Jennie Birkholz For House District 52
The Blue Battle 2024: Inside the Democratic races.
Note: today is the primary runoff election day. Runoff races are happening across the state. If one is in your city/district, hurry up and get to the polls by 7:00 PM. I’ll have the full results of the runoff for you tomorrow.
From now until November, I will cover as many of these races as possible, especially the flippable ones. If Democrats want to flip the Texas House this November, they must flip 12 seats. We will quickly see six to nine seats flip and could make it to 12 with the suitable candidates, who are well-funded and working their tails off.
Texas House District 52 (HD52) is one district that is looking favorable for Democrats. Let’s discuss the race, the candidates, and the data.
Who is Jennie Birzholz?
Whenever I’ve asked someone about Jennie Birkholz, the response has always been overwhelmingly positive: “She puts in the work and shows up.” Birkholz is a central Texas native with deep roots in her community, a proud mother, and a recognized national healthcare expert. Her journey is a testament to her commitment to public service and advocacy.
Her professional career spans two decades, focusing on trauma-informed care systems, integrated care, and rural health. Birkholz founded a national healthcare consulting firm that addresses pressing issues such as mental health, the opioid crisis, and social determinants of health, striving to improve lives through innovative solutions. Her expertise has led her to serve on two White House Commissions focused on behavioral health and the opioid crisis, demonstrating her influence and dedication at the highest levels of government.
Living in Round Rock ISD with her husband, a school psychologist, and their two young boys, Birkholz and her family actively participate in their community. They volunteer for local causes and campaigns. In 2021, Birkholz’s work took her to Uvalde, where she engaged with community members to understand their challenges, particularly in mental healthcare, economic opportunity, and community connections. Her work became even more critical following the tragic Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde. Witnessing the aftermath and the legislature’s failure to provide adequate support solidified her resolve to pursue systemic changes at the policy level.
Birkholz’s decision to run for HD52 is driven by her desire to bring her experience to the state legislature. She aims to address critical issues such as public education, healthcare access, and local governance.
Who is she running against?
The Republican incumbent of HD52 is Dan Patrick’s chief of staff’s wife, Caroline Harris-Davila. She has been unpopular in her district because of her alignment with Dan Patrick and the far-right.
Unfortunately, Harris-Davila, like so many other Republican women, does not make her own decisions. Instead, she votes the way Dan Patrick wants, or perhaps her husband tells her.
She was a co-sponsor of legislation prohibiting cities from mandating water breaks for outside workers.
Harris-Davila joined Dan Patrick’s fight against Hispanic communities last session, voting to militarize border communities, co-sponsored a bill to waste billions on 10 miles of wall, and voted in favor of the “Show Me Your Papers” bill.
She voted to ban DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) on college campuses, which was by far the most racist bill to come from the legislature last year.
And while we’re seeing an increase in extreme weather and sweltering heat, it should be noted that Harris-Davila is a climate change denier, made evident by her votes. She voted to ban cities from adopting clean energy. She voted to ban ESG from Texas. She even voted to make Texas an Oil and Gas Sanctuary State🤮.
For extra cruelty, Caroline Harris-Davila voted against allowing disabled people to skip the line at elections.
These are all ideas embraced by Dan Patrick and embraced by Caroline Harris-Davila.
Sadly, someone so young could have so much hatred and disdain for their fellow human beings. Caroline is only 30 years old and served as the youngest member of the Texas House last year.
During her 2022 election, her ex-sister-in-law made many allegations on TikTok regarding Harris-Davila, including that she was aware of abuse happening with her brother and his children, and she tried to cover it up.
Caroline Harris-Davila has been very vocal about her evangelicalism and has publicly stated she believes one day she’ll be raptured.
What about HD52?
Republicans drew HD52 to be whiter than the rest of Texas. They do this because they know the majority of white people vote Republican, and the majority of everyone else votes Democrat.
However, this district is more affluent than Texas as a whole. What we know about wealthier Anglo districts in Texas is they generally lean further left. The more affluent and educated an Anglo neighborhood is, the more likely they are to vote blue.
This is why, even though this district is 57% Anglo, it is not a heavy Trump district. This district was only a +4.3 Trump in the 2020 election.
A +4.3 Trump district in 2020 should be a +1 Biden district in 2024. Of course, that remains to be seen, but several other factors are in play when considering HD52 as a voting district.
Williamson County’s most significant annual population increase was 4.7% between 2020 and 2021. Between 2010 and 2022, the county grew by an average of 3.9% annually. Like everywhere else in Texas, Williamson County’s Anglo population is shrinking, further favoring Democrats.
Williamson County is one of the fastest-growing counties in Texas, which is generally bad news for Williamson County Republicans.
The Greater Austin Area, which includes Williamson, Bastrop, Caldwell, and Hays Counties, has gone from +34.7 (R) in 2000 to +2.1 (D) in 2020.
This means that big, blue Austin residents are moving out into neighboring counties, turning them blue in the process. It’s urban sprawl, and we’re seeing it in suburban counties across the state.
In 2020, with a 76.87% turnout, Williamson County went blue.
Of course, as we all know, Democrats largely stayed home in 2022, but even with a 54.34% turnout in Williamson County, Abbott only won by 0.5 points. Even though we know Democrats largely stayed home in 2022, Williamson County Democrats only lost by a hair. That tells us that Williamson County is continuing to trend blue.
While there was a Democratic candidate for HD52 in 2022, he was severely underfunded and lacked the necessary campaign tools (like a social media presence).
2024 will look much more like 2020 than 2022, and Williamson County will be bluer. If Williamson County voters can manage another 76% voter turnout in November, my prediction is that Biden will win with a three—to five-point margin, which is good news for down-ballot candidates.
What will it take for Jennie Birkholz to win?
For Birkholz to win in Texas House District 52, several critical factors must come together. While the demographics and trends in Williamson County are favorable, translating this potential into a win requires strategic action and robust support.
Campaign funding is the lifeblood of any election effort. Birkholz will need substantial financial support to compete effectively against Dan Patrick’s puppet. It will enable the production of high-quality campaign materials, including flyers, yard signs, and promotional items, to increase visibility. Funding will also allow for hiring skilled campaign staff to manage operations, strategy, and voter outreach.
A dedicated and active volunteer base can make all the difference in a tight race. Volunteers will be essential for blockwalking, where personal interactions are highly effective in mobilizing voters. They can help canvass neighborhoods, engage with residents, and distribute campaign literature. Phone banking is another critical area, with volunteers calling voters to inform them about Birkholz’s platform, remind them to vote, and gather support. Volunteers will also be needed to represent the campaign at community events, local meetings, and forums to build name recognition and connect with potential supporters.
From now until November, Birkholz’s campaign must be relentless. This means holding frequent campaign events, including rallies, fundraisers, and public speaking engagements, to keep momentum and visibility high. Ensuring ongoing communication with voters through newsletters, email updates, and social media posts is vital for maintaining engagement and support. A data-driven strategy should identify and target key demographics and areas that require additional focus and resources.
You can learn more, volunteer, or donate to Jennie Birkholz on her website and follow her on Facebook or Twitter.
Vote early, vote often, just vote.
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My district. We have many people here who voted for James Talarico years ago, when the district flipped. The district continues to rapidly grow, especially out here in the Hutto, Taylor areas where I work and where Samsung construction is happening.
to the extent this helps the down ballot..
some wag commented months ago
what person, who didn't vote for Trump in 2020 is now going to do so?