Lone Star Left

2.28 Million Votes And Counting, The Unknowns Are Climbing

Michelle H. Davis — Fri, 23 Oct 2026 02:05:41 GMT

I finally voted today. I went with my mother-in-law at 10 this morning in Tarrant County, and the line was still an hour long. But it’s done now.

Last night, the Secretary of State (SOS) dropped a heap of day two’s numbers onto its website. Not every county was showing up. Because I spent yesterday getting the early voting (EV) roster directly from coun…

Day 3: The Lines Are Long And The SOS Is MIA

Michelle H. Davis — Thu, 22 Oct 2026 01:55:17 GMT

When Secretary of State (SOS) Jane Nelson resigned, Abbott appointed Robert Howden to lead us through the 2026 election. His qualifications include being Abbott’s former senior advisor.

Texas’ Secretary Of State Sucks, And Other Election Notes

Michelle H. Davis — Wed, 21 Oct 2026 00:09:20 GMT

We now have polls closed for day two, but the Secretary of State still hasn’t completely reported on day one’s numbers.

When Democrats take control of the state, whenever that may be, we should push them to make the Secretary of State an elected position. Because, as Greg Abbott’s lapdog, there are too many questions and too much distrust. Even if Gina …

Something Is Happening In Texas

Michelle H. Davis — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 04:49:00 GMT

A few weeks ago, we all had a good laugh at Tim Dunn Media crying about how they knew they were going to lose the election. But I pointed out that in that video, he encouraged all the foot soldiers to show up at the polls on Day 1 and Day 2, a seeming reversal of their previous stance that “early voting is cheating.”

So, before we get to the numbers and …

A Look At The World Beyond Before Tomorrow

Michelle H. Davis — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 23:28:37 GMT

Early voting starts tomorrow in Texas. Some of you may be jumping out of your skin and ready to cast your vote as soon as the polls open. I expect long lines everywhere, especially in Tarrant County, where so many polling locations were cut.

I usually try to vote at the end of the first week, or sometime during the second week, so the lines are shorter. Here are some “Special Tips for First-Time or Infrequent Voters.”

I’ll be watching the polls across the state tomorrow, and you should expect a full report from me late tomorrow on how the first day shook out in Texas. If it gets too late, it may be early Tuesday. We should expect the Secretary of State to be slower than each county’s election website, but not every county posts its early voting numbers. Stay tuned.

Before we spend the next two weeks deep in early voting in Texas, let’s look up from our own backyard for a moment. Control of Congress won’t be decided in Texas alone. And Talarico is only a small piece of the future possible Senate majority.

The US Senate.

Earlier this year, during the Michigan primary, I may have mentioned once or twice how much I liked Abdul El-Sayed, and hoped he won. And every clip I see of him continues to solidify those feelings.

El-Sayed has maintained a lead in Michigan polls. He is likely to win in MI. Early voting in MI starts on October 24. Two of his top priorities are money out of politics and Medicare for All. Secretly, I’m hoping he and James Talarico become besties.

Besides Talarico and El-Sayed, several other Senate races are happening across the country.

The race in Florida, unfortunately, is still “Likely R,” but the Democratic candidate, Angie Nixon, honestly should be polling much higher. Her priorities include Medicare for All and getting big money out of politics.

Florida Democrats have long shared some of the problems of Texas, being under-organized and completely ignored by the national apparatus. Nixon is being outraised by the Republican running, and I found no reporting of any DSCC or Senate Majority PAC ad money for Nixon. Most of her national support is coming from the progressive wing, like Bernie Sanders and Chris Murphy.

Did you know Iowa has only 3.1 million people? It’s kind of crazy that they get two Senators, while Texas, with a population of 31.7 million, gets the same number.

Iowa’s Democratic Senate candidate, Josh Turek, is a populist pragmatist. He isn’t as far left as El-Sayed and Nixon, but he refused corporate PAC money, wants to ban congressional stock trading, backs the PRO Act, and wants to keep Wall Street private equity from buying up Iowa homes and farmland.

Turek is leading in Iowa polls against his MAGA opponent, but not by much. Early voting has already started here.

Then there’s Ohio, which is interesting. Sherrod Brown lost a Senate seat in 2024 to Bernie Moreno (R). Now he’s running against Jon Husted, whom the Ohio Governor appointed to JD Vance’s old seat when Vance became VP. Brown has led every poll this month by between 3 and 8 points.

The entire Maine Senate race has been a disaster. However, looking at the Democratic nominee, Troy Jackson’s, platform is absolutely progressive, with Medicare for All, abolishing ICE, and banning members of Congress from trading stocks. He’s a great replacement for that other guy. Compared with Susan Collins, you would think it would be easy for the people of Maine to choose.

Jackson is up in the polls, but only slightly.

Last, in Alaska, there’s Mary Peltola. She’s taking on incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. Peltola has led in every poll since September. She’s rejected the label of “liberal” and is running as a moderate. And her priorities read like it. And if that’s what it takes to flip Alaska. Okay, it’s not us.

Five Senate seats are toss-ups: AK, IA, ME, OH, and TX.

If Democrats flip all five, they will hold 53 seats in the Senate, which is not a filibuster-proof majority. It takes 60 votes to end a filibuster in the US Senate. We’ll be seven short, and I’m not sure that John Fetterman counts as one of us.

And then the question becomes whether Chuck Schumer has the political courage to kill the filibuster when it matters, if he becomes Majority Leader. And how that plays out may determine what AOC does in 2028. Or perhaps she’s already made up her mind.

El-Sayed’s race is in a blue seat, but he’ll be replacing moderate Gary Peters (D). But he’s far from the only incoming (🤞🏻) progressive in the Senate.

Juliana Stratton, running in a mostly safe blue Illinois, will be replacing Dick Durbin (D). Her platform calls for a $25 minimum wage, Medicare for All, and abolishing ICE. Plus, she said she won’t support Schumer for leader because he’s too tepid.

