Texas Early Voter Turnout Report

If you haven't voted yet, don't forget that Super Tuesday is tomorrow.

Mar 04, 2024

In 2020, well-meaning folks were sure Democrats would “flip the Texas House” based on primary election turnout. However, it’s important to remember that primary turnout doesn’t dictate November turnout. That matters in 2020, and it matters now.

Primary elections are intra-party contests where political party members choose candidates for the upcoming general election. These elections often attract a more engaged, ideologically driven subset of active voters in their parties’ processes. The general election is where candidates from different parties compete against each other. The electorate in general elections is broader and more diverse, including the party faithful who vote in primaries and more moderate and independent voters who may skip primaries but participate in general elections.

I lead with that because I know how easy it is for Democrats to feel discouraged in Texas. But you shouldn’t feel discouraged. You should feel motivated to keep pushing on. We can’t give up, even when we appear defeated (we aren’t.

There were 200,000 fewer Texans who opted to cast their ballots early in the primary races, with in-person voting taking place on Super Tuesday, March 5. During the 2020 primary season, 2 million people voted early, dropping to 1.8 million during the 2024 campaign.

According to the Texas Secretary of State:

597,177 Democrats voted early in this primary election.
1,223,576 Republicans voted early in this primary election.

Tomorrow is election day, so if you still haven’t made it to the polls, don’t forget!

What do these early voting numbers tell us?

Republicans’ higher turnout in primaries can be attributed to several factors, chief among them being the long-standing control they have held over Texas politics. This control transforms Republican primaries into pivotal events, often seen as the de facto decision point for who will hold many of the state’s elected positions. Here’s why:

Texas has been a stronghold for the Republican Party for decades. This dominance means that winning the Republican primary is equivalent to winning the general election due to the party’s stronghold in the state. The primary, therefore, becomes the most competitive and crucial stage for candidates aspiring for office, drawing higher voter engagement from Republicans who recognize the significance of these intra-party contests.
There’s also a psychological component to consider. For Republicans in Texas, the primary is not just a process of selecting candidates; it’s a reaffirmation of their party’s control and influence. This sense of ownership and direct impact on the political future motivates a higher turnout. On the other hand, Democrats, who have been in the minority, might view their primary participation as less immediately consequential, given the uphill battle they face in the general election.

For Democrats, these early voting numbers should not be a cause for despair but a call to action. Understanding the enthusiasm gap in primary elections is crucial for developing strategies to increase engagement among Democratic voters. It shows the importance of building a compelling narrative that motivates the base, not just for the general election but starting from the primaries.

Efforts to mobilize and energize the Democratic electorate need to focus on the long-term goal of changing the political landscape of Texas, emphasizing that every vote counts at every stage of the election process.

Super Tuesday is tomorrow, so there is plenty of time to get those numbers up.

Where did people show up?

Data courtesy of Ryan Data.

Rural Republicans showed up in much higher numbers than urban Republicans in almost every county. Tarrant County being the only outlier, the GOP showed up in higher numbers than their urban counterparts.

Border Democrats have shown up in higher numbers than the rest of the state. This could spell good news for Roland Gutierrez, a border Democrat running for the US Senate.

It’s surprising to see that border Democrats are showing up in higher numbers than the rest of the Democrats throughout the state. Since border Democrats typically have a lower turnout. Could this be a sign of the borderlands becoming more civically engaged? Let’s hope so.

Early voter turnout has been low for both parties in the most important counties. That includes Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and El Paso Counties. In the general election in November, turnout in these counties will make or break the 2024 elections.

How does this compare to previous years?

Republicans are slightly up in early voting, but between early voting and election day for the primaries, Republican numbers haven’t budged much in many years. However, early voting for Democrats is down compared to both 2020 and 2022.

I’m not super worried about this trend. I have four Democrats in my family who didn’t vote in the primary (even though I told them to) but will vote in the November election.

I believe that since Democrats haven’t had competitive primaries in decades, there is less willingness to participate than what we will see in November when Democrats will be more anxious to vote against Trump and Trumpism.

Currently, the Republicans have a 625,000 vote advantage over the Democrats.

It also should be noted that in 2020, the Democrats had a very competitive primary; this year, they do not. In Texas, Democrats have been showing up for presidential elections for years, but not others. Again, this is why it’s so hard to predict what these early voting trends mean for November.

Democratic women are showing up in much higher numbers than men.

Early voter turnout in the Republican primary is 49.3% women and 47.9% men. However, early voter turnout in the Democratic primary is 57% women and only 39.8% men. This speaks to how much more motivated Democratic women are to protect their rights and bodily autonomy.

Issues that our state government is pushing deeply impact women, and getting Democratic women to the polls in November could be the key to flipping multiple House seats.

The data tells us that Democratic campaigns could benefit from tailoring their messaging to continue engaging women, particularly on issues that they are passionate about and that drive them to the polls (reproductive rights, healthcare, education, and gender equality).

Shall older people determine our future?

The older a person is, the more likely they are to vote because they’ve lived long enough to see firsthand how important voting is.

82% of early Republican voters are over 50, compared to 77% of early Democratic voters.

A little bit of good news, though. More early Democratic voters fit in the under-50 crowd than early Republican voters. This shows that the youth is likelier to vote blue than red. The key has to be getting them to the polls.

If Democrats can get the youth vote to turn out, things in this state will be a lot better sooner.

Related. This morning from the Texas Tribune: “A fraction of Texans will vote in Tuesday’s primary. They’ll decide who runs the state.”

Once again, TOMORROW IS SUPER TUESDAY! If you haven’t voted yet, make sure you do.

No matter what the final turnout is for the primary elections in Texas, don’t let it make you feel discouraged or down. Remember that this is not a gauge for November turnout, and with eight months to go, we have plenty of work that needs to be done.

On Wednesday, I’ll have a full report of the election results and which runoff races we need to be watching. If you’re looking for live results tomorrow night, after the polls close (at 7 PM), here are some links to watch:

As Texas prepares for Super Tuesday, voters must recognize the power of their participation. Regardless of the party, it’s evident that engagement in primaries, especially among certain demographic groups, is a pivotal factor in the ongoing effort to shape Texas’s political future. Looking beyond the primaries, the key for Democrats is to maintain momentum, address the issues that resonate with their electorates, and turn out in force in November. Until then, every vote is a step toward the future Texans envision for their state.

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