Scott Braddock Mulls Over Dems Flipping Nine House Seats - Do I Agree?
Analyzing the Odds: Can Texas Democrats Make a Legislative Breakthrough in 2024?
Last week’s episode of Texas Take with Scott Braddock and Jeremy Wallace got into the nitty-gritty of what we might see regarding Democratic performance in the Texas House in the November election.
(You can listen to the full episode here.)
As Texas Democrats, we reach for hope as we trudge through each election cycle. There are many legitimate reasons to be optimistic. Last week’s episode of Texas Take mostly validated what I’ve been saying for months, but I want to talk specifically about the points Braddock made and shine more light on some of the races Democrats need to focus on for the Texas House.
The most important thing to remember in the fight for sanity in Texas is that if the Texas House flips, we end the Republican agenda. We need to flip 12 seats to flip the House. Could we do it this election? Anything is possible, but we might also come under that number, giving Republicans a razor-thin majority.
The part of the episode about Democratic gains in Texas this year starts just after the one-hour mark.
Braddock and Wallace deliberate over Harris County and what their dominance means for Texas Democrats.
As everyone knows, Harris County is now a big, blue beast, getting bigger and bluer each election cycle. As of the 2020 election cycle, Harris County alone accounted for 14% of the total votes in Texas. In a state of 30 million people living across 254 counties, that’s a significant portion.
During the 2020 election, over 918,000 Democrats voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 election. This year, the Harris County Democratic Party (HCDP) is planning big things. Their target Democratic voter number is 1.1 million. Based on the population growth, they can do that or even exceed it. A recent fundraising email from the HCDP said they wanted to enlist 8,000 volunteers for this election.
In 2020, Biden carried Harris County by 200,000 votes. Wallace said on Texas Take, “In this next cycle, are we going to get over 300,000+ votes for Biden, over the Republican?”
If the Harris County Democrats can follow through and get 1.1 million Democratic votes, with the same turnout they saw in 2020 (66.15%), Biden will carry Harris County by over 300,000 votes. Now, if by chance, the HCDP can get the voter turnout in Harris County up to 70%, it may be closer to 500,000 votes for Biden over Trump.
The Joe Biden and Colin Allred campaigns will not be wasting any money if they invest it into getting out the vote (GOTV) in Harris County.
They briefly discuss the far-right’s Contract with Texas.
Last week, I also covered this and explained its similarities to the Southern Manifesto.
Braddock agreed that this stupid political stunt will ultimately hurt Republicans in the Texas House in the next legislative session. Braddock did call the things that far-right Republicans wanted to do “flat-out unconstitutional.”
The cards are lining up for a razor-thin Republican majority in the Texas House, while completely excluding Democrats from the legislative process will equal one hell of a shit-show session for the 89th. On the bright side, if that’s what happens, Republicans won’t get anything done.
At the one hour and fifteen-minute mark, Braddock speculates Democratic wins in the Texas House this year.
He said, “I’m looking at the map now, across the state, and looking at where Democrats might win seats this fall. We’ve talked about this in the context of school voucher discussions and debates. I think that there are as many as… I’m not predicting this… There are as many as nine or so seats that Democrats could flip in the Texas House this fall.”
Why did he interject, “I’m not predicting this?” Perhaps he doesn’t want to be held to that number, or maybe he feels confident. It’s hard to read what he meant by that interjection, but I agree with his assessment of flipping nine seats (or so).
Braddock continued with Dallas County and talked about how Colin Allred is from Dallas County. If Allred can get 60% of the vote in Dallas County, it would automatically flip the two remaining Republican House seats in Dallas County.
In 2020, MJ Hager got 61% of the vote in Dallas County, while Biden got 65%. Since Allred is a Dallas native, I expect him to get a higher vote than Hager—perhaps 65%. Given Braddock’s assessment, the two House seats that would flip are:
HD108
HD112
I agree with this and think it’s possible that those seats flip and Dallas no longer has any Republican representation in the Texas House. 🥳
Braddock stated that because of the way the House seats are drawn in Harris County, the Republicans are probably safe there. I'm afraid I have to disagree with that.
House District 138, currently held by Republican Lacey Hull, is a flippable seat. This district, like many others, is predominantly composed of minority populations, yet it is presently represented by an individual who consistently supports policies aligned with white supremacist ideologies.
Additionally, the Republican incumbent, Lacey Hull, has faced numerous controversies, including allegations of engaging in multiple extramarital affairs with fellow members of the Texas House of Representatives.
