How Important Is El Paso County In The 2024 Election?
What 2024 could mean for this key border county.
Note: In this series, we’ve been exploring the election data from the most populous counties and other areas in Texas. I’ve been going in order from most populated on down. When we got to the 9th most populated county, Hidalgo, we discussed the entire South Texas region because it also included Cameron County, and we wanted to see what the data said about the RGV moving right.
El Paso County is the 10th most populated county in Texas, so I wanted to cover it separately from the West Texas region (which I’ll publish in the coming weeks). I’ll probably only analyze a few other counties after this one. Then we’ll talk about the rest of Texas in regions. (51 days left until the election, tick tock, tick tock.)
El Paso County.
In 2020, El Paso County accounted for 3.39% of Democrats in the State of Texas. This may seem small, but you must remember how big the Lone Star State is. To put it into perspective, there are 238 counties where less than 1% of Texas’ total Democrats live.
The Secretary of State’s online records only go back to 1992. El Paso County has voted blue in every election. So, it’s been long blue. It was blue before Travis, Harris, Bexar, and Dallas. Since 2000, they’ve moved roughly ten points left.
In 2020, El Paso County moved slightly to the right, but it’s nothing to be concerned about. They appear to move slightly right every few elections but recover widely in the following election.
Like too many other places in Texas, El Paso County has long struggled with voter turnout. However, they finally broke a 50% voter turnout in the 2020 election.
According to the El Paso County Elections Department, the county has gained roughly 30,000 new voters since the 2020 election. The current population here is over 868,000 and still growing.
El Paso County is 83% Hispanic. This matters because we generally know how voters lean based on demographics.
What can we expect to see in El Paso County in November?
The El Paso County Democratic Party has done a fantastic job increasing voter turnout in each presidential election.
Except for the 2012 election (which we don’t speak of because it was a cursed election 👻), voter turnout has steadily increased in each race.
In fact, if we just take 2012 out, it’s almost a straight line upward. 😉
It’s reasonable to presume that the voter turnout in this county will increase again in November. But to how much?
They saw a 54.6% turnout in 2020. While a 60% turnout would be fantastic, 57% is a reasonable expectation. The big question I don’t know the answer to is how much of the immigration rhetoric from the presidential debate and how much of Greg Abbott’s antics will impact voter turnout in this border county.
A lot has changed since the 2020 election, and border communities, including El Paso, have faced the brunt of Republicans’ political theater. How will voters respond to it? We’ll have to wait and see.
Who is on the ticket in El Paso County?
El Paso County is a blue stronghold. While Republicans in this area are clawing at making gains, they have been largely unsuccessful. Many of the Democrats running are unopposed, and many more are in safe blue seats. But let’s get into it.
Congress.
TX16 - This is Congresswoman Veronica Escobar’s seat. It’s +35 points blue. The Republican challenger, Irene Armendariz Jackson, was also the Republican nominee for this seat in 2022 and lost by 27 points. I can’t predict the future, but Escobar should win again.
TX23 - This district stretches from El Paso County to Bexar County along the border. Republican incumbent Tony Gonzalez has had his share of problems. This district includes Uvalde and Gonzalez, who have upset some of the parents from the Robb Elementry Massacre, even blocking one of them on Twitter. This has made him somewhat of a villain to TX23 Democratic voters.
On the other hand, Gonzalez had a tough primary with Brandon Herrerra, the “AK Guy.” While Gonzalez ultimately won that primary in a runoff, during that time, he also called his Republican peers “scumbags and klansmen.” This has made him somewhat of a villain to TX23 far-right Republicans.
When Republicans redrew this district in 2021, they only gave themselves a +7-point advantage. TX23 covers 29 counties; most voters are in Bexar County, but El Paso County accounts for 11% of this district. If Bexar County and El Paso County increase their Democratic voter turnout this year, it may flip. Turnour will be everything.
Santos Limon is a Democrat running for this seat. You can learn more about him on his website, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube.
Texas Senate.
SD29 - Senator Cesar Blanco (D) is running unopposed and will return to the Texas Legislature in January.
Texas House.
HD74 - This is Representative Eddie Morales’ (D) seat. When Republicans drew this district, which includes 11 counties, they gave themselves a +4.8 advantage. However, in 2022 (after redistricting), Morales beat his Republican opponent by 11 points. This is substantial because Democrats largely stayed home in 2022. With this year being presidential, we shouldn’t be surprised if Morales wins again.
HD75 - Representative Mary Gonzalez (D) is running unopposed and will return to the Texas Legislature in January.
HD77 - Representative Lina Ortega (D) is retiring at the end of her term. Former El Paso County Commissioner Vince Perez won the Democratic primary and is running unopposed in November. So, he will be going to the Texas House in January.
HD78 - Representative Joe Moody (D) is running unopposed and will return to the Texas Legislature in January.
HD79 - Representative Claudia Ordaz (D) is running unopposed and will return to the Texas Legislature in January.
The future of Texas politics is far from set in stone.
While El Paso County remains a Democratic stronghold, its voter turnout has historically lagged behind other major urban centers. As we move toward November, the significance of increased engagement cannot be overstated. El Paso, much like the rest of Texas, is at the crossroads of major political and demographic shifts, and the border county’s response to ongoing Republican rhetoric will be a telling sign of how much influence these tactics hold in shaping voter behavior.
The county’s unopposed Democratic candidates are a testament to its deep blue roots. With immigration and the border wall remaining focal points of the national debate, it is clear that voter sentiment in places like El Paso will serve as a bellwether for how Texans at large respond to an ever-increasingly polarized political landscape.
Vote early, vote often, just vote.
Leading up to the November election, we’re discussing the data in some of the most important counties in the upcoming elections. If you missed the previous installments:
October 7: Last day to register to vote.
October 21: First day to early vote.
October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!
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