Peggy Flanagan, a rising progressive star from Minnesota, has Elizabeth Warren among her backers. Flanagan’s platform promises “radical change,” including tearing apart ICE and expanding Medicare to everyone.

Both Stratton and Flanagan are shifts left, compared to their Democratic predecessors.

What about progressives going into Congress?

Almost 30 new progressives are expected to join Congress in January. We already know who’s coming from Texas, but here are a few solid progressives you should expect to see in the next two years.

Ideally, we want progressives to win and keep replacing the moderate and establishment wing of the party, because the majority is only worth something if we’re willing to use it. A caucus full of people who ran on Medicare for All and refused corporate money doesn’t get to hide behind procedure, because their voters will hold them accountable.

Safe blue seats:

Red seats, expected to flip blue:

The rest of the country matters, even if we don’t vote in it.

In Washington, DC, it’s all about the majority. Except in the Senate, where it’s more about a three-fifths majority, but that’s a discussion for another day.

Reading recommendation:

Kill Switch: The Rise of the Modern Senate and the Crippling of American Democracy by Adam Jentelson.

Texas has to show up and do its part, too.

Make a plan to vote, whether that’s tomorrow morning or the end of next week. Then take one person with you. A neighbor, a coworker, the cousin who swears their vote doesn’t count.

I’ll see you tomorrow night with the first-day numbers.

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16 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

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The GOP’s 20% Problem

Michelle H. Davis — Sat, 17 Oct 2026 21:42:17 GMT

The Secretary of State’s (SOS) website is starting to report received mail-in ballots. As of this writing, the SOS reports 44,537 mail-in ballots. NBC News Decision Desk is also reporting the mail-in votes cast, and it says 70,024.

And while early voting doesn’t start until Monday, this may be an early indication of how slow we can expect the SOS report to be on election night.

You may have heard earlier this week that there was still a 600,000-applicant backlog in the voter registration process. Texas now says the glitch has been fixed, and we have a record 19 million registered voters. 19,041,684, to be exact.

We need a record midterm, that much we know. Republicans have all lost their minds, and we need immediate checks and balances.

In Texas, what does history tell us about midterm turnout (at the top of the ticket)?

2022: 45% voter turnout = Republicans win by 10 points
2018: 53% voter turnout = Republicans win by 2 points
2014: 33.14% voter turnout = Republicans win by 27 points

Generally, higher voter turnout spells bad news for Republicans, which is why every legislative session they are pushing bills to try to make it harder to vote. We’ll know Monday whether we’re seeing record early-voting turnout, like other states are.

Though, I’d like to err on the side of caution about taking that as a definitive sign for Democrats, since this year Republicans are talking about “Uno-Reverse, early voting isn’t cheating anymore, now vote on day one.”

Another quick look at national numbers:

North Carolina: Democrats lead Republicans by 24.8 points among early voters, compared with D+10.3 at this point in 2022.

Iowa: Only one day into early voting, and Dems are +27.7, compared to +12 on the same day in 2022.

Georgia: First day of early voting was up 40% compared to 2022.

Trump voters in South Texas see Democrats as “a beacon of light.”

NYTimes released a video report yesterday from Texas’s Rio Grande Valley to see how voters felt about the upcoming race. This is an area in which, for years, Conservative Democrats have been pushing the base both to the right and toward disengagement.

In this report, a three-time Trump voter described Democrats right now as “God—a beacon of light.” From the article:

In the RGV counties, which Democrats lost in the last several years, we should expect them all to swing back blue.

In 2027 and going into 2028, it’ll be important for everyone in Texas who cares about getting our Conservative Democrats (like Henry Cuellar and Richard Raymond) elected in the next cycle to support progressive candidates and movements in the RGV, like DSA RGV and Ground Game RGV. But we have lots of time to talk about that.

Right now, Republicans are totally panicking. Not a single statewide Republican incumbent would debate their Democratic opponents. Not one.

Former Speaker Dade Phelan (R) told Texas Monthly the Republicans are freaking out and he expects a blue wave. Here are some of my favorite quotes from Phelan:

“There’s serious concern like I’ve never seen before.”
“We’re just not paying attention to the issues that matter.”
“The 8 to 10 percent of voters in the middle who are going to decide this election, when they hear stuff about boys in girls’ sports, they don’t even know what you’re talking about.”
“When people are spending $1,500, $2,000 a month on health care for their family, and we’re too afraid to even talk about health care, and we’re still talking about defund[ing] the police, which happened six years ago . . . I mean, we’ve got to catch up with the times.”
“People compare this to 2018 [when Beto O’Rourke came within three points of winning a Senate race], but Paxton is nothing like Ted Cruz.”
“Is there almost something inevitable about a party that hasn’t lost in more than thirty years nominating a guy like Bo French, who seems to represent all of the worst instincts of the party’s base?”
“When I’ve seen polls that say 20 percent of Republican voters are seriously thinking about not voting for Paxton, that feels right. It may be high, but it feels right. I went to the football game [in late August] where TCU played North Carolina, in Dublin. I’m on the TCU side, of course, and a lot of Fort Worth people, they’re coming up to me because they recognize me, and they’re like, “I’m skipping the race, or I may actually vote for a Democrat for the first time ever.”

If Republicans in Texas see a 20% collapse of their base, it’s over for them.

In 2022, Abbott beat Beto by 880,000 votes, which is just under 20% of the Republican base. So, if 20% of them had stayed home that year, Beto would have won. Now, combine that with Democrats being over-energized and ready to kick Republicans to the curb, and it’s just not setting up to be a good next few weeks for the GOP.

Listen to these Republicans from Reuters:

Did you hear that one lady? “If Texas turns blue, then I’ll have to move back to Arkansas.” And did you also notice everyone in this video was old and white, in a state where the population is only 38% white? This one-minute video said a lot without saying it.