Despite this district leaning +5.4 towards Trump in the 2020 election, Houston's ongoing rapid growth suggests that Democrat Stephanie Morales is poised to possibly flip this seat in this election.
Braddock then turns his attention to Bexar County.
He talks about how moderate Republican Steve Allison was recently outed by extremist Marc LaHood and how that seat, as well as the one held by John Lujan, could very likely flip this election.
Those seats are:
HD118
HD121
Not only do I agree, but I have also previously predicted both of those seats as flips.
Braddock said, “In the valley, at least one seat could flip.”
He meant HD37 in Cameron County. Of all the potential flips this year, I feel most confident about this one. It is questionable that this district was initially won by a Republican. In the 2022 election, the Republican candidate secured victory with a narrow 3% margin amid a voter turnout of approximately 30%, which was notably low. However, with the upcoming presidential election, voter participation is expected to be significantly higher this year.
Braddock then talked about suburban Texas.
He said, “Keep an eye on the seat that Mitch Little just won” in Denton County (HD65). I agree with that. Furthermore, I think HD63 in Denton is also up for grabs.
Braddock went on to talk about the abortion issue, the rising tide for Democratic voters in urban areas, and how pissed off women are in suburbia. This is going to equate to more flips in the Texas House. He also predicted that HD52 in Williamson County, held by Caroline Harris, could flip.
He also mentioned HD26, which was previously held by Jacey Jetton and flipped in the Republican primary to a further-right candidate. Braddock believes that this seat could also flip for Democrats. Although I think it can be done, I previously did not discuss flipping this seat for Democrats. In a later article, I’ll follow up with more details about this race.
The last place Braddock suggested watching was Bell County. Those two seats, HD54 and HD55, are currently held by Republicans, but Bell County is primed for flipping. I have previously discussed these two seats, but I don’t yet feel that this is their year. Perhaps I need to look harder at what Democrats are doing in Bell County this election cycle and revisit this soon.
Scott Braddock’s final statement on Democrats flipping seats this November.
He said, “Democrats could win three or four seats in the House without even trying. They could get to five or six if there is a surge in the suburbs. Then, if there is just this anti-Trump sentiment all over the place, it could kind of be like 2018, part two, when Democrats picked up twelve new seats in the Texas House.”
Here is what I said in March:
It seems that Braddock disagreed with me on HD138 and didn’t mention HD63, but he could have included it in his “suburban flips,” which he said could be five or six but didn’t list all of them.
Overall, Braddock and I seem to agree on which seats we should focus on and what November might look like for Texas Democrats. As Democrats focus their efforts on pivotal counties and districts, the goal of flipping the Texas House seems within reach, albeit challenging.
Texas Democrats must harness the momentum and rally their base to achieve a significant political turnaround. With the stakes higher than ever, the upcoming election represents not just a battle for seats but a fight for Texas's future direction. Vote early, vote often, just vote.
Important 2024 primary RUNOFF election days:
April 29, 2024: Last day to register to vote.
May 17, 2024: Last day to apply by mail
May 20, 2024: First day of early voting.
May 24, 2024: Last day of early voting.
May 28, 2024: Last day to receive a ballot by mail.
May 28, 2024: Election day.
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could u 'reflect' on the Soros/Beto alumni strategy of ignoring Tarrant County.....it no longer feels like a write off with R self inflicted wounds of Children's heath care retreat and the Ukraine vote.
call me naive but i think an awful lot of Lockheed/Bell/JNAS/aviation guys and gals might just think that it is un-american and hard on their paychecks to vote against Ukraine funding
Texas Democrats need to pay attention in the panhandle as well. There is a growing movement in the party. Our citizens are in huge healthcare deserts due to the vast rural areas here and lack of OB/GYNs in many of the Panhandle’s small towns and communities. Amarillo, the major healthcare center for the panhandle does not have enough pediatricians and OB/GYNs. To say women are pissed is an understatement. The rural areas are loosing their voice in the school vouchers now that Four Price has decided not to run. We need to focus on and throw support for Tim Gassaway (D) running for house seat 87. He is facing Amarillo’s own oligarch, Alex Fairly’s daughter, 25 yr old Caroline Fairly. Tim Dunn and his PAC sure love Alex’s money and he, Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton and Dan Patrick (Texas own 3 stooges) have endorsed her. They also like Alex’s money. Oh and let me add the Panhandle wildfires and the poor response by agriculture’s own Sid Miller who told a resident to go jump in the lake and he was not grateful. The Texas Panhandle is ripe for change.