How Important Is Bexar County In The 2024 Election?
Bexar County is a key player in shifting the balance of power in the Lone Star State.
This year, Bexar County is possibly ground zero for the 2024 Democratic fight in Texas. With three targeted House seats and a widely hated Congressman, the San Antonio area is poised to impact the Texas Democratic races.
Over two million people call Bexar County home, and like so many other large urban counties, it has become a reliable Democratic stronghold, only moving bluer with every election. Bexar County is the fourth most populous county in Texas and the 16th most populous county in the US.
Bexar County accounts for 6.8% of the total vote share in Texas.
Over the last two decades, Bexar County has moved 26 points to the left. In the 2024 election, we should expect this county to move another 4 to 5 points left. (Unless Democrats somehow drop the ball and screw up—please don’t do that.)
Winning Bexar County this year by +20 points would go a long way to flipping Texas blue.
The margins for Bexar over the last few decades (source: Secretary of State):
2000: -7.6(R)
2004: -10.5(R)
2008: +5.6(D)
2012: +4.6(D)
2016: +14.1(D)
2020: +18.4(D)
Like many other parts of Texas, Bexar County has struggled with voter turnout, which significantly improved in 2020. However, this county’s turnout still lags behind that of Texas as a whole.
The Bexar County Democratic Party and grassroots organizations should make a big push for turnout this year. A 65%+ turnout would be an accomplishment.
According to the Secretary of State, currently, Bexar County has:
170 Democratic Precinct Chairs
180 Republican Precinct Chairs
Because this year is vital for Bexar County, we should hope to see some heavy-duty precinct chairs recruiting from the Bexar County Democratic Party.
Bexar County is a majority-minority county with a 59% Hispanic population.
There are currently 1,244,216 registered voters in Bexar, which should increase by November. If (hypothetical) this county saw a 65% voter turnout with a 20-point Democratic lead, we could see as many as 485,000 Democratic votes coming from Bexar County this year.
Why is voter turnout so important in Bexar County this year?
There are precisely FIVE reasons why Bexar County needs to see the biggest turnout in history.
One - Congressman Chip Roy.
Every Democrat in Texas can’t stand crybaby Chip Roy, who only even has a seat in Congress due to racial gerrymandering. Although Chip Roy lives in Travis County, he represents Bexar County (by population) more than any other area.
Because Chip Roy is an absolute deplorable and Trump sycophant, he remains a top target for Texas Democrats. A large Democratic turnout in Bexar County may be the catalyst we need to send him back to Maryland finally.
Running against Chip Roy is Dr. Kristin Hook. Here is her website.
Two - Senator Donna Campbell.
It’s surprising that Dr. Donna Campbell still has her medical license. She took an oath to “do no harm” yet harms the people of Texas repeatedly through legislation.
Like Chip Roy’s district, most of Campbell’s district is in Bexar County, even though she calls New Braunfels home.
Campbell’s Democratic Challenger is Dr. Merrie Fox. Here is her website.
Three - Representative John Lujan.
House District 118 is a blue district. Lujan got lucky twice. The first time was a special election, and only 9% of the electorate showed up to vote. The second time was in 2022 when Democrats decided to stay home.
The third time is a charm. This year, Democrat Kristen Carranza is poised to take him out. Carranza, a community organizer, may be the hardest-working candidate in Texas. My social media is full of posts of her block walking, at event activities, and in press conferences with Colin Allred. She’ll make a great lawmaker.
See my analyses of the HD118 race: Kristian Carranza For House District 118
You can learn more about Kristen Carranza from her website.
Four - Marc Lahood.
Marc Lahood used to be a Democratic voter, but then he discovered there was a lot of money in Republican politics in Texas. Governor Greg Abbott gave Lahood $700,000 to take a pro-voucher position and oust Moderate Republican Steve Allison, one of the few GOP members who still believed in bipartisanship.
Aside from being a target for Democrats this year, Lahood is also a target from pro-public education groups. This district (HD121) only gave Republicans a slight edge in redistricting, an edge I don’t expect them to hold on to this year.
Running against Lahood is Laurel Swift. Here is her website.
Five - Representative Mark Dorazio.
Representative Dorazio is one of the furthest right Republicans in the Texas House, but he goes under the radar because he isn’t as loud as his far-right peers. However, his voting record tells us that he aligns with whatever is to the right of Conservatives.
After the 2021 redistricting cycle, Republicans gave this district (HD122) an 8-point advantage. Many political observers expect Democrats to overperform this year, but will they overperform enough to flip it?
Some seem to think so.
Organizers and activists are sharing their targets this year, and this seat has been added along with HD118 and HD121 for heavy campaigning. If Bexar County voters are informed and educated on how important their vote is this year and have a huge turnout, we could see as many as three State House seats flip in Bexar County this year.
Kevin Geary is the Democrat running against Dorazio. Here is his website.
Does the Bexar County Democratic Party have what it takes?
It’s possible. This county party is active and hasn’t been in the rumor mill for any reason. However, they need to pick up their precinct chair game. Hopefully, they have a committee working on that this summer.
Luckily for them, plenty of other grassroots organizations will be working for GOTV this year.
This is the year to get involved! If you live in Bexar County, consider volunteering for the county party or other groups. Here are their websites:
Bexar County activists have a monumental task this election season: engage the community for a record turnout.
Achieving a record turnout in Bexar County is crucial to flipping seats held by some of the worst Republicans.
Aside from Kristen Carranza’s activity on my social media feeds, I’m also seeing many events in Bexar County that give me a lot of hope for them in November.
From now until November 5, Bexar County Democrats and every Bexar County resident who cares about democracy need to be all-hands-on-deck.
What we should expect to see from the San Antonio area is community outreach, voter registration drives, canvassing, phone banking, and voter education campaigns. They absolutely can get it done.
Every vote counts.
The future of Bexar County, and potentially Texas, hinges on the engagement and participation of its residents. By working together, we can ensure a record turnout and significantly impact the political landscape.
This is the year to stand up, get involved, and make a difference.
Sign up to volunteer with your local candidate.
Phone bank for your local Democratic party.
Even if Biden beats Trump, Democrats must do something about the Texas Legislature. Project 2025 is already in Texas because of the far-right grips on our government, and they’ve already implemented some of the most regressive laws in America—the only way to end the madness is to vote them out.
Let’s make 2024 a historic year for Bexar County and Texas as a whole. Vote early, vote often, just vote.
Leading up to the November election, we’ll discuss the data in some of the most important counties in the upcoming elections. If you missed the previous three installments:
129 days left until the November 5 election!
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