Ellis County's Future is Blue: Democrats Must Build Infrastructure Now

Ellis County Democrats can transform a red stronghold into a blue beacon over the next decade, the time for building their future is now.

Jul 09, 2024

Urban sprawl is reshaping Ellis County at an unprecedented pace. The landscape is transforming rapidly as the county’s population grows, driven by people moving from densely populated urban centers in Dallas and Tarrant County. New developments are popping up, stretching the county’s resources and infrastructure. This expansion presents opportunities for Democrats who aim to turn Ellis County blue.

Now is the time to invest in building robust Democratic infrastructure that can support this growth and help Ellis County turn blue when it’s time.

Republicans in Ellis County should no longer be going unopposed.

Possibly the most useless Republican in the Texas House, Brian Harrison, is running for House District 10 this year unopposed. While he’s spamming Twitter about removing political power from people of color in Texas, ending the Department of Education, and making up lies about the border, there isn’t a Democrat to challenge him or even distract him from focusing on anything but his district.

Harrison is part of a group of fascists within the Texas House. They call themselves the “Fearsome Four,” but a more fitting name would probably be the “Sham Squad” or the “Pretend Patriots.”

This bluster bunch is driven by anger and hate and is hyper-focused on culture war issues that will harm Texans, specifically marginalize communities.

Allowing Brian Harrison to run unopposed does a significant disservice to the people of Texas and, more specifically, to the residents of Ellis County. The absence of a Democratic challenger gives the “Absurd Assembly” members free rein to propagate their harmful policies without scrutiny. It denies the electorate the opportunity for meaningful debate and choice. This lack of opposition perpetuates the status quo and stifles the potential for progress and change.

When candidates like Brian Harrison go unchallenged, they face no pressure to address the real issues affecting their constituents. Instead, they can continue to focus on divisive culture wars and inflammatory rhetoric that do nothing to improve the lives of ordinary Texans. This complacency allows him to neglect critical local concerns such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure, which are vital for the well-being and future of Ellis County.

Fielding Democratic candidates is crucial even in districts not expected to flip this session.

A Democratic challenger, regardless of the odds, can hold these Republicans accountable, force them to engage on substantive issues, and provide voters with an alternative vision for their community. Running candidates in every race helps to build a stronger Democratic presence in the county, laying the groundwork for future success.

Having Democrats actively contest these seats shifts the political conversation leftward. It energizes the base, encourages voter turnout, and increases political engagement among residents who might otherwise feel disenfranchised. By showing up and presenting a straightforward, progressive platform, Democrats can gradually change perceptions and move the political needle in Ellis County.

Ultimately, the goal is to win individual races and build a sustained movement to transform Ellis County into a Democratic stronghold. This starts with challenging every seat, every time, and demonstrating to the voters that there is a better, more inclusive path forward for their community. By doing so, Democrats can ensure that the future of Ellis County is not just blue but bright.

It may be too late for a Democratic candidate for 2024, but Ellis County Democrats should be forward-thinking about 2026 now and ready to recruit and train a candidate to declare next year.

Ellis County blue? Who ever heard of such a thing?

Ellis County is growing at almost 5% annually, making it the eighth fastest-growing county in America.

The current population of Ellis County is 212,000.

However, according to the Ellis County Department of Development, that number should reach:

270,000 by 2030
368,000 by 2040
506,000 by 2050

Moreover, Ellis County’s population growth is non-white. Specifically, the Black population in Ellis County has almost doubled in the last decade.

This is important because we know that the majority of Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters in Texas vote blue.

During the 2016 election, Ellis County saw a voter turnout of 62.28%, which is low for a presidential election and typically what we see in rural counties. However, the county’s population at the time was only 168,000.

In 2020, Ellis County saw a voter turnout of 71.13%, which is more reflective of a populated area. The population at the time was 191,000.

