How Important Is Harris County In The 2024 Election?

The Battle for Texas: Why Harris County Is Ground Zero

Typo edits happened 🤦🏻‍♀️

Looking at Texas politics like a chessboard, Harris County is the queen piece—versatile, powerful, and pivotal in flipping the Lone Star State. As we are gearing up for the 2024 elections, all eyes are on Harris County, like a bright blue beacon in a sea of red.

Not only does Harris County account for a staggering 14+% of Texas’ total vote, but it also accounts for an impressive 17.5% of the Democratic vote in Texas. With each passing election, Harris County only gets bigger and bluer. In 2024, Harris County will have one of the most significant impacts in Texas.

Harris County is the largest county in the state and the third largest in America. The city of Houston comprises about half of Harris County’s population. The rest of the population lives in mid-sized cities like Pasadena or smaller towns like Baytown.

Harris County is a majority-minority County, with Latinos making up the majority of the population. Harris County in 2020 was 12 points less White, four points more Latino, seven points more Black, and 2 points more Asian than Texas. Almost 70% of the population is non-White.

Graph from Adam Carlson.

This matters because, looking at the exit poll data from 2022 and 2020, we have a good idea of how these voting blocks vote.

2022 CNN Exit Poll From Texas

2020 CNN Exit Poll From Texas

Building on the demographic data, we can see the big picture of voter turnout in November. The demographic shifts happening in Harris County speak volumes, pointing to a highly diverse electorate. It isn’t only about numbers; it’s about the signs of changing political tides.

A comparison of voters and turnout in Harris County between now and 2020.

This is where the math starts to get interesting. In 2020, there were 2.4 million registered voters, and as of March this year, there are 2.6 million registered voters in Harris County.

In 2020, Harris County saw a 66.15% voter turnout, with 55% going to the Democrats, for 918,193 Democratic votes coming from Harris County.

Now, let’s say those numbers don’t change in 2024. With 2.6 million registered voters, we see a 66.15% voter turnout, with 55% going to the Democrats. Then that’s just under 970,000 votes. However, the Harris County Democratic Party has made 1.1 million Democratic voters their goal for this election cycle.

An important point to remember about the total presidential votes in 2020 in Texas:

• Trump - 5.8 million votes

• Biden - 5.2 million votes

In 2020, Republicans only beat us in the statewide vote by 600,000 voters. The needle has moved left in every presidential election for over a decade. In the last election, we only came within 5 points of flipping the electoral college in Texas.

Suppose the Harris County Democratic Party, plus the multiple grassroots organizations on the ground there, bust their butts between now and November. Could they get the registered voters to 2.7 million or even 2.8?

What if the Harris County Democratic Party and the other political groups in Texas all have aggressive get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaigns and can produce a voter turnout of closer to 70%?

Then there’s the Trump issue. What if 25% of the Republicans in Harris County decide they aren’t voting for Trump? 12% stay home, and 13% cast their ballots for Democrats?

Do you see? While the Harris County Democratic Party has stated it aims for a 1.1 million Democratic turnout in November, several factors could cause it to exceed that. Of course, 1.1 million would still be amazing.

How important is Harris County in the 2024 election? Pivotal.

What will Colin Allred, or even Joe Biden, take to win in Texas? I want to share something I’ve noticed in voter turnout data in presidential elections over the last 20 years.

We all know that Democrats votes went like this:

Secretary of the State

• 2004 = Republicans won Texas by 43 points.

• 2008 = Republicans won Texas by 12 points.

• 2012 = Republicans won by Texas 16 points (outlier).

• 2016 = Republicans won by Texas 9 points.

• 2020 = Republicans won by Texas 5 points.

Another data point I want to point out:

• 2004 Republican voters: 4.5 million

• 2020 Republican voters: 5.8 million

They only gained 1.3 million new voters in 20 years.

• 2004 Democratic voters: 2.8 million

• 2020 Democratic voters: 5.2 million

We gained 2.4 million new voters in 20 years.

Our base is growing faster (nearly double) and closing the margins faster. Regardless, If Democrats need 6.5 million voters to give Biden and Allred a win in November, one-sixth of that comes from Harris County.

Are there any flippable seats in Harris County for this go-around?

Here are each of the Texas House seats, with their demographic breakdown and what +/- Trump they are based on the 2020 election:

HD133 would be prime for flipping. Unfortunately, there isn’t a Democrat candidate for that seat this year. HD138 is an excellent flip target; Stephanie Morales is the Democratic candidate running for that seat.

Here are the other Harris County seats held by Republicans that have a Democrat running to replace them:

HD126:

• Sam Harless* (R)

• Sarah Smith (D)

HD127:

• Charles Cunningham* (R)

• John Lehr (D)

HD128:

• Briscoe Cain* (R)

• Chuck Crews (D)

HD129:

• Dennis Paul* (R)

• Doug Peterson (D)

HD130:

• Tom Oliverson* (R)

• Brett Robinson (D)

HD132:

• Mike Schofield* (R)

• Chase West (D)

HD150:

• Valoree Swanson* (R)

• Marisela "MJ" Jimenez (D)

This is not to say these seats can’t win, they have more of an uphill battle because of how they were gerrymandered. But this year is so unprecedented, with the GOP Civil War and Trump’s looming prison sentence, that anything could happen. What if Harris County achieves a 70% turnout while 10% of Trump voters stay home?

Who knows what will happen?

Then there are the Texas Senate seats:

SD07

• Paul Bettencourt* (R)

• Michelle Gwinn (D)

SD17

• Joan Huffman* (R)

• Kathy Cheng (D)

While the legislature drew the maps to keep these Senators safe, we live in unprecedented times again. Regardless, winning any of these races will take much work and money. But it’s not impossible.

Harris County's role is pivotal in the grand strategy to turn Texas blue, but victory is not won by chance.

It results from meticulous planning, unyielding effort, and, most importantly, the people's collective will to triumph in this monumental endeavor; it will take every single one of us to act with purpose and unity.

Right now, at this very moment, the time is ripe for involvement. Every door knocked, every call made, every flyer distributed contributes to the swell of change. It's about harnessing the power of personal stories and shared struggles to rally our neighbors, friends, and communities.

Here is the Harris County Democratic Party website. You can sign up to volunteer, become a precinct chair, or donate.

🎴 Do You Want To Help Save Texas? Please Become A Precinct Chair.

Grassroots movements thrive on the spirit of collective action—each volunteer, each activist, and each concerned citizen amplifies our cause. Donating time, skills, or funds, engaging in community discussions, staying informed, and spreading the message are the tools at our disposal.

The battle for the future belongs to the candidates and everyone who yearns for a more inclusive, progressive, and just society. Whether it's by volunteering for campaign events, educating undecided voters, or simply being a vocal advocate for change, everyone has a part to play.

As we look to the horizon, let's commit to mobilizing like never before. Let's create a surge of participation that washes over every polling place in Harris County. Together, we stand on the cusp of history, ready to flip the script in Texas politics. But it will take all of us—united and driven—to seize this moment. The time to get involved is now.

Important 2024 primary RUNOFF election days:

• April 29, 2024: Last day to register to vote.

• May 17, 2024: Last day to apply by mail

• May 20, 2024: First day of early voting.

• May 24, 2024: Last day of early voting.

• May 28, 2024: Last day to receive a ballot by mail.

• May 28, 2024: Election day.

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