For many years, Texas has been a destination for overtly political Conservatives, seeking to escape the taxes of wherever they came from. Often, they called themselves “refugees” (especially if they were from California).

In recent years, many of those “refugees” have felt regret and moved back to their home states. Maybe if we finally turn Texas blue, the rest will jump ship, and we can finally have a better state, with healthcare, a working grid, and a government that finally works for the people.

Honestly, I’m giddy.

I’ve been through enough Texas election cycles to know the routine. Usually, around October, I get a sinking feeling. That feeling you have when you know everything is about to fall apart. But this year, I feel really good.

A lot of it has to do with the math and what we’ve been seeing on the ground, but remember the Marist Poll said 66% of Democrats say a campaign has contacted them, compared with 51% of Republicans. Having a Democrat in every seat across the board will really pay off. Texas Democrats are building the wave right here.

The math is there. The doors are getting knocked. All that’s left is the turnout.

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17 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.

The Courage Caucus Is Coming. Four North Texans Want In.

Michelle H. Davis — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 17:19:12 GMT

A new PAC is in town. (The town of Washington, DC.) They’re called Courage for Democracy, and after the election, they’re starting a new Caucus in Congress. I met with them yesterday, and their program is really exciting.

Every candidate they back has pledged to file articles of impeachment against Donald Trump on day one. Not “explore our options.” Not “let the process play out.”

Day one. Tyranny, treason, and obstruction of justice.

While they had about 150 candidates in the primary, only 26 advanced to the general election, including FOUR Texas Democrats. Coincidentally, all in North Texas.

All four of these Democrats are taking on Republican incumbents, and all four have signed a code of ethics with Courage for Democracy. If enough of them win, they become the Courage Caucus, or whatever they decide to call themselves.

What’s the purpose of this caucus? The same idea as the Freedom Caucus, and to punch above their weight in a narrow House margin. Just no evil, because the Freedom Caucus was evil. The Courage Caucus WANTS Congress to do its job.

This PAC calls itself “nonpartisan,” but the platform reads like a progressive wish list. And maybe it’s time to talk again about progressive values in an upcoming article.

Gina Hinojosa gave a fantastic interview with Politico recently, where the discussion of her being a progressive came up (timestamp 19:50). And you have to hear how she framed it.

She said her positions haven’t changed, but she now calls herself an “economic populist,” not a progressive. She said that people associate “progressive” too much with culture war issues and that economic populists focus on economic issues.

Okay. Semantics. She’s doing that for the election and the moderate vote. But progressive policies have always been about the economy and making sure it functions for the working class. However, if we want to call an apple a Granny Smith, who cares?

And I say that because, under their nonpartisan title, they’ve built a platform that includes only issues that poll well with Americans. Not just Democrats, but all Americans. You and I might look at their platform and say, “That’s progressive,” but when we look at national polling on these issues, it’s more middle, and Congress hasn’t been listening.

Reminder: Lone Star Left takes no PAC money, including theirs. This is an introduction because I’m genuinely excited about what they’re building.

Every single Courage Candidate was told in the beginning that they had to pay to play or sit down. I get the same deal as an independent political writer. The big outlets and paid influencers answer to the people who fund them, and it’s never “the people.”

If this newsletter helps keep you informed about Texas politics, a district, a donor, or a vote, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. There’s no paywall. Everything stays free because some readers decide to keep it that way.

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What is this group about?

Courage for Democracy didn’t start as a PAC. It started as Citizens Impeachment, a grassroots outfit that spent 2025 calling Congressional offices and asking members to do their jobs. And when Congress declined, they went out looking for people who would.

In November 2025, it began recruiting congressional candidates, then registered with the FEC in January 2026. The price of admission wasn’t monetary; it was a pledge. The pledge is that every Courage Candidate promises to file articles of impeachment against Donald Trump on day one for tyranny, treason, and obstruction of justice. They also signed a code of ethics.

The platform rests on five planks:

Pro-impeachment
Anti-corruption
Anti-oligarchy
Anti-authoritarianism
Anti-ICE

Anything else joins the platform when two-thirds of the candidates back it. They voted on more than 100 policy positions, and the PAC says every one that made its policy matrix cleared 80%.

The endgame is a voting bloc committed to responsive government.

The math.

I know some of you are thinking, “What can a handful of freshmen do in a 435-seat House?”

Some of you may remember this guy:

In January 2015, nine Republicans founded the House Freedom Caucus. By September, they led the charge to oust Speaker John Boehner. In 2023, the same faction made Kevin McCarthy sit through 15 ballots to get the gavel. Nine months later, Republicans voted with Democrats to take it away from him.

In a narrow House, a small bloc willing to vote together needs the margins and a little bit of elbow grease, and they can make big things happen.

The left ran a simialar experiment at a smaller level with the Squad. Is the Squad technically Justice Democrats? They’re growing this year, too. But their membership is still smaller.

Desk HQ gives Democrats a 77 percent shot at the House and projects them at 235 seats. A majority that size can lose 17 votes and shrug. To block anything, the Courage Caucus would need 18 members voting together.

That also goes for what passes, including impeachment.

Of course, none of this happens unless they win. Which is why we have to make sure the Texas four make it over the finish line.

The platform.

The Courage candidates agree on a lot. Their policy matrix lists 15 positions with unanimous support. Including:

Ban Citizens United.
Ban Congressional stock trading.
Enforce antitrust laws.
Close corporate tax loopholes.
Protect LGBTQ+ people.
Nationwide paid family leave.

Another few dozen passed with nobody voting no. Some voted “present.” Those include universal healthcare with dental and vision, the Green New Deal, taxing the wealthy, and universal background checks.

The Texas four.

