How Important Is Williamson County In The 2024 Election?
Diversity, Growth, and Politics: Wilco’s role in the upcoming election.
In 2020, regarding the fight against Confederate statues all over Texas, I met several Wilco Patriots group members, many of whom I still call friends today. The Wilco Patriots are a group of Williamson County locals working diligently to remove the ode to white supremacy on the lawn of the halls of justice.
If you haven’t been following the drama surrounding these Confederate rocks in Texas, I can tell you that Wilco Patriots is probably the most dedicated group fighting against these racist monuments in all of the state. A small group of them sits out in front of the statue every Saturday, collecting names for their petition and educating residents on the history and maliciousness of the traitorous eyesore. They’ve been doing this for years and have no plans to stop.
The only Saturdays you won’t find Wilco Patriots in front of the racist rock is when the Confederates beat them to it. In that case, you’ll find them 50-feet away.
Yes, I said the “Confederates.” These guys:
The Confederates in Williamson County are a bunch of old men who cosplay in “Confederate Grays” and also show up every Saturday, wanting to educate passers-by on how wonderful they thought America was when it still had slavery.
At the Georgetown Town Square, these two groups each show up in the morning every Saturday, hoping to be the first person to nab the space in front of the statue. Sometimes, it’s the Wilco Patriots. Sometimes, it’s the Confederates. It’s an ongoing battle.
When the tension between the two groups is high, you might catch one of them out there at 4:00 AM on a Saturday, hoping to grab the space before the other group. It’s been rumored that the leader of the Confederates, Shelby Little, sometimes spends Friday nights in his car in front of the courthouse to get to the space first.
Petty. And maybe it doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of the politics in this county of 670,000 people. Or perhaps it’s a microcosm of the overall politics in Williamson County, which could easily be defined as a “Battleground County” for Democrats.
Williamson County is only a “Battleground County” because the blue hasn’t seeped in yet.
There are very few places in Texas where Republicans have made gains in the last twenty years. Like the rest of Texas, Williamson County only gets bluer with each election, and we should expect this year to be no different.
Since 2000, Williamson County has moved nearly +22 points left, typically more than +5 points per cycle. The only election in which they didn’t scoot to the left was 2012,
(but we don’t talk about the 2012 election).
Despite Wilco getting bluer by the day, the Williamson County GOP thinks the Democratic gains will suddenly stop in their tracks.
Of course, there is plenty of logical follocy within their statement.
2022, like all midterm years, saw an underperformance from Democrats.
We don’t compare midterm elections to presidential elections, because they are two different animals.
All state seats (Senators and Reps) are deeply gerrymandered.
Even the Commissioners Court is gerrymandered to favor Republicans.
Moreover, despite 2022 being a low turnout year, the County Judge just barely scrapped by.
By the way, Judge Bill Gravell, who has been a roadblock regarding the Confederate statue, is up for election again in 2026. He isn’t safe and trust that local Democrats will continue to fight to remove him. Voter turnout in Williamson County in 2022 was only 53%.
In presidential years, Williamson County has had one of the higesest voter turnouts in the state, reaching 76.87% turnout in 2020.
This year, we should expect to see a similar voter turnout of 75% or higher.
According to the Williamson County Elections Department, there are currently 440,362 registered voters in this county. A 75% voter turnout would net 330,000 votes (all voters). How many of those will go to Democrats?
Democrats have made gains in every election here for over two decades (except for 2012), so it would be fair to assume that Democrats will make gains again. We just don’t know how much yet.
Williamson County is the 10th fastest growing county in America. Their population is not only booming, it’s also becoming more diverse.
This matters because we know that the majority of Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters vote for the Democratic ticket. While, the majority of white voters vote for the Republican ticket. We see this all around Texas, the more diverse a county is, the bluer they tend to be.
In 2020, Williamson County went blue by +1.5 points.
We should expect that margin to grow several points this year.
Who is on the ballot?
There are plenty of awful Republicans to choose from, as the Wilco GOP was so kind to remind us.
Congress.
TX10 - Michael McCaul (R). McCaul is one of the richest people in Congress with a net worth around $300 million. He’s a rank-and-file Republican that votes along party lines, meaning his votes are targeted at harming the most vulnerable among us, while enriching wealthy people (like himself). Republicans gave themselves an +18 point advantage in this district during the last redistricting.
Theresa Boisseau is the Democrat running against him. You can learn more about her on her website, Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
TX17 - Pete Sessions (R). Sessions is like a garden weed, you pull him out, but he always finds a way to sprout back up. Sessions was a Congressman in North Texas, then he lost his seat to Colin Allred (D) several years back. So, he just filed to run for this Central Texas district, even though he doesn’t live here. Republicans have a +22 point advantage in this district.
Mark Lorenzen is the Democrat running for this district. You can learn more about him on his website, Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
TX31 - John Carter (R). Judge Carter is, and has been for a long time, a hot mess. Carter will turn 83 this year and spends most of his time chasing conspiracy theories and being a shill for the fossil fuel industry.
Stuart Whitlow is the Democrat running against Carter. You can learn more about him on his website, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram.
TX37 - Lloyd Doggett (D). Doggett is in a safe blue seat, with a +52 Democratic advantage.
State Senate.
Neither State Senate seat in Williamson County is up for election this year. Both will be on the ballot in 2026.
State House.
HD20 - Terry Wilson (R). Wilson first won his election in 2016. He’s a pro-voucher Republican in this +13 Republican district. The voucher issue will hurt him, but will it be enough to flip this seat? Only if the Democrat in this race was running a well-funded, stellar campaign. It’s definitely an uphill battle.
Stephen Wyman is the Democrat running against Wilson. You can learn more about him from his website.
HD52 - Caroline Harris Davilla (R). Soon after Harris Davilla got married to Dan Patrick’s Chief of Staff, she went “speed dating” with the Wilco Young Republicans and the Wilco Log Cabin Republicans.
What?
It’s what they claimed.
Although, they didn’t explicitly say this event was in conjunction with the Log Cabin Republicans, there were several same-sex couples. So, it’s east to come to that conclusion.
More power to them, but Republicans only gave this district a +4.3 point advantage during redistricting in 2021. Considering how fast this area is growing and diversifying, we should expect to see this seat flip in November. That’s what a lot of people are working toward.
Jennie Birkholz is the Democrat running for HD52, you can learn more about her and this race particularly here: Jennie Birkholz For House District 52
HD136 - John Bucy (D). This is a safe blue seat which we should see get even bluer after the November election.
The momentum is on our side, but this is no time to get complacent.
Williamson County is transforming, and with each passing election, the Democratic base grows stronger. But change doesn’t happen on its own. Every vote, every volunteer hour, every conversation is what will make the difference. We know what’s at stake, and we know the challenges ahead. The Republicans are hoping to keep things as they are, but they can’t stop the wave that’s coming. Let’s show up, fight hard, and make this county a beacon of progress. The future is ours for the taking—let’s go get it.
Vote early, vote often, just vote.
Leading up to the November election, we’re discussing the data in some of the most important counties in the upcoming elections. If you missed the previous installments:
October 7: Last day to register to vote.
October 21: First day to early vote.
October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!
LoneStarLeft’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Follow me on Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, Threads, YouTube, and Instagram.