Countdown To Election Day: Is Texas Ready To Turn Blue?

Early Voting Day 8 Update: The numbers, trends, and counties to watch.

There are only seven days left until it’s all over. It can’t come soon enough. After Trump’s Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden the other night, I said that we should be prepared for violence after the election. I stand by that, and before we get into a recap of Day 8 early voting numbers, we have to discuss the insanity happening in the country right now.

When Democrats talk about how democracy is under attack, this is what they mean:

The video showed a ballot box burning in Vancouver, WA. Local authorities have reported hundreds of ballots possibly damaged in the fire. WA is a blue state, but the area where this happened has a competitive congressional election.

This arson attack came only hours after another ballot box was set on fire in Portland, OR. Another Vancouver ballot box was also set on fire in early October. Then, last week in Arizona, a USPS mailbox was set on fire.

Also, in Arizona last week, a man was arrested for shooting at a DNC office outside of Phoenix.

Texas isn’t immune. This week, the San Marcos police department received two reports of intimidating flyers attached to campaign signs in the city. These fliers claimed that when Trump wins, he will bring four years of pain to Democrats. And in Bexar County last week, a Maga-moron punched a poll worker when they asked him to remove his Maga hat.

Yesterday, the Department of Homeland Security warned that online forums used by domestic violent extremists contain threats of violence against election officials and infrastructure “to prevent perceived fraud or to retaliate against it.”

In preparation for the election, non-scalable fencing and other security measures have been installed around the US Capitol.

Last night, Capitol Police used multiple helicopters to conduct a “casualty evacuation exercise” on the Capitol lawn.

• The Nevada Governor is activating their National Guard for Election Day.

• Arizona has erected barbed wire and high fences at some polling places.

There are only seven days left (including today), and it seems like the nation is on edge, anticipating Republican violence.

It’s clear that we, as citizens, are not in control of the chaos the GOP seems content to let run rampant. Despite efforts to safeguard the election process, we’re left hoping that every system—from local law enforcement to national security—can handle the strain and keep the peace. Ultimately, the stability of our democracy rests on the preparedness of these institutions, and all we can do is pray they’re equipped for what might come.

Which brings us to the latest numbers for Day 8 of early voting…

Day 8 of early voting (Monday, 10/28).

Texas added 741K votes on Monday. Of these, 83.3% came from urban counties, the highest weekday percentage we have seen in early voting this year. Here’s where we’re at:

• Over 6 million Texans have already cast a ballot

• Or, 32.37% of registered voters.

• Including today, there are four days left of early voting.

Harris and Dallas Counties, the two biggest counties and Democratic strongholds in Texas, still aren’t where we want to see them. Please don’t take that as bad since they still have time to catch up.

Based on their average daily turnout, it doesn’t look like either county will hit the same early voter turnout by the end of Friday that the did in 2020, but maybe they will surprise us. Plus, there’s still election day, which could be bigger this year than in 2020, or maybe not. We’ll see.

Based on their 2020 numbers, Bexar and Tarrant County have been overperforming. Bexar County had its biggest day yesterday, with 52K people showing up to vote.

This aligns with the prediction that we’ll see a larger amount of votes in week two than in week one. Even though Bexar hasn’t quite hit the 30% turnout rate yet, they’ll get there today. They may not have hit the same early voter turnout rate that they had in 2020, but remember that mail-in voting is a huge factor.

While Dallas County has nearly caught up with Tarrant County in turnout, Tarrant is still about 20K ahead of Dallas.

I know some of the Lone Star Left readers in Travis County want to hear about what’s going on there, but y’all are doing great and making other counties jealous.

The Secretary of State hasn’t updated Williamson County since Saturday, so I didn’t add their numbers. If tomorrow’s update doesn’t have them, I’ll get them from the WilCo Elections site. Williamson County is a high-turnout county, so there is no reason to be concerned.

Both Collin and Denton County are still seeing a surge, but their Day 8 numbers aren’t as high as we should expect. They have all week to pick up the pace.

In 2020, Collin and Denton County ended the last day of early voting just under 70% turnout. I think they both can hit the same numbers this year and have a strong finish on Election Day.

Fort Bend and Brazoria County are still seeing a high turnout, with Brazoria County hitting over 40% turnout. I don’t have any classes on Friday, so I plan on doing a deep dive on Brazoria County’s historical results. If the rumors I hear about Brazoria County Democrats kicking ass and taking names are true, we may see some unexpected flips in this part of the state.

Bell County is still doing fantastic. While their turnout seems lower than some of the other counties we’re watching, you have to understand where they started from. In 2020, Bell County’s total turnout after election day was only 58.98%. If they hit a 60% turnout this year, then Democrats there will be doing good. Remember, there are two seats we can flip in Bell County, and if they hit closer to 65%, we may be looking at two flips.

Our border counties are still behind, but these are counties that also typically have low voter turnout. The goal for them should be to beat their 2020 numbers.

The total 2020 voter turnout, through election day with these counties was:

• El Paso County: 54.6%

• Hidalgo County: 56.45%

• Cameron County: 52.16%

They are on track to meet or even exceed their 2020 numbers. I’m still concerned about El Paso County, but they have all week to pick up the numbers.

Rural Texas has the weakest weekday turnout yesterday, and we hope to see this number continue to drop through the week.

Turnout in Rural Texas:

• Day 1: 20.6%

• Day 2: 19.5%

• Day 3: 18.6%

• Day 4: 18%

• Day 5: 18.1%

• Day 6: 14.7%

• Day 7: 13.7%

• Day 8: 16.7%

Ideally, rural, red voters will drop off, while blue, urban voters continue all week at a steady pace or even increase. That’s the pattern we’ve seen in previous elections, hopefully that’s a pattern that will continue. Remember, the key to flipping Texas relies heavily on the most urban and populous areas.

And the red counties we’ve been following:

What’s happening in Comal County? Althouth Comal is trending left, it has a long way to go and is in every since of the word a red county. They saw their biggest turnout day yesterday and their turnout rate is on the high end. It’ll be interesting to see after the election is over, what was driving this. Right now, we don’t know.

Other red counties, like Galveston and Lubbock saw their numbers nosedive yesterday, which is what we want to see from red counties. (No offense to the blue dots.)

Here is the total in-person turnout in all of Texas for 2024 vs 2020.

Source

Again, our in-person votes are looking fantastic, but the mail-in votes are nowhere near what they were in 2020, which is impacting the total turnout.

Check out this article from The Hill (yes, the right-leaning Hill), “What if Texas goes blue?” It’s a good piece on Texas’ potential to become a key swing state in the 2024 election and how if Texas were to flip blue, Harris would only need one other battleground state to secure the presidency.

With only a week left, it’s clear Texas is shaping up to be a focal point in this election, and every vote counts.

Urban centers are pulling strong numbers, and while there’s room for improvement in certain areas, it’s promising to see the momentum. Red counties’ turnout is leveling off, which could signal a positive shift for Texas Democrats. While mail-in voting might lag compared to 2020, the in-person turnout is encouraging, and if it holds steady through Election Day, we could witness Texas on the brink of a historic shift. The question remains: if Texas goes blue, are we ready for what comes next?

• November 1: Last day to early vote.

• November 5: Election day!

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