.

I’ve been watching the Texas Legislature for over a decade, and while I have seen a few knock-down-drag-out Republican primary races in Texas, nothing prepared me for the bloodbath we saw last night.

Nine Incumbent Republican House members lost their seats. Eight more incumbent Republicans were forced into runoffs.

Moreover, the Republicans running against the incumbents are further right: Christian Nationalists, bigoted, homophobic, xenophobic, racist, sexist, and, in many cases, criminals.

Potentially, in May, we may have 17 brand-spanking new fascists in the Texas House, ready to write laws to control your life, body, freedom, and pursuit of happiness.

Don’t panic, Democrats. Not yet.

I know y’all tend to panic and feel like throwing in the towel, pulling your hair out, calling your realtor, and mulling over selling your House. But don’t. This may be what Texas Democrats finally need to take back control.

We’ll talk about it plenty more before November, but so many of these har-liner GOP are little-mini carbon copies of Trump; they embody Trumpism. Even if only 10% of Republicans are never-Trumpers, that’s a 10-point swing in a lot of races where the Democrat won within ten points in the last election.

Secondly, Republicans are itching to death to close Texas primary elections, making it so that people have to register with one party or the other. You’ll only be able to vote in the primary you’re registered with. However, they haven’t done it yet. 😈

When the runoffs happen in May, Democrats must cast their votes again. But they won’t be voting for a Republican. They’ll be voting against fascism. Plus, that will guarantee certain GOP members won’t try to pass legislation to close primaries in the next legislative session. It’s a win/win for democracy.

Last, 52% of swing-state Republicans won’t vote for Trump if he’s in prison. It’s probably much less in Texas. But even if 20% of Republicans forgo the elections because Trump is in prison, you add that with the 10% of never-Trumpers, and not only is Trump doing bad in Texas, so are all his down-ballot candidates.

There’s just so much on the table between now and November. Anything could happen. So, let’s get into it.

Which Republicans are out? (The Nullified Nine)

HD02—Jill Dutton: Poor Jill Dutton. She was just sworn in on February 14, and less than three weeks later, she was voted out. This may be some record. In her place, being sent to the November election, is Bret Money. Yes, that’s his real name (I think).

HD11—Travis Clardy: Clardy has been in the House for 12 years and voted against Abbott’s vouchers. He’s not a loss to us, as he was a dummy who voted against marginalized communities all of the time. However, his opponent was worse. Pro-Voucher Republican Joanne Shofer received endorsements from Greg Abbott and Ted Cruz. We don’t have a Democrat running in HD11 so that Shofer will be headed to Austin in January 2025.

HD18—Ernest Bailes: Bailes was in office for eight years and voted against Abbott’s vouchers. So, Greg Abbott gave his magical endorsement to Republican Janis Holt. We don’t have a Democrat in HD18, so Holt will also go to Austin.

HD26—Jacey Jetton: Jetton served only two legislative sessions and was one of the only two AAPI Republicans in the House. He’s being replaced with an old white guy, Matt Morgan. This is in Fort Bend County, which has a high AAPI population and is one of the most diverse counties in America. In November, Morgan will face off against Democrat Daniel Lee. This is Lee’s second time running for this seat.

HD55—Hugh Shine: Shine also served in the legislature for eight years. He was against Abbott’s vouchers, so Abbott endorsed his primary opponent, Hillary Hickland. Hickland also received the endorsements of Paxton, Trump, and Phelan. This district is only +6 Trump. Depending on what happens between now and November and how Democrat Jennifer Lee handles her campaign, she might have a good shot flipping this seat.

HD60—Glenn Rogers: Parker County Rep Glenn Rogers only served two legislative terms. This campaign was gruesome; we’ll revisit some of the details soon. Running against Rogers was local millionaire Mike Olcott. Olcott has been politically active in Parker County for many years, funding most of the activity there. He’s also had several run-ins with some activists I know from that neck of the woods. Olcott’s hands are far from clean. Since there isn’t a Democrat running in HD60, and Olcott will be headed to Austin, stay tuned.

HD62—Reggie Smith: Smith is out after six years, and Shelley Luther is in. Yes, that Shelly Luther. There is a Democrat, Tiffany Drake, running in HD62. However, this is more than a +50 Trump district, so Democrats here will have to turn out and pray Republicans stay home. Could it happen? We’ll see. On the bright side, we’ll be able to depend on Luther to give us lots of comedic relief.

