Is It Possible To Flip The Texas House In 2024?
Flipping the Texas House is the only way to stop the GOP's fascist agenda. But can it be done in 2024?
The 2024 election cycle is only 134 days away, and the stakes have never been higher for Texans. With the GOP holding a firm grip on the Texas House, the implementation of increasingly extreme policies continues to threaten the rights and well-being of countless residents. From restrictive voting laws to draconian measures on reproductive rights, the current trajectory points to an ever-narrowing path for democracy in the Lone Star State. But amidst this bleak landscape, a question arises: is it possible to flip the Texas House in 2024?
It absolutely is, but we have to fight like hell.
What’s at stake?
As long as Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick hold the levers of power, no major progressive legislation will be made into law. Although we will not have a shot at taking them out again until 2026, we can completely shut down their agenda this year.
If Democrats could flip the Texas House, they could block every conservative priority from reaching the second chamber. So, we won’t move forward in the 2025 legislative session. We would stand still, which is much better than going backward like Republicans want.
What do Republicans have planned under a Republican majority in 2025:
Banning IVF and some forms of birth control.
Travel restrictions for pregnant women.
Vouchers could pass, which would:
Further, defunding public schools,
Resegregate school children.
CBD would be banned.
The border will be further militarized.
Republicans will continue wasting taxpayer money on political stunts.
The GOP would reaffirm their love for oil and gas by passing bills that harm us.
The LGBTQ community would again be their target.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg. As someone who has watched Republicans in Texas for many years, I can attest that there is always a worse. The Texas Republican’s end goal is Christian Fascism, and they will push at it until none of us have rights left.
Again, the stakes have never been higher for Texans.
Democrats would need to flip 12 seats to flip the Texas House.
Do we have 12 flippable seats? Maybe, and we’ll get into that, but first, we have to discuss some out-of-our-control factors and other interesting data that could impact what we see in November.
In 2023, Democrats overperformed in every special election by an average of +11 points. Will this pattern repeat in November? Will it repeat in Texas?
Democratic women overperformed in the 2024 primary elections (but not in Texas).
Trump lost 22.16% of the primary vote, with over 17% going to Nikki Haley. How many of those votes will equate to never-Trump votes in November? How many Republicans who vote against Trump will also vote against Republicans down-ballot?
A few dozen MAGA extremists won their primary election against moderate Republicans? Will this lose moderate Republicans in those races?
What’s going to happen at Trump’s July 11 sentencing date? Will he just get probation, or will he actually be sentenced to prison? How will that outcome impact the November election?
If Trump is sentenced to prison, would that lead to another MAGA insurrection? And then how would that impact November?
Colin Allred is currently down in the polls but has plenty of time to turn that around. But what if he doesn’t?
Any politician from Biden to these House candidates could make a significant misstep in the next 134 days.
As you can see, many factors are out of our control. The country is such a volatile place right now that anything could happen, and it all could impact us in November.
Depending on who you ask, Texas Democrats need to see a turnout between 6.5 million and 7.5 million voters to flip Texas. I think anything over 7 million can get us to flip.
Here is why getting over 7 million is possible (if we fight like hell):
2004 Republican voters: 4.5 million
2020 Republican voters: 5.8 million
Republicans only gained 1.3 million new voters in 20 years.
2004 Democratic voters: 2.8 million
2020 Democratic voters: 5.2 million
We gained 2.4 million new voters in 20 years.
Our base is growing faster (nearly double) and closing the margins faster.
We would need 1.8 more million voters in 2024 than in 2020.
There are currently 17,948,242 registered voters in Texas. Democrats need only to ensure that 7 million of them show up and vote blue.
We only need to flip 12 seats.
The graph below is precinct-level data for each House District after redistricting—source: The Texas Politics Project.
(Feel free to save and share the graph on social media.)
There are 18 Republican-held seats that Trump had less than a +10 win in 2020 (based on the precinct-level data after redistricting.)
HD118 and HD37 will likely flip. These are districts that are otherwise blue and see Trump as unfavorable.
HD118: Full analysis here.
