Day 11 Update: Texas On Track For Historic Turnout in 2024

What we can expect as Texas heads toward Election Day.

We discussed the potential turnout on Election Day in yesterday’s early voting update. In 2020, it was under 1.6 million. We’re comparing 2024 to 2020 because it’s the most recent similar election (presidential), but when you look at the big picture, 2024 is nothing like 2020. Four years ago, we were in the throws of the worst pandemic in over 100 years and had 18 days of early voting.

When comparing this year’s early voting numbers to 2020, voter turnout and mail-in votes have been lower. Yesterday, I speculated that the lower early voter turnout means we’ll have a higher in-person turnout on election day. So, I went back and looked at the numbers. Here’s what I found out:

• 2022 Election Day turnout: 2,587,961

• 2020 Election Day turnout: 1,502,909

• 2018 Election Day turnout: 2,298,894

• 2016 Election Day turnout: 2,338,906

In 2020, more people voted early because of the coronavirus, so the early voting numbers are not lower. We’re comparing this year to a year when our Election Day turnout was at its lowest. This is good news; this year, we should expect a much higher turnout on Election Day.

How high? It’s time for some more speculating.

Day 11 of early voting.

Yesterday’s numbers:

• Another 553,577 Texans cast a vote (this number is low, as the Secretary of State is not showing all counties today—including Travis County).

• The Secretary of State (SoS) is showing a total of 8,101,339 ballots cast in this election.

• Or 43.5% of registered voters.

This is because the SoS’s numbers are less than each county is reporting.

For example, Harris County is showing 1,101,623 total on the Harris County Elections website, while the SoS website shows Harris County’s total turnout of 1,098,627.

Dallas County is showing 585,904 total on the Dallas County Elections website, while the SoS website shows Dallas County’s total turnout of 580,856.

There are 254 counties, and I haven’t checked them all, but for the ones I have looked at, the total number on the SoS website is a few thousand less than what the county is reporting.

That doesn’t necessarily mean something nefarious, although we have plenty of reasons not to trust the Republicans in charge. This likely means that there have probably been issues reporting or the SoS website is lagging, and the problem should be corrected when counting happens on Election Night.

Don’t worry. Many people are watching these numbers and will raise alarm bells if the SoS does something wrong. Until then, I’m going on the SoS’s numbers, knowing they are behind.

Between the numbers that still have to catch up and the last day of early voting, I’m hoping we break the 9 million threshold of early voters. We’ll know tomorrow, but I would give the SoS until Monday to catch up. Tomorrow will be the last early voting update I’ll provide for this election cycle.

For consistency, what have been the total early voting numbers in recent years (mail-in + in-person):

• 2022 total early voting: 5,491,053

• 2020 total early voting: 9,789,358

• 2018 total early voting: 6,087,871

• 2016 total early voting: 6,686,330

As you can see, we’re on track to beat every other year’s early voting numbers except for 2020, when we had COVID-19 and 18 days of early voting.

What kind of turnout should we expect on election day? Over 2 million, but looking at the data, I’m more inclined to think around 3 million (or more). That would give us about 12 million votes if that’s the case.

For comparison, the total votes in 2020 were 11,308,125, and that was Texas’ highest turnout year ever. I have a lot of faith that we can break those numbers this year. Will it give us enough to flip the state? It remains to be seen.

Have Republicans hit their ceiling in Texas?

Another data set I want to bring your attention to, one I think about a lot, is the Republican voter turnout over the last decade.

• 2008 total Republican turnout: 4,479,328

• 2010 total Republican turnout: 2,737,481

• 2012 total Republican turnout: 4,567,843

• 2014 total Republican turnout: 2,861,531

• 2016 total Republican turnout: 4,685,047

• 2018 total Republican turnout: 4,260,553

• 2020 total Republican turnout: 5,890,347

• 2022 total Republican turnout: 4,437,099

Since 2008, the Republicans have only broken over 5 million votes once, in 2020. Their total turnout seems to hover in the 4 million range the rest of the time.

I could be wrong about this, so don’t take my word as a prediction or fact, but I don’t believe the Republicans will reach the same total turnout as they did in 2020.

Here’s why:

1. In 2020, Trump’s mobilization effort in Texas was ten times what it has been this year. The orange one has only held two or three rallies in Texas this year; at least one was a private event.

2. The pandemic significantly impacted Texans. Many Republicans viewed the Democrats’ pandemic policies, such as lockdowns and business closures, as threats to their livelihoods. This translated into a surge of Republican voters.

3. The nationwide protests and calls for racial justice in 2020 also energized Republicans who felt that traditional American values and the principle of “law and order” were under threat. This likely also increased Republican turnout.

We’ll find out next week, but let me ask you this question:

• If you live in an urban or suburban area and look around at your neighbors, co-workers, friends, and family, does it seem like you live in a red state?

It doesn’t to me. I live in DFW with 8.5 million other people. I don’t see Trump signs and people driving around in caravans with Trump flags. I see people of all backgrounds just living like the rest of us. We’ve known for a long time that Texas wasn’t a red state but a non-voting state.

