Kamala Harris Will Be In Houston On Thursday - Is Texas In Play?
Why Texas Might Turn Blue in 2024.
If you haven’t heard already, Kamala Harris will be in Houston on Thursday to speak at the teachers union convention. With only 104 days left until the November election, many people are asking, “With Kamala coming to Texas right now, does that mean Texas is in play?”
The short answer: Yes.
However, when discussing Texas’ fate and future, I almost always have someone say to me:
“Texas will never be blue.”
“Texas won’t be blue for generations.”
“They always say Texas will be blue, but it never is.”
And so on. However, the data tells us that Texas has moved left consistently since 2000 and will continue to do so.
Texas has moved 16.2 points to the left since 2000. Over the last two decades, Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, and Travis Counties have flipped blue.
There isn’t a data analyst or pollster who has looked at the trends in Texas in the 21st Century who doesn’t believe that Texas will eventually flip.
Even the Republicans know that they’re losing numbers. That’s why, every legislative session, they jump through hoops to pass more voter oppression laws and disenfranchise more people. It’s their only winning strategy.
The only reason that Republicans still hold Texas is because of our voter turnout. Here are the voter turnout rates for every state (and DC) in 2020:
Texas was dead last in turnout. (This was based on eligible voters, not registered voters.) In 2020, only 51.3% of eligible Texas voters actually voted.
Here is what that looked like:
In 2020:
5.6 million registered voters didn’t vote.
Another 4.6 million eligible voters weren’t even registered.
As the age-old adage goes, Texas is not a red state. It’s a non-voting state.
We’re left to wonder if the naysayers who constantly cry, “Texas will never turn blue,” instead declared, “Texas will be blue if people just vote,” would the non-voters stop believing their vote doesn’t count and make it to the polls?
I’m inclined to think so. I’ve discussed the data in Texas extensively, and if you’ve missed any of my previous installments:
Which Texas Counties Should We Expect To Be Blue In November?
Which Texas House Seats Should Democrats Focus On This Year And Beyond
If you haven’t caught on already, I spend so much time on the data and trends because Texans need to know that we can flip Texas. We can flip Texas this year. We can flip the Texas House this year. Kamala Harris can win Texas this year. Colin Allred can win Texas this year.
All we have to do is show up and vote. If we want everyone to show up and vote, then it should be all hands on deck. This year, we should all be doing what it takes to get out the vote.
What is it going to take to flip Texas this year?
We only had 631,000 fewer votes than Republicans in 2020, when 5.6 million registered voters didn’t vote.
I don’t know what the magic number will be this year since we expect a depressed Republican turnout, and our state has grown so much since 2020. If Democrats can break 7 million votes this year, it’s over for Republicans in the House, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump.
I have been working on a series that breaks down the data in each county, what the numbers will look like in November, and what we should expect. Simultaneously, I’ve been trying to determine if we can get 7 million votes this year.
If you missed it:
Based on these five counties alone, we’re looking at 2.9 million Democratic votes in November.
Are there another 4.1 million votes left in the 249 counties we haven’t discussed yet?
I believe there are and intend to prove it in this series, which I will continue to publish in the next 104 days. (Don’t worry; there won’t be 249 more installments, probably more like 15.)
So, is Texas in play?
You better believe it is.
The youth vote is critical. One of the most significant factors contributing to Texas’ shift is the demographic change, particularly the increase in young, diverse voters. Millennials and Generation Z now make up a substantial portion of the electorate. These younger voters tend to lean more progressive and are more likely to support Democratic candidates. If we can energize and mobilize this group, we can significantly impact the outcome of the election.
Urban areas in Texas, such as Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, have already become Democratic strongholds. The suburbs, which have traditionally been Republican, are also shifting. Suburban women, in particular, are turning away from the Republican Party due to issues like reproductive rights, healthcare, and education. These changing dynamics in the suburbs could provide the edge Democrats need to flip key districts.
Grassroots movements and local organizations have worked tirelessly to register new voters, educate the public, and get out the vote. These efforts are crucial in overcoming the barriers created by voter suppression laws. Organizations like the Texas Organizing Project (TOP), MOVE Texas, Powered by People, and Battleground Texas are on the front lines, ensuring every eligible voter can cast their ballot.
As we approach the election, it is crucial to maintain momentum and focus on turnout. Every vote counts, and every effort to get someone to the polls matters. Texas is on the verge of a historic shift, and we must make it happen.
Texas is indeed in play. With the right strategies and relentless effort, we can turn Texas blue. This election is not just about winning a state; it’s about shaping the future of our nation. Let’s continue to work together, support our candidates, and get out the vote. Together, we can make history.
Vote early, vote often, just vote.
August 19: Last day for write-in candidates to declare their candidacy.
October 7: Last day to register to vote.
October 21: First day to early vote.
October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!
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if i didn't post already Hood County Chair Adriene Martin was featured on Spectrum News about her Tik-Tok campaign to inform her constituents that in Texas u CANNOT REGISTER TO VOTE ONLINE...alot of new Texans may think that Texas is a modern democratic state and make this mistake...in fact the website is somewhat misleading.
i queried TCDP and its Chair Crystal Gayden what if anything TCDP is doing about voter intimidation and polling place security.....
i will let u know if i ever get a reply.
one good result...for the 2nd time in her administration the Tarrant County Democratic Chair sent a email about Kamala.....The other email being Shielda Jackson Lee's death.
Our Chair,Crystal Gayden , an attorney, is black.
Opal Lee features prominently on the website even as the Opal Lee walk was in Dallas.
Never once has she sent any regards about Biden or any Hispanic or white Dems.
Look lady, you represent every Tarrant citizen, not just Tarrant Blacks.
I think she is missing that point and that would explain so much.