TX03: Evan Hunt vs. Keith Self (R). Cook rating +11R. Hunt is an Air Force officer and former defense and aerospace executive based in McKinney. Keith Self quotes Joseph Goebbels.
TX04: Jason Pearce vs. Pat Fallon (R). Cook rating +12R. Pearce is a UNT graduate from Plano whose progressive platform goes far beyond the coalition consensus. Pat Fallon is a Massachusetts grifter.
TX05: Chelsey Hockett vs. Lance Gooden (R). Cook rating +10R. Hockett is a progressive mom from Kaufman County who recently sought the local DSA endorsement. Lance Gooden is the biggest liar in Texas and one of Trump’s top soldiers.
TX06: Danny Minton vs. Jake Ellzey (R). Cook rating +11R. Minton spent his career training doctors and supporting patients with breast cancer and Alzheimer’s. He lives in Arlington with his wife and two sons. Jake Ellzey doesn’t live in Arlington, but made sure an Arlington post office got named after a January 6th traitor.

Ten, eleven, twelve points. Taylor Rehmet won by 30-ish. Not saying that means they’ll all flip, but they all have potential this year, in this environment, with this big blue wave (fingers crossed).

Texas isn’t a red state. It’s a non-voting state. And the day we become a voting state is the day these districts stop being red. And all four of these candidates are betting that Texans are tired of not voting.

These four Texas candidates signed a pledge.

They promised to earn your vote, and not just be less shitty than the other guy. And they promised on day one, they’d do the thing most of Congress has spent years explaining why it can’t.

None of this is guaranteed. The Courage Caucus may wind up with eighteen members. It may wind up with three. It all depends on us getting to the polls.

Early voting runs Monday, October 19, through Friday, October 30. Election Day is November 3. Find your polling place at VoteTexas.gov. Bring your ID. Bring a friend. Bring two.

Courage is contagious. So is voting. Be patient zero.

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19 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.

Numbers, Numbers, Numbers. What Does It Mean?

Michelle H. Davis — Wed, 14 Oct 2026 19:44:23 GMT

Virginia began early voting in September. By October 11, Virginia recorded more than 519,000 early ballots, compared with about 260,000 on the same day in 2022. This means their turnout (so far) is nearly double what it was in the last midterm election.

In Michigan, absentee ballots can be mailed in and submitted in drop boxes. Already, 6% of registered voters have cast a ballot, and Michigan is up 20% compared to this same point in 2022.

Early voting has also begun in Ohio, where 200,000 people have already voted in person. That’s four times higher than the 2022 midterm.

In Georgia, the Georgia Secretary of State said the Midterm early voting turnout record was shattered last week.

Everywhere, voting is up substantially compared to 2022. Double. Quadruple.

But what does it mean?

Republicans expected a red wave in 2022, and it never materialized. They picked up only nine House seats, Democrats held the Senate, and Republicans flipped only one governor’s race, while Democrats flipped three.

Why did Republicans expect to have a red wave in 2022? And why did it fizzle out?

In every midterm after WWII, the president’s party lost an average of 27 House seats and four Senate seats. And Biden wasn’t exactly popular. So, models built on that precedent predicted Democrats would lose 45 seats.

Because polls previously underestimated Republicans in 2016 and 2020, Republican-leaning pollsters overinflated Republicans’ chances in 2022.

Why did Republicans underperform in the 2022 midterm? Mostly because of Dobbs. Partly because of the election denial.

Democrats only overperformed in swing seats and statewide races with weak GOP nominees. Everywhere else, like Texas, they had a bad midterm.

But what does it mean for 2026?

Honestly, it means we’re all here together speculating and hoping that it means something good. We can talk about the signs and indicators, but until Steve Kornacki rolls up his sleeves on election night, we’re just guessing.

This Marist Poll, what does it mean?

This morning, Marist Poll dropped its latest. Talarico up by 2, Abbott up by 4, Trump disapproval at 54% in Texas. But the crosstabs have everyone losing their minds.

Basically, this poll’s sample is +14 (R), which is redder than Texas was in 2024. Republicans won in 2024 with +12. Even with a redder sample, it still shows Talarico ahead. This could be a really bad sign for Republicans.

Caveat. Marist’s likely-voter model leans on voting history, and Republicans say they “always” vote at a much higher rate than Democrats. If, in 2026, Democrats turn out people who usually don’t vote, the model can’t see them. And in Texas, that’s a lot of people.

Also, this should be noted, and I don’t think it’s been widely discussed. In this Marist Poll, 66% of Democrats say a campaign has contacted them, compared with 51% of Republicans.

The question now is who is going to show up?

Is enthusiasm a thing?

Most Texans don’t even vote. When 44% of registered voters stay home in a critical election (like a mid-term), the results depend on which half showed up. Habitual voters (like me and you) show up no matter what. Occasional voters show up when they’re scared, angry, or excited.

Trump has given the American people a lot to fear.

Texas Republicans have given Texans a lot to be angry over.

And the thought of finally flipping Texas blue has excited many people. Maybe?

On the other hand, Texas Republicans may be scared to lose power. Fear could drive them out. They’d rather pay the high property taxes, live without healthcare and access to water, and pay $300 electric bills than vote for someone with a (D) next to their name. The scary commercials from Republicans every ten minutes will terrify them into going to the polls.

We don’t have to guess. The Texas Politics Project polled registered voters on their enthusiasm this year.

Texas Democrats are slightly more enthusiastic about voting this year, while Texas Republicans are substantially less enthusiastic.

63% of Democrats rated their enthusiasm 10 out of 10, compared with 50% of Republicans and 41% of Independents.

But really, enthusiasm is only a feeling. Nothing is real until everyone casts their ballot.

But what if the early surge is Republicans?

Remember, for years, Republicans said early voting was cheating, but then they figured out that forcing their aging base to only vote on election day was problematic. And then, last week, we talked about how Tim Dunn’s mouthpiece was already crying about the midterm results:

One interesting point I thought he made on his podcast was telling his audience to vote on the first or second day of early voting. It was the first time I think I ever heard a Republican say that.

