David Carstens For House District 66

The Blue Battle 2024: Inside the Democratic races.

May 11, 2024

A few months ago, I wrote “Which Texas House Seats Should Democrats Focus On This Year And Beyond, which broke down 18 various Texas House seats and their likelihood to flip this year. House District 66 (HD66) is one district I pointed to as a flip by 2028, but I was on the fence about it happening sooner.

After that article, I was contacted by several Democratic candidates who wanted to talk to me about the races in this article and provide data to show why they thought their district could flip this year. David Carstens was one of them. After reviewing the data, I agree that Carstens has a good chance of flipping HD66 this year, although I still believe it’ll take a lot of hard work. We may see the stars align perfectly for Collin County this year. Let’s talk about it.

Who is David Carstens?

David Carstens is a native of Plano, Collin County, deeply connected to Texas’s cultural and social fabric. He is a writer, a filmmaker, and a member of GenZ. He is firmly committed to community and inclusivity.

His campaign is driven by a vision to bridge divides and foster a collaborative, forward-thinking environment in the Texas State House. As the election approaches, Carstens’ unique blend of creative prowess and dedication to his Texan roots could make him a pivotal figure in transforming the political dynamics of House District 66.

My conversation with Carstens lasted almost an hour. I asked him about various policies and discussed data and strategy in depth. After our discussion, I felt terrific about David Carstens as a candidate and as someone who can flip HD66.

Who is he running against?

To sum up who Matt Shaheen is, he spent the entirety of Earth Day this year spamming Twitter about how “climate change isn’t real.” Like all good Republicans, Shaheen moved to Texas from Virginia in the ’90s and has been caught in countless lies during his political career.

Shaheen is not really a nice guy. When he isn’t calling Democrats names on social media, he’s harassing the Dallas City Council over the LGBTQ community, trying to kill the film industry in Texas, or going on book burning cursades.

Shaheen is popular with the business class in his district but not so much with everyone else. He voted to impeach Ken Paxton in the House, which made him the target of Ken Paxton, who also calls Collin County home. He survived Paxton’s hand-picked primary challenger but has alienated half of the Republican base.

He was first elected in 2014, since then he joined the Texas Freedom Caucus and been involved in some of the worst legislation to come out of the Texas Legislature in the last decade. Shaheen’s biggest donars this year have been Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC and Dade Phelan.

What about Collin County and HD66?

First off, a lot of people are expecting Collin County to go blue this year. Looking at the data, I’m inclined to agree with them.

Further reading:

KERA: Collin County Democrats are singing the blues — but will voters still see red?
Local Profile (2020): How Long Will Democrats Wait for Collin County to Turn Blue?
Collin County Democratic Party: 2023 Municipal Elections – Is Collin County finally flipping?

In 2020, Donald Trump only won Collin County by four points.

Here were the previous presidential races in Collin County:

2016: +17R
2012: +22R
2008: +26R
2004: +43R
2000: +49R

To put this in context, Collin County moved 45 points to the left over the last 20 years. By following the well-established trend, it would be a reasonable expectation to see Collin County go for Joe Biden and Colin Allred and be up to a +5D at that point.

But there’s a lot more to this story. Collin County is on the verge of becoming a majority-minority county. It also has been listed as one of the top ten fastest growing counties in the country and it’s population is expected to double by 2060.

Not only is Collin County experiencing exponential growth, it’s getting bluer and more diverse by the day.

Like every other district in Texas, Republicans gerrymandered them to strip away Black and brown power and disproportionately hand it to rural white farmers. This is Collin County, HD66 is the sliver on the left.

Republicans had to draw Collin County like a jigsaw puzzle to give HD70 to Democrats and crack and pack the rest of Plano and Frisco into four other districts. HD66’s shape map is one of the most rediculous and doesn’t encompass one full city.

1% of Carrollton, 47% Celina, 5% McKinney, 79% Prosper; How is this even legal? Republicans drew Collin County maps intentionally to break up cities to keep themselves in power. However, based on Collin County’s growth, it will not sustain them until the next redistricting cycle.

HD66 was a +7.9 Trump district at the last redistricting cycle, which is why I was initially on the fence about it. However, some other things need to be considered.

The +7.9 Trump leaning is based on the 2020 Census and data. The county has grown at a rate of 3.5% - 4% per year since then. That means, in this district alone, there are up to 25,000 new voters since the maps were drawn. (math)

Also, the number of HD66 voters with a four-year degree is double that of the state average. This is great for Democrats since the data shows that this group is most likely to vote blue.

If you live in North Texas, you might be thinking, but didn’t Shaheen have a Democratic opponent in 2022? And how did that go?

I’ve discussed this a lot on Lone Star Left over the last year, but 2022 was a shit year for Democrats in Texas. While there are many reasons for that, Beto did move the needle further left than in the 2018 governor's race (Abbott vs. Lupe Valdez). Large in part, Democrats didn’t show up. It was a midterm year, and Texas Democratic voters suck at showing up during a midterm election.

In 2022, the turnout in HD66 specifically was 47%.

In 2024, during a presidential election, we should expect to see around 75% turnout, which is the turnout we saw in Collin County in 2020.

Shaheen did win the 2022 race against the Democratic candidate, Jesse Ringness. I met Ringness a few times during that cycle. He is a great guy with some fantastic policy ideas, but his campaign lacked money and visibility.

What should we expect to see for HD66 to flip?

If the Collin County Democratic Party is able to pull off a 75% voter in November, it will flip the entire county blue and perhaps one or more of the Texas House districts to flip. Higher turnout always benefits Democrats, especially in areas with shifting demographics.

David Carstens should focus on targeted voter outreach, especially the new 25,000ish voters since the last redistricting cycle. Educating and mobilizing these new residents will be critical for his campaign.

David Carstens' campaign needs to focus on local issues that resonate deeply with the constituents of HD66, such as education, healthcare, and economic development. Emphasizing inclusive and progressive policies could attract the increasingly diverse electorate. By looking at Carstens platform, he checks all of those boxes.

While gerrymandering has made HD66 challenging for Democrats, the rapid demographic changes and growth may dilute the intended effects of such districting. Carstens' strategy should include robust fundraising efforts and high visibility, leveraging both traditional and digital media to ensure his message reaches every corner of the district.

While I expect to see this in every county, candidates and organizations in Collin County especially should be coordinating with one another to create a united front. This will allow them to pool resources, share voter data, and coordinate on-ground activities.

Matt Shaheen's divisive stances and the internal conflicts within the Republican base present opportunities. David Carstens and Democratic groups in Collin County should highlight his controversial positions, and capitalize on any disenchantment among moderate Republicans and independents that could sway voters towards Carstens.

You can learn more about David Carstens on his website, Twitter, or TikTok.