HD—65 Kronda Thimesch: Thimesch blocked me on Twitter, so bye. Mitch Little, one of corrupt AG Ken Paxton’s attorneys, won the primary. Little is one of Paxton’s picks. But we’ll see how Denton County pulls through in November. The Democrat running for this seat is Detrick Deburr. With Denton County rapidly transitioning blue, this also would be a seat primed for flipping.

HD121—Steve Allison: Allison was one of the last Republican moderates, and he went against Greg Abbott, so he’s out. The GOP primary went to Marc Lahood. This is a seat that could flip, though. The Democratic primary winner, Laurel Swift, will give Republicans a good run this year.

This was a massive shakeup, but that isn’t all.

Which Republicans will have a runoff election?

HD01—Gary VanDeaver: Although VanDeaver has always been known for his pro-education stance, he wasn’t for Abbott’s vouchers, which earned him the mark of death. Going against him in the runoff is far-right Republican Chris Spenser.

HD21—Dade Phelan: If you remember, Dade Phelan’s opponent, David Covey, got the orange one’s endorsement and made a commercial where every third word was “Trump.” A lot of money and effort went into these races, with Covey at 46% and Phelan at 43%. Neither reached the benchmark of 50%. Many Republican politicians are saying no matter what happens, it’ll be the end of Phelan’s speakership.

HD33— Justin Holland: We will have to revisit what happened here because a few weeks back, I caught a few minutes of a debate between Holland and Trump-hanger-on Katrina Pierson (Yes, that Katrina Pierson), and the audience was booing Holland. Pierson came in with 39%, and Holland came in with 38%, sending them to a runoff in May.

HD44—John Kuempel: Kuempel was another one who went against the grain; his Republican opponent, Alan Schoolcraft, got endorsements from Trump, Abbott, and Paxton. Schoolcraft got 48% of the vote, while Kuempel got 44%.

HD58—DeWayne Burns: This race was so weird. Burns’ opponent, Helen Kerwin, received endorsements from all the whos-who. None of the Republicans seemed to be Team Burns. It should be a lesson to all of them: get in line or get out.

HD61—Frederick Frazier: Convicted criminal and habitual liar Frederick Frazier obtained 32% of the Republican vote, while his opponent, Keresa Richardson, got 40%. Richardson is a political activist in Collin County, and this should make for an interesting race. At the end of the day, both candidates are garbage.

HD64—Lynn Stucky: This is the second election in a row that Stucky has been caught in the crossfire of the far right. He survived last time by 98 votes. In 2022, he was running against Andy Hopper, a Maga extremist. This year’s runoff will also be against Andy Hopper. It’s like Groundhog’s Day. Each repeated election is more nauseating than the last.

HD91—Stephanie Klick: Just like the Stuck v. Hopper race was a repeat of 2022, Stephanie Klick’s race against ultra-Maga David Lowe is another repeat of the 2022 election. No one ever accused Republicans of being unpredictable.

The best thing about this is it shows how fractured the GOP is in many districts, which Democrats and grassroots should be targeting.

There are a lot of other Republican runoffs.

Some are Republicans running in seats that are safe Democrats, and others are in seats left open by retiring incumbents. Seventeen Republicans targeted by Abbott or Paxton have either been replaced or are facing replacement in May.

These seventeen newcomers are all further right than their predecessors. If one-fourth of the Republican body moves further right, what will the Texas House be like? Banning abortions and ending gender-affirming care is only where they started. That’s why it’ll be imperative for Democrats to do what they can to swing many of these races.

Some Republicans will continue to shout and complain about “closed primaries.” Let them. Democrats won’t vote for it, and the Republicans who benefit from it won’t vote for it. Republicans need to understand that this is the territory that comes along with reducing dropboxes, closing polling places, and racial gerrymandering in a state where they are a minority.

Everything is at stake.

Here are the full Texas House results from the New York Times (as of 5 pm).

(If you don’t know your House district, go here.)

There are hundreds of elections in Texas this year, and the GOP is in complete chaos. It will be an interesting election year. Over the next week, look for more breakdowns of the May runoffs and what we have in store for us in November. Stay tuned.

Important 2024 primary RUNOFF election days:

• April 29, 2024: Last day to register to vote.

• May 17, 2024: Last day to apply by mail

• May 20, 2024: First day of early voting.

• May 24, 2024: Last day of early voting.

• May 28, 2024: Last day to receive a ballot by mail.

• May 28, 2024: Election day.

LoneStarLeft’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Follow me on Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, Threads, YouTube, and Instagram.