Last year (far-right-leaning), The Federalist published this article, which talks about various Conservative groups’ push to get Republicans to vote early.

This is starting to feel like a roller coaster. Don’t worry. Even if Republicans have convinced their base that it’s now cheating to vote on Election Day and you have to vote on the first day of early voting, it’ll all even out in the end.

The polls are on our side. Enthusiasm is on our side. But right now, we’re just making guesses. The only thing that counts is showing up.

Here’s why it’s looking pretty bleak for Republicans.

Kroger announced yesterday it’s laying off 37% of its workforce and replacing them with AI over the next three years. In September, employers added only 29,000 jobs, which was far below what was forecast. Wage growth has slowed to its lowest level since May 2021.

Gas is averaging $3.82 in Texas, below the national average of $4.36. Consumer prices, including food, are up 3.5% over the year. 30-year fixed mortgage rates are averaging 7.28%. Texas is currently leading the nation in home foreclosures.

In the Marist poll crosstabs, 58% of Democrats said their family finances were worse off this year, compared to 19% of Republicans.

All of these things in Texas that are broken, and in Congress under Trump, are broken because of Republican policy. The only way to change that is by voting.

Early voting starts next Monday, October 19.

You can vote anytime between then and Friday, October 30. You can also vote on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. You’ll have to find polling hours and locations in your county (Google).

There’s also ONE weekend of early voting. So, if that’s the only time you can get off work, you can also vote on Saturday/Sunday, October 24/25.

9.6 million registered voters didn’t show up in Texas in 2022. Let’s make sure they do in 2026.

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20 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.

Republicans Resort To Big Fat Lies

Michelle H. Davis — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 19:27:46 GMT

Last week, James Talarico had the flu. He regularly comes into contact with thousands of people, so picking up germs on the campaign trail is completely normal. He rested at his home in Austin, stayed in contact with his campaign, and even joined a Zoom call with a fever. Really, not a serious thing.

Not until Republican MAGA influencers on Twitter made up a tall tale about Talarico being in a mental hospital in Ohio. “Made up,” as in completely fabricated, as in it came from the imagination of some incel somewhere.

This lie went so far, so extreme, that they created a fake AI phone call to try to prove what they were saying. And that’s how they were caught. The phone call said Talarico was discharged that day, when he was literally spotted in Austin the day before. And it all crumbled from there.

As CNN reported ⬆️, this lie raked up millions and millions of views on Twitter (I don’t care what the Nazis renamed it to). Doesn’t that prove that Twitter is a misinformation platform?

Based on Elon’s baby mama, Ashley St. Clair’s lawsuit, this platform also produces child pornography. There have been lawsuits in California, Tennessee, and investigations in Europe, all regarding alleged sexually explicit AI-generated images of children.

The National Institutes of Health published a study in 2025, which concluded there was a measurable rise in hate speech, racist slurs, and extremist rhetoric following Elon Musk’s takeover of the platform.

Twitter is the propaganda arm for the far-right, built by an oligarch, run on patriarchy, and fueled by racism, nationalism, and whatever toxic sludge pays for a checkmark this week.

Some of this is indefensible.

It’s supposed to be a criminal offense to distribute deepfakes in Texas. Republicans passed that law last year. Not to mention impersonation and defamation.

This is a good time to remind everyone that Section 230 shields Twitter (and other social media companies) from what users post, and there have been bipartisan efforts to repeal it in the past. Those efforts have been mostly blocked by industry.

The Section 230 discussion really deserves its own post, because it’s been marketed as limiting free speech, instead of actual content moderation. But Twitter, a platform without content moderation, seems to make the argument for us.

We have to win elections if we ever want a better world.

This morning, one of the Krassenstein twins released a video featuring an audio clip from Twitter with Ken Paxton’s Senior Advisor, Michelle Smith. The clip implies the Paxton campaign helped invent this lie.

Yeah, you heard that right. Here’s the full video from the Wall Street Journal:

Once a crook, always a crook.

Republicans lie because they can’t run on what they’ve actually done to Texas. So, they are just out here making shit up.

Like “Gina Hinojosa voted to raise taxes 40 times.”

The more I think about this particular lie, the more irritating it becomes.

Republicans want you to believe the Republican Legislature passed a bill out of a Republican-led committee 40 times, then sent it to the Republican-led House floor 40 times, where Hinojosa had the opportunity to vote on it.

Not to mention that the Texas State Legislature doesn’t levy property taxes.

This lie has been debunked by the Houston Chronicle.
Also, the Texas Democratic Party.

They lie for the sake of lying and hope the people listening will believe it.

And that’s why lies become dangerous.

For years, the phrase most repeated in mainstream media was “Trump’s Big Lie.” Funny, we don’t hear that term thrown around anymore. But it was the lies from Trump and right-wing media and influencers that eventually led to the attempted January 6 insurrection.

In 2016, Russia ran a sweeping operation to help Trump win. A Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee confirmed it in a five-volume bipartisan report. Yet, Trump lied about it being a hoax. His base believed him. A decade later, we’re still dealing with him.

Trump spent five years claiming America’s first Black president was born in Kenya. The conspiracy theory got so out of hand that Obama eventually published his long-form birth certificate. But by then, it was too late. A 2016 poll showed that 72% of registered Republicans doubted President Obama’s citizenship.

You know, when George Dubya Bush told us all there were “weapons of mass destruction” in Iraq in 2003, he was lying. 4,500 American troops died, along with hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.

When Republicans tell lies, our society suffers. And in the age of Trump, the GOP has almost normalized lying.

Bill Adair, the founder of Politifact, talks in this interview ⬆️ about how Republicans lie way more (and it isn’t even close). He sums it up to Newt Gingrich’s takeover of House Republicans in the early ’90s and how it created an “anything goes” culture where winning justifies everything. Adair also talks about how right-wing media doesn’t challenge them, instead repeating their lies for profit.