HD112 and HD108 are in Dallas and should flip if Dallas has a good turnout. This is Colin Allred’s home turf, so it should favor him.
Dallas County: Full analysis here.
HD121 is in Bexar County, and if we see even a 5% drop in Texas for Trump support compared to 2020, this seat could flip.
HD52 is in Williamson County, which went blue in 2020. WilCo has seen much growth in recent years and has been labeled a boom area. We should expect WilCo to be blue again in 2024, but will the margin be bigger than in 2020? It could be, and with Tump’s expected underperformance, this could be another flip.
HD52: Full analysis here.
HD138 is the lone Republican seat in Harris County that is nearly flipping this year. Republican Lacey Hull has a bad reputation in this +5.4 Trump district. Harris County has been going through a lot over the last year, and Harris County Democrats are aiming for a 1.1 million turnout in November. If they can achieve that, this seat may very well flip.
Harris County: Full analysis here.
HD63 and HD65 are two races to watch in Denton County. Denton County is experiencing a boom, and the communities in these districts are growing rapidly. Although these seats were +5 and +8 Trump in 2020, a high turnout in Denton County could flip either one of these seats.
HD65: Full analysis here.
HD54 and HD55, both in Bell County, look promising for Democrats. Bell County would be a solidly blue county if its voter turnout wasn’t so low. Many grassroots groups and activists are working on the turnout in Bell County this year. If they succeed, we could see one or both of these seats flip.
HD55: Full analysis here.
HD61, HD66, and HD67 are all in Collin County. Like Denton County, Collin is rapidly expanding, and its demographics are changing. Many analysts are expecting Collin County to go blue in November. How will that impact the down-ballot races? Raising money in these races is going to matter.
HD66: Full analysis here.
HD122, also in Bexar County, was an +8.8 Trump district. With so many Democratic hopes placed in Bexar County this year, let’s hope that equates to a high turnout. If Democrats over-perform and Republicans underperform, we can see up to three seats flip in Bexar County alone.
HD94, HD97, and HD96 are all in Tarrant County. This county is ground zero for Christian Nationalism, which has spurred left-wing activism all over the county. Voters in Tarrant County seem more engaged at the moment. If Democrats can carry that energy into November, we may also see several flips here.
HD94: Full analysis here.
There is a lot of opportunity for Texas Democrats this November.
Here are some other House seats (on top of the 18), which are races we should watch based on the unpopularity of the MAGA extremist, how hard the Democrat in the race is working, and the above-average growth rate of the area:
These seats are in Fort Bend, Harris, Denton, Tarrant, Lubbock, and Brazoria Counties. Once again, in urban/suburban areas. I’ll have detailed breakdowns of these races soon.
Given the number of flippable seats and the volatility of the political landscape, it’s clear that Texas Democrats have a challenging but achievable path ahead.
The key to success will be a combination of strategic campaigning, voter mobilization, and compelling messaging. Grassroots mobilization is crucial to drive voter turnout, especially in traditionally low-turnout areas like Bell County. Grassroots organizations and volunteers can engage in door-to-door canvassing, phone banking, and community events to increase voter awareness and participation.
Flipping the Texas House in 2024 is monumental, but Democrats can create the conditions necessary for success. The future of Texas hangs in the balance.
Are you looking for ways to get involved in your city and neighborhood?
If you haven’t already, I suggest everyone sign up for Mobilize. You can get alerted about political club events, block walking events, postcard parties, and phone banking sessions all in your area.
Can the Texas House flip in 2024? It can, but it’s going to take a lot of work. If you haven’t already signed up to volunteer for candidates, become a precinct chair, or do some other activity to turn Texas blue—this is the year. It’s all hands on deck.
Vote early, vote often, just vote.
134 days left until the November 5 election!
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Don't go make one. Just checking if there is one site that has all the candidates by seat.
Hey, do you have any kind of graphic that shows ALL Dem candidates who are running and what seat they are running in across the state. I'm asking people to get involved and help their local candidates, but I'd like to find a site that has all the candidates in one place, so that someone could just figure out which districts they're in and then look at the graphic to find the candidates who are running.