Rising Turnout, Rising Stakes: Texas Early Voting Continues To Smashes Records

Texas voters are continuing to shatter records, but will it be enough to flip the state?

All day, I waited for a full update from the Secretary of State (SoS) regarding the Day 1 early voter turnout. Three major counties and ten small rural counties are still not showing their results on the SoS website for Day 1 of early voting. Are the reporting counties slow? Is it the SoS’s fault? That’s unclear at the moment, but we’re already starting to see some numbers from Day 2 coming out, so let’s talk about where we’re at.

Bell, Hays, and Smith are the three major counties that still don’t appear on the SoS website.

• Hays County is blue.

• Bell County is on the verge of blue.

• And Smith County is trending blue, but it will probably be a few more cycles until we can talk about it flipping.

Discounting those three counties plus the smaller, rural ten, here is what the SoS is reporting:

• Day 1, in-person votes: 886,526

• Day 1, in-person + mail-in votes: 1,049,166

This is from the first day of early voting in 2020:

Source: Texas Secretary of State

In 2024, we beat the 2020 record for in-person voting by over 130,000 votes, and that’s still without several counties reporting.

I do not think we’ll hit the 1.1 million in-person + mail-in vote record we set in 2020. We’ll probably come close, but due to COVID-19, there were likely many more mail-in votes in 2020. That’s okay because our in-person voting for Day 1 will likely be close to 1 million, a new record.

There is also more good news regarding Day 2. We’ll get to that. But first…

What’s up with the counties that aren’t showing up?

The Bell County Elections Office is aware of a delay in posting the Daily Early Voting Reports and Rosters for Monday, October 21, as reported by 25 News KXXV. That said, they had their highest single-day voter turnout, with 7,844 reported voting on the first day of early voting.

Of course, that seems small compared to big, blue Houston, but two Texas House seats are up for grabs. This county is on the verge of flipping, and they’ve historically had low turnout. So, this is great for Democrats.

Hays County’s Election website reports over 10,000 Day 1 in-person and mail-in votes.

Smith County’s website doesn’t report its numbers. Instead, it has a link to the SoS website. 🤦🏻‍♀️ According to KLTV, Smith County also saw record Day 1 voter turnout, nearly double what it saw in 2020.

By the way, KXAN is also tracking turnout by vote total:

Everything is looking excellent. It’s looking like we’d expect an increased voter turnout. But, remember, it’s all gas, no breaks. We still have to get through 14 more days. And these next two weeks will probably be one of the longest years of our lives.

More good news.

Harris County is reporting over 242,000 in-person votes total for Day 1 + Day 2.

Although they didn’t break their record on Day 1, Harris County saw a higher voter turnout on Day 2 in 2024 than Day 2 in 2020.

We’re expecting the Harris County Democratic Party to do some heavy-duty lifting in the mission to turn Texas blue. They’ve made it their goal to turn out 1.1 million Democratic voters this year, and if we need 6 million to flip the state, they’re responsible for 1/6th of Texas’ total Democratic turnout.

This is achievable, and not only do they know it, but the Kamala Harris campaign also seems to understand it, which is why Kamala Harris is holding a rally in Houston on Friday.

Here is the event if you want to sign up for tickets.

Kamala Harris seems to think Texas is in play. 😁

It’s been 30 years since a presidential nominee campaigned in Texas so close to Election Day. This is a big deal.

Bexar County had another record-breaking day of voter turnout today, with 48,067 ballots cast, which was higher than Day 1’s early voter turnout. On day 2, Bexar County is nearly 25,000 votes ahead of where they were in 2020. If they continue this momentum, we’ll probably see several flips here.

Denton County’s final count for yesterday was just under 50,000, which is 17,000 higher than it was in 2020. If they continue their momentum, we could see more than one flip in this county. I’ll have further analysis on Denton soon because we’re seeing a lot of energy up there.

Here’s another reason for you to smile:

VP-nominee Tim Walz called Texas’ newest resident Elon Musk a “dipshit.”

The momentum we see in these early days of voting is a promising sign for Democrats in Texas.

While we’re still waiting on complete data from a handful of counties, the record-breaking turnout so far should energize everyone who wants to see real change in this state. The increased engagement shows that the political landscape is shifting in places that have traditionally been red or leaning Republican.

But we can’t afford to be complacent. This is only the beginning, and there are still two weeks to go. The pressure is on, and every single vote matters. It will require sustained effort until the polls close. With Kamala Harris showing up to support the fight, it’s clear that all eyes are on Texas.

Remember, it’s not just about beating the turnout numbers from 2020—it’s about flipping Texas blue. It’s about healthcare, education, reproductive rights, and voting rights. The stakes couldn’t be higher, nor could the energy we bring into this fight. So, please take a deep breath, rally your friends and family, and let’s keep pushing forward. Texas’ future is in our hands.

More updates tomorrow.

• October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.

• November 1: Last day to early vote.

• November 5: Election day!

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