Adair said that Americans assume that politicians have always lied.

Maybe they have. But lies in political spaces used to be treated a lot differently.

In 1954, Republican Joseph McCarthy had spent four years smearing people as communists with no proof. Then a lawyer named Joseph Welch asked him on live television, “Have you no sense of decency, sir?” His career was over shortly after that.

In 1998, Republicans impeached Bill Clinton for lying under oath. They argued that a president who lies can’t be trusted with the office.

Lying used to have consequences.

Then came Trump.

Donald Trump made 30,573 false or misleading claims in his first term, according to the Washington Post. Republicans rewarded him with a re-election.

So the consequences aren’t coming from Washington anymore. Congress won’t deliver them. The Texas Senate wouldn’t deliver them to Ken Paxton. Elon Musk sure as hell won’t. The only accountability left is the ballot.

And brace yourself. If they’ll fake a phone call to put a Senate candidate in a psych ward, they’ll fake something worse before November 3. Don’t believe anything you see from Republicans (golden rule).

Early voting starts Monday, October 19, and runs through Friday, October 30. Election Day is November 3.

Vote all the way down the ballot. Senate. Governor. Railroad commissioner. Every judge. Every state house seat. And vote against every lying Republican on it.

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21 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Columbus Day, Extermination Wars, And The Texas History They Never Taught You

Michelle H. Davis — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 17:57:42 GMT

It’s been said a million times, by me and by others, that the Trump Administration is a white supremacist administration. So it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Mango Mussolini celebrated Christopher Columbus at the White House this weekend and pledged to protect his legacy.

In 1492, Columbus sailed the ocean blue. But by 1499, complaints about how Columbus and his brothers were running Hispaniola had reached Spain. Ferdinand and Isabella sent Francisco de Bobadilla to investigate. That led to Columbus’ arrest and his being shipped back to Spain in chains.

Here is some of the testimony de Bobadilla collected that led to Columbus’ arrest:

A man named Luquitas stole food because he was starving. Columbus ordered him hanged. When the people begged, Columbus instead had his nose and ears cut off, exiled him, and put a shackle on his foot.
Columbus flogged a naked woman on a donkey because she said she was pregnant and she wasn’t.
He hanged a man for saying “Long live the king.”
He hanged a notary for documenting what was happening.
He starved his own colony and profited from it.

Columbus wasn’t a hero. He was just a guy who took a long boat ride, then hurt and killed a lot of people. His real legacy is that he opened the door to colonization, and Spain walked right through it, all the way to Texas.

Spain and imperialism.

Spain didn’t stay confined to the Caribbean Islands that Columbus landed on. They conquered Mexico. They massacred thousands in Peru. They forced Indigenous people into slavery in silver mines in Bolivia.

Later, historians would call this “The Great Dying.” Over the first 100 years after European arrival, the indigenous population of the Americas dropped from 60 million to 6 million. They killed 10% of the world’s population through disease, warfare, and famine. And scientists have now determined that there were so many deaths that it led to a drop in CO2 in the atmosphere and cooled the Earth.

Spain to Texas.

Spanish slave-raiding expeditions began in Texas in the late 1500s, launched out of the frontier province of Nuevo León. In 1663, more than a hundred men from Saltillo and Monterrey rode north into Native lands, motivated in part by the desire to capture Indians to work in the mines. Even a Spanish official warned that one colonization scheme’s real purpose was to enslave the people who had already escaped Nuevo León.

Spain didn’t actually settle Texas until France showed up. In 1685, La Salle planted a colony on Matagorda Bay. Spain’s answer was missions and presidios, built to secure Texas against the French. The missions packed people together, and disease did the rest. In 1739, smallpox and measles swept through all five San Antonio missions. At Mission Concepción, the population was cut in half. The missions aimed to destroy every aspect of native culture.

Stephen F. Austin.

After Spain granted Moses Austin a commission to settle families in Texas, he died. So, it was taken up by his son, Stephen F. Austin, who settled the land with the first 300 families of Texas.

While Austin’s first contact with the Karankawa was peaceful, he later wrote in his journal that the Karankawa “may be called universal enemies to men” and that there would be “no way of subduing them but extermination.”

In February 1823, after Coco Karankawa killed two colonists, the colonists attacked a Karankawa village on Skull Creek, killing 19, before the rest of the villagers fled. The colonists stole their possessions and burned the village to the ground. This was later known as the Skull Creek massacre.

By August 1823, the Texas Rangers were formed when Austin offered ten men $15 a month to defend against “hostile Indians.”

In 1824, Austin assembled 90 men and led an expedition into Karankawa territory. The frightened Karankawa took refuge at the old La Bahía mission, where a priest stepped in to prevent bloodshed. The Karankawa agreed to remain west of the Lavaca River, opposite the settlers’ lands.

Mirabeau Lamar.

I strongly dislike this mofo. And so far, as far as I know, Dallas has been the only city with the spine to rename “Lamar Street” to “Botham Jean Parkway.” In the city I live, there is still a Lamar Street and a Lamar High School. But let’s talk about why he was awful, and why streets and schools SHOULD NOT be named after him.

The Cherokee had been living north of the San Antonio Road since 1819, and the Mexican government let them stay. In December 1835, Texas sent Sam Houston and John Forbes to negotiate with them, and they signed a treaty on February 23, 1836.

But Texas broke that treaty.

Texas President Mirabeau Lamar told the Texas Congress, “The white man and the red man cannot dwell in harmony together.” Kind of like when Trump said, “Immigrants were poisoning the blood of our country.” Funny how history rhymes.

Lamar called for an “extermination war” to expel the Cherokee.

In 1839, about 500 troops marched on the Cherokee to force them out. This was known as the Battle of Neches. About 100 Indigenous people were killed. The rest were forced to flee Texas to Oklahoma.

