Note: I began writing about Texas politics and Democratic races in 2020, making this the third election I’m writing about Democratic races in Texas. I spoke with the candidates in previous years, wrote about their races, and published interviews, but something is different this year. Something has changed.
Thus far, over a dozen Democrats in races up and down the ballots have contacted me to convince me that they can win their race. Democratic confidence this year is through the roof. I’ve noticed that this year, the feeling of “we’re going to win” is stronger and more prevalent than in previous years. When I spoke with Darrel Evans last week, he also expressed that sentiment.
With all the activity and noise happening in Collin County, we should expect it to flip this November. It’s been a long time coming, and for activists in this county, it’s well deserved. While Collin County has been gerrymandered into six separate Texas House seats, the five Republicans in this county only have a slight edge. When Collin County flips in November, we should expect some Texas House seats to flip along with it. We could see one, two, or even all of the Collin County seats turn blue. Like with every other race in Texas, it all depends on turnout.
Who is Darrel Evans?
Darrel Evans is a dedicated community member, father, and husband running for Texas House District 89 to bring much-needed change to his district. Raised by a single mother in a union household, Evans knows the value of hard work and the importance of supporting working families. He lives in Lowry Crossing (a small town in Collin County) with his wife, six-year-old son, and a small assembly of animals, including dogs, goats, and chickens.
With over two decades of experience in sales and operations across various industries, Evans understands businesses’ challenges and what they need to thrive. His background as an Advertising Consultant in the automotive industry gives him unique insights into local economic needs.
Evans decided to run for office after witnessing firsthand the failures of the current leadership during the 2021 winter freeze, where his community struggled without adequate support from elected officials. His campaign focuses on supporting public schools, improving healthcare access and affordability, and enhancing local infrastructure. Evans’ commitment to his community is evident in his active involvement during crises and his ongoing efforts to listen to and address the concerns of his neighbors.
Who is he running against?
Republican incumbent Candy Noble is a member of the Gilead Wives Club and one of Representative Valoree Swanson’s top lieutenants. This means she does very little in the Texas House without Swanson’s marching orders. Over the last several legislative sessions, because of her ties with the Texas Freedom Caucus and with big donors, Swanson has been the ring-leader of the Republican women in the House, who have made their own mean girls clique. Noble is just one of the women who follows Swanson around, beckoning to her every call.
Noble’s political career has been unremarkable. With three legislative terms under her belt, she’s mostly played as a background character to the mean-girl Republicans in the House. She votes along party lines and doesn’t make waves.
Noble might not be a headline maker, but her votes against the LGBTQ community, communities of color, and voting rights actively harm her district. Noble is one of the women who rallied behind banning abortions in Texas.
Here is Noble being brutally taken down by Representative James Talarico (D) for introducing a Christofascist bill to put the Ten Commandments in the classrooms of public schools.
Candy Noble is okay with turning Texas into a Christian Nationalist state; she’s against women’s rights, and she does all of this at the behest of others.
Nobel voted to impeach Ken Paxton and barely made it through a primary challenge. Her challenger, Abraham George, lost the race for HD89 but is now the Chairman of the Republican Party of Texas.
Between Nobel’s break with Ken Paxton and her primary ticket opponent's election to lead the state party, Nobel has likely lost some Republican support in the district.
What about this district?
Now, here is where it gets interesting. When I spoke with Evans last week about what it would take to flip this district, he reminded me that tens of thousands of people have moved into HD89 since redistricting.
He’s right. Collin County is one of the fastest-growing counties in America, and the cities within HD89 are growing exponentially.
Between 2010 and 2022, Texas grew at a rate of 19%, while Collin County grew at a rate of 47%.
In addition, like everywhere else in Texas, Collin County has become more diverse and less white.
This matters a lot in terms of flipping Collin County and every district within because we know that the majority of Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters vote for Democrats.
Republicans gave themselves an +11-point advantage when they redrew the maps in 2021, but that “advantage” had dwindled greatly.
When Republicans cut up the pie for redistricting, they only gave most Republican districts 50% to 55% of the Anglo population to these “red” districts. The reason that they did that they did this is because Texas is now a majority-minority state, and there simply was no more of the “white pie” to slice up.
After redistricting, this district was only 53% Anglo. Since then, Collin County has seen major population shifts. It wouldn’t be surprising if HD89 is a majority-minority district now.
Educational attainment and income in this district are slightly higher than the average for Texas as a whole. As we already know, educated voters are most often Democratic voters, so that gives Evans a slight edge in HD89.
In recent presidential elections, Collin County Democrats have had a high voter turnout. 2022 sucked for Democrats across the state, but midterm elections are different. However, in 2022, Nobles ran unopposed.
Evans is the first Democratic challenger in HD89 since redistricting.
The momentum building in Collin County and across Texas signals a new chapter in the state’s political landscape.
As we move closer to November, the energy and determination among Democrats like Darrel Evans is clear. With changing demographics, a growing population, and an increasing number of engaged voters, the future of districts like HD89 looks brighter than ever. The winds of change are blowing through Texas, and this election could be the one that finally turns the tide.
Vote early, vote often, just vote.
You can learn more about Darrel Evans on his website, Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram.
The Blue Battle 2024 is my series covering races in the Texas Legislature (in no particular order). This series will highlight Democratic candidates once or twice a week leading to the November election. If you missed the previous installments:
August 19: Last day for write-in candidates to declare their candidacy.
October 7: Last day to register to vote.
October 21: First day to early vote.
October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!
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