GOP Pac To Target Conservative Hispanic Democrats In The Texas House

Texas GOP Pac plans to woo Hispanics in districts held by Conservative Democrats.

Yesterday it was announced that the Associated Republicans of Texas Pac would be targeting Conservative Democrats House seats for flipping. These so-called Conservative Democrats have been in office for a long time and held on to their seats by pandering to Republicans.

According to a recent ranking from the Texas Tribune, these Democrats are among some of the least liberal in the Texas House.

The seats they’re targeting include House Districts 34, 41, 74, 80, and 144. Abel Herrero has announced his retirement so HD34 will be up for grabs.

House District 34.

This district encompasses the western part of Nueces County and includes parts of Corpus Christi. While Republicans aim to dump a large amount of cash into this election, they face an uphill battle. This district is only 22.5% Anglo, and despite what the talking heads want you to believe, the Hispanic vote is not really moving right in Texas.

In 2020, 58% of the Latino vote went to Democrats, compared to 2022, when 57% went to Democrats. That’s a 1-point change, which is hardly anything. Republicans in Texas are embracing this narrative to try and discourage people from voting because they see that the Latino population in Florida has moved right, so they’re trying to make it true for Texas.

2020 exit poll demographics

2022 exit poll demographics

What Republicans fail to realize is that Hispanic and Latino people are not a monolith. In Florida, much of the Hispanic population is of Cuban and Puerto Rican descent, while in Texas, the Hispanic population comes from Mexico and the Golden Triangle. As such, their needs and motivations for voting will be much different.

So, HD34 is not looking like it could be a Republican flip, although the Republicans will undoubtedly paint it that way. Another idea the GOP has by targeting the seats of these Conservative, or perhaps moderate, Democrats is that because they pander to the GOP, they are easy flips.

While many of us (those who follow me) eat and breathe politics, you have to remember that 90% of voters don’t actually pay attention to the day-to-day of what their representatives do in the Texas House or how they cast their votes. A large swath of those voters will vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election, whether they are progressive or Conservative.

During the 2022 election, a Republican challenged Abel Herrero and lost by 15 points in an election when Nueces County only saw a 41% voter turnout.

Corpus Christi City Council member Roland Barrera (D) has already announced he will run for this seat. It’s reported that former Democratic State Representative Solomon Ortiz JR is also heavily considering running. No Republicans have yet to announce.

House District 41.

Much like 34, House District 41 is a majority Hispanic district with only 11% of the population being Anglo. HD41 encompasses much of McAllen in Hidalgo County, which is reliably blue.

The GOP truly believes that they will get working-class Hispanics to vote against their own best interests, and we can expect to see a lot of money poured into Spanish-speaking advertisements filled with lies and propaganda.

The voter turnout last year in Hidalgo County was 33%, one of the lowest turnouts in Texas. However, the incumbent Bobby Guerra still beat his Republican opponent (whose name was also Bobby Guerra) by 13 points.

Perhaps the GOP believes that the low voter turnout indicates a swing right, but has anyone stopped to think that maybe people in the RGV aren’t voting in numbers because they recognize their representatives also vote with Republicans much of the time?

Jessica Cisneros, although she lost her bid, proved that there is a desire in South Texas to see more progressive candidates. And while I suspect Bobby Guerro should have no problems in the 2024 election holding on to his seat, I’m also left to wonder if a progressive candidate was to challenge him and win, could this push the RGV further left? Food for thought.

House District 74.

Eddie Morales has been in office for two sessions, although he has often been a thorn in the side of Texas progressives. HD74 encompasses a tiny part of El Paso and ten other rural counties, which are mostly on the border. All of these counties saw dismal turnout in 2022, but Morales beat a GOP challenger by 11%.

With only 16% Anglo in this district, it’s another Hispanic-majority area that Republicans plan to target. I think they realize that they can’t hold on to Texas without winning the Hispanic votes, but they also know the low turnout numbers work in their favor.

Whether the Hispanic vote moves a point here or there, in either direction, the narrative that Hispanics are moving right hasn’t held true in Texas based on the data. The GOP wants to take incidents like Mayra Flores’ win during a special election in 2022 as proof that Hispanics are becoming more Conservative. However, in Mayra Flores’ election, she lost the Hispanic vote, and the voter turnout was only 7%. It’s all anecdotal evidence.

I predict that Eddie Morales will hold on to this seat.

House District 80.

This is the only seat on their target list that Republicans might have a good shot of winning. Long-time incumbent Tracy King just announced his retirement this morning. The turnout in this district in 2022 was right around 40%. This district also includes Uvalde.

In 2022, Abbott won this district by two points, even though the district is 82% non-Anglo. It’s hard to say, well, this is one district that is actually moving red, despite the Hispanic majority, because the voter turnout has been historically low.

This will be an interesting race to watch, and I think that a GOP candidate could win this seat based on the current turnout. A young and progressive Democrat could also drum up enough excitement to win and increase the turnout. However, as of right now, no one has announced their candidacy for this district.

House District 144.

It’s interesting that the GOP Pac would choose HD144 to throw into their mix, as all of the other districts they chose were border districts. House District 144 is in Harris County. This Hispanic-majority Harris County seat saw a sharp rightward shift from D-59% to D-55% in 2022, which is likely the reason they picked it.

However, comparing what we saw in Texas in 2022 to 2020 or even 2024 is tricky. Last year the voter turnout for Democrats was embarrassingly low. During presidential election years (like 20 and 24), it’ll be much higher. Plus, with all of the drama going on at the national level, it’s hard to determine how that will impact voter turnout in 2024.

If Democrats in Texas don’t get their act together by the next election, Mary Ann Perez still might hold on to this seat, but she would be at risk of losing this seat in 2026. For now, I don’t foresee this seat flipping red, but Harris County Democrats really need to step their game up.

Republicans are still losing ground in Texas.

In 2011, Republicans had a 101-49 majority. Since then, they have gerrymandered our state to death, not once, but twice. Now, they have an 85-64 majority. That means despite all of their gerrymandering and voter suppression efforts. They have steadily been losing ground over the last decade.

We can hold out hope that we can flip enough seats in the House to take control in the 2024 election, but we can rest assured that by 2030 we will have a Democrat majority in the Texas legislature.

Texas is a battleground state, and it has been for many years. The only way the GOP has managed to maintain its death grip for so long is through the mountains of cash they pour into the elections and through making sure that white people have as much voting power as possible. But their days are numbered.

Election season is kicking off in Texas. Buckle your seatbelts. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.