Lamar is remembered as the “Father of Texas Education,” and a university is named after him. Lamar University. A man who called for an “extermination war.”

John Baylor.

In 1854, the Texas Legislature set aside land for Indian reservations. Indigenous Americans gave up the nomadic life and took up farming in these lands.

John Baylor was appointed Indian agent to the Comanches in 1855, but was dismissed in 1857 after feuding with his supervisor. After that, he spoke at mass meetings, became the editor of a paper known as The White Man, and organized a vigilante force of 1,000 men.

And in 1859, he showed up at the reservations with his vigilante army, threatening to attack. The only way to keep the Indigenous population safe was for them to flee to Oklahoma, and that’s exactly what they did.

Land back.

When Texas emptied the Brazos Reservation in 1859, it reverted to the state and was opened to Texas citizens in 1873. That’s Texas history in one sentence. Take the land, remove the people, hand it to white settlers, then put up a historical marker about it.

Land Back is the movement to undo some of that, and it turns six today. NDN Collective launched the LANDBACK campaign on Indigenous Peoples’ Day 2020. The campaign is focused on returning public lands. In its own words, “Ain’t nobody coming for your house.”

This isn’t radical. Richard Nixon returned 48,000 acres to Taos Pueblo in 1970. In 2020, Donald Trump signed the law that started returning the National Bison Range to the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes. Mango Mussolini did Land Back. Look it up.

Texas has its own unpaid bill. In 2000, the US Court of Federal Claims ruled that the federal government knowingly failed to protect 2.85 million acres of the Alabama-Coushatta Tribe’s land in East Texas. In 2002, the court recommended Congress pay the tribe $270.6 million. Most of that was for oil, gas, and timber taken off their land. Congress never paid it.

The tribe still claims roughly 400,000 acres covering the Davy Crockett and Sam Houston National Forests and the Big Thicket National Preserve. Those are public lands. Tribal leaders have said they have no interest in displacing private landowners. They’re asking for what a federal court already said they’re owed.

Columbus never set foot in Texas. Austin wrote that the Karankawa had to be exterminated. Lamar called for an exterminating war. Baylor ran a newspaper called The White Man. Texas named its capital after one of them and a university after another. The courts already did the math. All that’s left is to pay the bill.

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22 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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What A Blue Wave Looks Like In Texas, Day By Day

Michelle H. Davis — Sat, 10 Oct 2026 18:48:43 GMT

Note: After today, I only have space for seven more Meet the Candidate articles. If you haven’t seen your favorite candidate yet, have them reach out directly to schedule. Otherwise, I don’t have anyone else lined up right now.

It’s time for us to talk numbers. As early voting starts rolling in a week from Monday, we’ll all be on the edge of our seats. What do the Day 1 numbers mean? What about Day 2? Texas doesn’t register by party, so what signs should we look for to see whether Democrats are performing well?

We have a baseline.

I looked back at every midterm election for the last 20 years, and the highest turnout Republicans have ever seen is 4.6 million, and the highest turnout Democrats have ever seen is 4.05 million. Both of those happened in 2018. That’s the ceiling.

That’s why not only I, but most data people and strategists, believe Democrats need a turnout of 5,000,000 to flip the state.

Republicans are expecting a depressed turnout this year, so here are their previous turnouts in the last several midterms:

2022: 4.4 million
2018: 4.6 million

So, what would a depressed turnout year look like for the GOP? 4.2 million. Maybe less.

I’m doing some guessing here, but as I go through and explain, it will make more sense why.

The total turnout for both Democrats and Republicans:

2022: 8.1 million
2018: 8.4 million

And if we see an enthusiastic Democratic vote and a depressed Republican vote in 2026, with my estimated numbers above ⬆️, it would be 9.4 million.

What should we look for on Day 1 of EV, Day 2, and so on?

If this wave scenario- the one that the national news and state Democrats have been talking about all year long- actually comes to fruition, what numbers (at a high level) should we all be watching each day?

In the top 30ish counties, especially the blue ones, each day’s early voting (EV) total should be about 25% higher than the daily EV turnout in 2022. That percentage will likely be higher in blue counties and drop the redder a county is.

Of course, I’ll report the numbers as they come in each day, but I’m also sharing the 2022 EV numbers in a Google Doc if you want to follow along.

Here’s the second number to watch. The 30 largest counties cast about 80% of the state’s early vote. Twelve of them went for Biden in 2020: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, Tarrant, El Paso, Fort Bend, Williamson, Hidalgo, Cameron, Hays, and Webb. Each night, add up the early votes in those 12 and divide by the early votes in all 30. That’s the blue share.

If it’s 69% or higher and climbing, we’re almost certainly in a wave. If it sits at 67–68%, it’s an ordinary midterm. Below 67%, Republicans aren’t nearly as depressed as everyone hopes.

Here’s what that looked like before:

Of course, all of it only matters if they were working all along.

How do we tell if they were working? Well, money is one way.

These are the Texas Senate and Texas House seats where Democrats have a real shot at a flip.

If the early vote numbers above start looking like 2018, these races will tip first. We now have the latest fundraising numbers, which we last talked about in July.

Here’s what the Democrats in the seats to watch have raised this cycle, through September 24, next to the Republican they’re running against:

HD118: Kristian Carranza $873K vs. Jorge Borrego $738K
HD112: Zach Herbert $596K vs. Angie Chen Button $1.89M
HD133: Josh Wallenstein $550K vs. Mano DeAyala $1.04M
HD52: Chris Jimenez $489K vs. Caroline Harris Davila $975K
HD94: Katie O’Brien Duzan $421K vs. Cheryl Bean $796K
HD138: Tyler Smith $386K vs. Lacey Hull $986K
HD121: Zack Dunn $351K vs. Marc LaHood $3.10M
HD108: Allison Mitchell $301K vs. Morgan Meyer $1.79M
HD34: Stephanie Guerrero Sáenz $246K vs. Denise Villalobos $992K
HD37: Ozzie Ochoa $154K vs. Janie Lopez $1.50M
HD61: Brittany Black $110K vs. Keresa Richardson $1.09M
HD67: Jordan Wheatley $88K vs. Jeff Leach $1.86M
HD63: Denise Wooten $87K vs. Ben Bumgarner $618K
HD31: JJ Dominguez $79K vs. Ryan Guillen $450K
HD55: Amelia Rabroker $79K vs. Hillary Hickland $391K

Two of these Democrats have more cash in the bank than their Republican counterparts. Carranza has $384K to Borrego’s $23K. O’Brien Duzan has $139K to Bean’s $90K, and Bean owes $155K in loans.