While it doesn’t look like this year, we’ll become the highest turnout state in the nation, a lot of dedicated and hardworking people have been busting their butts to change the voting culture in Texas, and it looks like this year we’ll improve. Rome wasn’t built overnight, and the idea is to strengthen our turnout in every election.

Where are the counties we’ve been watching?

Tarrant County is still beating Dallas County in turnout. This is amazing because I’ve been getting reports of Republican shenanigans in Tarrant County.

• WFAA reports that a Tarrant County Election Judge and GOP Precinct Chair lives in Ellis County.

• I received a report that students at UT Arlington were being turned away from the polls for invalid reasons. (I will discuss this further soon; the proper channels have been notified.)

• Several Tarrant County Republican members have been vocal about their Chair, Bo French’s recent behavior. Some are even asking him to step down.

Tarrant will be blue again this year, and a few Texas House seats may flip along with it.

Blue Bexar County is only 200,000 votes away from where they were in 2020, with one early voting day and Election Day left.

The level of activity I’ve seen in Bexar County this year is impressive and should be modeled across the state in future elections. From the State House to Congress, every Democratic Representative and Candidate in San Antonio has been working hard. They have been door-knocking, rallying, phone banking, and last week, they even had a telethon.

Congressman Joaquin Castro at his telethon.

A fucking telethon. I thought it was an ingenious idea. Of course, you can tell my age, getting excited over a telethon. But really, it’s the first telethon I’ve seen since Kanye West said, “George Bush doesn’t care about Black people,” in the 2005 Hurricane Katrina celebrity telethon.

Take note, Democrats around the state. Telethons are returning, and you have a new tool in your tool belt.

Red Collin County has finally jumped ahead of red Denton County in turnout. But not far ahead. I’m still betting on a Collin County flip, but I’m not counting Denton County out. If Denton sees a 75%+ turnout by the time the polls close on Election Night, they’ll flip or be within a few points.

Understanding these two DFW counties’ rapid population boom will significantly impact their election results. The population is more diverse than in previous elections.

Fort Bend County is the most diverse county in America. It’s shameful what the Republicans have done here in terms of gerrymandering.

Aside from 2020, every other year, we see a 25% + turnout on Election Day, which is our total turnout (in 2022, it was 32%). Based on the math, which I totally didn’t use an app to do 😉, I expect Fort Bend County’s turnout to be higher than in 2020, which is excellent. Fort Bend County is blue and only getting bluer.

The border counties we’ve been watching, El Paso, Hidalgo, and Cameron, have been catching up. Of course, this isn’t all border counties; it’s the biggest. Each has broken the 30% threshold.

These counties already have a typical low voter turnout. I’ve been talking to a few people in South Texas about this, trying to understand it and figure out what needs to be done to solve it. After the election is over, we’ll have time to discuss it more.

From James Bedwell:

He predicts these particular counties will stay blue this election, and I agree. However, some of the other, smaller border counties may flip. We should be prepared for that, and we’ll tackle it when it comes. (El Paso County will stay blue, too, and is in no danger of Republicans making significant gains there.)

There’s a good chance that the Election Day vote ends up younger, less white, and more urban than the early vote.

Texas is a majority-minority state with many young people, and most of its population resides in urban areas. We may or may not see something magical on Tuesday. We’ll have to wait and see.

Williamson County went blue in 2020 with a 76.87% voter turnout. We should expect them to go blue again this year, with the same voter turnout and a possible Texas House seat flip (HD52).

In 2020, Democrats accounted for 40% of the turnout in Brazoria County, with a +5 point swing left from 2016. Brazoria County has been moving left in every election over the last decade. I think a +10 point swing is too much for this year, but Brazoria County Democrats keep telling me not to count them short. They had a 69.11% total turnout in 2020. Their wishes may come true if they can beat a 75% turnout this year.

Bell County, which is currently red, has been another place that for years was in reach of Democrats flipping. All they needed to do was increase their turnout by a few points.

And here are the big, red counties we’ve been watching.

Someone asked me, “Why does voter turnout seem up in rural areas?”

Unlike in 2020, Trump has told his base to vote early this year. What if they listened and voted early, and we don’t see them voting in high numbers on Election Day?

What if this year, which is already a strange year, we see urban voters surge to the polls on Election Day?

We don’t know what’ll happen, but if you know someone who hasn’t voted yet now is the time to bug them and make sure they vote.

In just a few days, we’ll see the results of all this energy, effort, and speculation come to fruition.

Thanks to dedicated organizers and activists working tirelessly to change the state’s voting culture, Texas has been on a path toward higher voter engagement. Every election brings us closer to a Texas that reflects its diverse, evolving population. This year’s turnout numbers—whether on par with 2020 or surpassing it—will be a testament to how Texans are stepping up and making their voices heard.

We’re already seeing signs of change in counties that were once reliably red and in historically underrepresented communities that are turning out in greater numbers. If trends hold, Election Day could bring a surge of young, urban, and diverse voters, potentially shifting the landscape further. So, as we await the final counts, let’s stay hopeful and focused, knowing that every vote moves us closer to a Texas that represents all of us. Check-in on your friends, family, and neighbors—let’s all do our part to make history.

• November 1: Last day to early vote.

• November 5: Election day!

LoneStarLeft’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Follow me on Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, Threads, YouTube, and Instagram.