How Important Is Fort Bend County In The 2024 Election?

Why Fort Bend County Matters More Than Ever

Aug 16, 2024

In 2020, Democrats secured 5.2 million votes in Texas. How many do we need to flip Texas blue? Some say six million. Others say seven million. In this series, we’re discussing each of the major counties in Texas, their voter turnout and partisan lean in previous elections, what we might expect in this November election, and discover our pathway to winning.

Once we cover all of the major counties, we’ll discuss the remainder of Texas in regions, but with only 81 days until the November election, we still have a lot of ground to cover.

You can find the previous installments of this series at the bottom of this article.

Fort Bend County is the most diverse county in Texas.

And one of the most diverse counties in all of America. That’s why Fort Bend County is such a fantastic place and a model for diversity. Here is the breakdown of the current population:

Fort Bend County has grown rapidly over the past few decades and is expected to continue. Like many other places in Texas, this area is experiencing a population boom. And it’s expected to double in size by 2050.

Fort Bend County is also blue despite its Republican representation due to gerrymandering. The good news for Democrats is that it will only get bluer.

Fort Bend County turned blue in 2016, and Democrats gained another 3.3% of the vote, above that in 2020. Over the last few decades, Democrats have made between 3% and 5% gains each presidential cycle (except for 2012—the year we don’t speak of).

Based on this trend, it would be fair to expect Democrats in Fort Bend County to win by at least 58% in November. With all the excitement we’re seeing in Texas this year and the activity happening in Harris County, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Fort Bend County saw another record voter turnout. (Fort Bend County is part of the Greater Houston Area.)

Fort Bend County already had above-state-average voter turnout, but in 2020, its turnout was in the top three. It currently has 529,558 registered voters, nearly 50,000 more than it had in 2020. If it achieves the same voter turnout as last presidential election cycle, we could expect to see as many as 392,000 total voters (for all sides) in November.

If the Fort Bend County Democratic Party can achieve that 58% vote share, we could see as many as 227,000 Democratic voters from this county alone. However, it’s all about turnout. By this point, we should see the Fort Bend County Democratic Party’s foot on the gas to GOTV in only 81 days.

There’s no reason why we shouldn’t have all the faith in the world in them. 😁

Which lawmakers are on the ballot?

Congress.

Three gerrymandered congressional districts seep into Fort Bend County. Luckily, two of them are held by Democrats, TX07 held by Lizzie Fletcher (D) and TX09 held by Al Green (D).

The third district, TX22, is held by Wisconsinite Troy Nehls (R). Nehls has been a thorn in Fort Bend County’s side for a long time. Before running for Congress, he was the Fort Bend County Sheriff, where he once made national news for arresting the driver of a truck with a “Fuck Trump” decal.

So, naturally, the driver added a second decal on her truck:

Of course, it was her First Amendment right to do so.

Also, Texas Democrats are like:

Marquette Greene-Scott is the Democrat running against Nehls. You can learn more about her on her website, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube.

Texas Senate.

There are also three gerrymandered state Senate seats in Fort Bend County. Two of them, SD18, held by Lois Kolkhorst (R), and SD13, held by Borris Miles (D), are not up for election this year. But when Kolkhorst is up in 2026, expect to hear a lot from me on that future race.

Joan Huffman in SD17 is up for election this year. She is the Chair of the Senate Finance Committee and has blocked bills that would have put air conditioning in Texas prisons over the last two legislative sessions. This human rights catastrophe in Texas has cost dozens of lives in recent years. Huffman was also responsible for the 2021 redistricting maps.

SD17 is only a +17 Republican district. With a hard-fought campaign and enough money, this seat can be flipped. However, SD17 encompasses many other counties, which would all have their part to play.

Kathy Cheng is the Democrat running against Huffman. You can learn more about her on her website, Facebook, and Instagram.

Texas House.

Fort Bend County is home to five mish-mash House districts. Two are Democratic, and three are Republican. The two Democrats, Ron Reynolds (HD27) and Suleman Lalani (HD76), are in safe blue districts. (Very few areas in Texas are trending red, so most House Democrats are safe.)

Jacey Jetton (R) in HD26 was voted out in his primary, and the Republican running for this seat is Matt Morgan, a far-right candidate with ties to Tim Dunn and his flunkeys. Republicans only have a +11 advantage in this district, which makes it a harder race, but not a long shot. Considering Morgan’s far-right positions, like pro-voucher, bans on IVF, and the “Contract On Texas,” Democrats will have a leg up in this race.

Daniel Lee is the Democrat running for HD26. You can learn more about him on his website, Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Gary Gates is the Republican incumbent for HD28. Gates has been long known as a slumlord millionaire who uses the Legislature to enrich himself further. His policies usually involve deregulating housing and construction. Gates is also pro-voucher.

This district has a +12 Republican advantage.

Marty Rocha is the Democrat running against Gates.

The last Republican-held House district is HD85, held by Stan Kitzman. Unfortunately, Kitzman is running unopposed this year. HD85 is a +33 Republican district due to gerrymandering.

Fort Bend County is a prime example of how demographic shifts and strong voter engagement can lead to significant political change.

With its growing population, increasing diversity, and a solid trend toward Democratic gains, this county is a battleground that Democrats cannot ignore.

The groundwork laid here could help flip key seats and contribute to the broader effort to turn Texas blue. With strong candidates and an energized base, Fort Bend County is poised to play a critical role in shaping the future of Texas politics.

Vote early, vote often, just vote.

Leading up to the November election, we’re discussing the data in some of the most important counties in the upcoming elections. If you missed the previous installments:

August 19: Last day for write-in candidates to declare their candidacy.
October 7: Last day to register to vote.
October 21: First day to early vote.
October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!