In 2016, Democrats won 25.53% of the vote.
In 2020, Democrats won 32.24% of the vote.
That’s a 6.75% swing left.

Another way that we know that Democrats are gaining ground in Ellis County is by looking at the midterms.

In 2018, Democrats won 31.53% of the vote.
In 2022, Democrats won 31.49% of the vote.

You’re thinking, “That’s not movement. That’s standing still.” However, look at the turnout for Ellis County in the midterm years:

The 2018 voter turnout in Ellis County was 55.92%.
The 2022 voter turnout in Ellis County was 51.71%.

Democratic turnout was low in the 2022 midterms. Although the turnout in 2022 was four points less than in 2018, Democrats didn’t lose ground. Knowing that many Democrats stayed home this year, we can conclude that if Democrats made it to the polls in 2022, they would have seen gains instead of standing still.

Ellis County won’t turn blue in 2024, but when will it?

We saw a 6.71% swing left in the last election. With the rapid growth rate in Ellis County, especially the non-white growth, it’s easy to assume that we will see another leftward shift in November. The question is, how much?

If Democrats in Ellis County can maintain their momentum, continue working hard for turnout, and ensure that Republicans there have Democratic opponents, they could be blue as soon as 2032.

Ellis County Democrats should be diligently working to lay the groundwork for that. That means they need precinct chairs, they need to work for the Democratic candidate on the county and city levels, and they need to keep up a flurry of activity for the foreseeable future.

I believe they can do that.

In the summer of 2022, I drove down to Waxahachie in Ellis County to a Beto O’Rourke rally. It blew my mind because it was around 105°, the rally was outside, and there were over 3,000 people there.

I’m not sure the video does the headcount justice. There were a lot of people out there that day. I was sure it was over 1,000, but then I spoke with someone in the Beto campaign because they were collecting signatures of attendees. They told me it was over 3,000.

In 2022, I attended several Beto rallies. The one in Waxahachie was by far the biggest I had participated in.

I drove down to Waxahachie to see Beto again because the Dallas Morning News took a picture of us at the Democratic Convention a few weeks earlier. I was making the silliest face in the world 😊, but I printed it up and wanted Beto to sign it. He did.

The point is that of all the Beto rallies I attended that year, the one in Waxahachie was by far the biggest, and I saw a solid Democratic base there, full of energy and wanting blue government.

There are strong Democrats and stable Democratic groups in Ellis County working hard to get out from underneath the Republican boot on their necks. That includes:

Ellis County is part of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex, even if it’s on the outskirts. While the DFW population is 8.1 million now, it’s projected to be 12.5 million by 2050. DFW is currently on track to surpass the Chicago area and become the third-largest metropolitan region behind New York and Los Angeles.

Like every other county in DFW, Ellis County will continue to see rapid growth that will bring diversity and change to the county. While 2032 seems like a long time from now, the work that Ellis County Democrats put in now will pay off well for them in the long run.

Only 24 counties in Texas are currently bigger than Ellis County. Only 10 of them are still red, but ALL are trending blue, and as many as four could flip blue this November.

Ellis County Democrats, the future is within your grasp.

You have a unique opportunity to build a stronger, more inclusive community. It’s time to get involved, be forward-thinking, and focus on the future. The groundwork you lay today will pave the way for a brighter tomorrow.

Remember, every race matters. Allowing figures like Brian Harrison to run unopposed is a disservice to the people of Ellis County. It’s crucial to challenge these seats, hold Republicans accountable, and present a progressive vision that resonates with the diverse and growing population. By running candidates in every election, no matter the odds, we can shift the political conversation and energize our base.

Ellis County Democrats, this is your call to action. Please get involved in your local party, support Democratic candidates, and ensure we never again let Brian Harrison or any other Republicans run unopposed. You have the power to transform Ellis County and secure a future that reflects our shared values of equality, justice, and progress.

The path to a blue Ellis County starts today.

119 days left until the November 5 election!

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