The rest are getting outspent, some of them badly. Leach has raised 21 times what Wheatley has. Lopez has outraised Ochoa 10 to 1 in a district that leans Democratic.

The DLCC’s Golden 12 had raised $1.94 million in July. Now it’s $4.57 million. They raised more in three months than in the 18 months before that.

Other Democrats are also pulling in numbers higher than in previous sessions. Overall, it’s a big year for Texas Democrats, and across the board, they’re pulling in more donations than ever before.

On the Senate side, Taylor Rehmet has pulled in $1.4 million this cycle, and we should expect him to hold on to this seat. He flipped this district blue. And that could mean a lot for the overlapping down-ballot races in Tarrant County.

I’m concerned about the fundraising numbers from the other Senate candidates who are polling better (allegedly) than their Republican counterparts. Their money situation is bad enough that it really isn’t worth talking about, but we may be seeing a test case for how much money really matters.

The numbers say a wave is possible. The money says Democrats are better funded than ever, and the ground game says some of these candidates are going to outwork their bank accounts.

None of it means a damn thing if you don’t vote.

Make a plan to vote.

Pick your day. Early voting runs Monday, October 19 through Friday, October 30. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, and polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Go early.
Find your vote center in the county. Check your county elections office or VoteTexas.gov for locations and hours.
Bring your ID. A Texas driver’s license, Texas personal ID card, Texas Election Identification Certificate, Texas handgun license, U.S. passport, U.S. military ID with photo, or U.S. citizenship certificate with photo.
Vote the whole ballot. Don’t stop at the top.
Bring somebody with you.

We have the numbers. Let’s go prove it.

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24 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

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Live with Dr. Letitia Plummer

Michelle H. Davis — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 18:37:13 GMT

Available for iOS and Android

Oil Men Write The Rules. You Pay The Bills.

Michelle H. Davis — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:28:57 GMT

Texas produces more CO2 emissions than any other state in America. Twice that of California. Triple that of states like Florida and Pennsylvania. And maybe that makes sense. Texas is the oil capital. We’re swimming in it. Shoot your shotgun off a few times in your backyard. It might come bubbling up, and you’re on the next wagon to Beverly Hills. Texas oil has made a lot of really rich men for well over a century.

So, when US Senate Democrats produce a report called “The Billion Dollar Deal: How the Fossil Fuel Industry Bought the Trump Administration, Cashed In, and Left Americans to Pay the Price,” you wonder:

How many Texas ties can I find?
How will the people be impacted?

The report came out on September 24, two weeks ago, but I just heard about it yesterday from a TikToker. Which is interesting, because I get a dozen emails a day from National Democrats asking for money. None of those emails mentioned this one. (I went back and looked.)

There was this press conference:

Outside of that, the Sierra Club and Climate Action Campaign released some statements, but mainstream media has otherwise been completely silent about this report.

This report is part of a larger Senate Democratic anti-corruption working group led by Leader Schumer and including Senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Alex Padilla (D-CA), and Andy Kim (D-NJ).

They’re focused on exposing all of Trump’s corruption, not just the ties to fossil fuels, but also including:

Pentagon Contracts
Crypto Ventures
The vanity projects
The foreign bribes

Schumer launched this initiative in July, 18 months into Trump’s second presidency.

Side note, before we get into this report. (Nuance.)

Except for Senator Merkley, all other Democrats in this “anti-corruption group,” including, and especially, Chuck Schumer, have a history of taking hundreds of thousands of dollars from AIPAC and the pro-Israel lobby.

And I want to be very clear on how I frame this, because this is about government corruption, Big Oil, the military-industrial complex, and climate change.

The last several years have fractured the Democratic Party over criticism of AIPAC regarding political corruption and campaign influence, centered on its substantial spending in US elections.

Taking AIPAC money is legal. So is almost everything Big Oil did in this report. That’s the problem.

Big Oil bought itself a government, and Texans are paying for it at the pump, on their power bills, and in the air we breathe. That story absolutely deserves to be told. We should know about that.

However, we have to see the hypocrisy of running an anti-corruption caucus with one hand while you cash checks with the other. The standard has to be the same for ExxonMobil and AIPAC.

One of the Big Oil donors Senate Democrats call out in their report is Paul Singer, an $8 million Trump donor running a hedge fund heavily invested in fossil fuels. He has also given $5.6 million to AIPAC-aligned super PACs since 2022.

So, while I praise Leader Schumer for producing such an important report, it’s hard to ignore that he’s working for the same donor class he claims to be calling out.

What does the report say?

It is 79 pages long, and if you get a chance to scroll through it, you should, but I’ll sum it up:

At an April 11, 2024, Mar-a-Lago dinner, Trump asked oil and gas executives for $1 billion in exchange for deregulation and tax breaks.

The report tallies about $201 million in traceable spending (direct donations, down-ballot giving, and issue ads), plus $19 million to the inaugural fund. Its own FEC analysis finds fossil-fuel-tied donors gave $410.5 million to the top ten Republican super PACs in 2023–24, more than six times the next sector.
A dozen-plus industry people were placed in the EPA, DOE, DOI, and DOJ.
The February 2026 rescission of the Endangerment Finding.
DOJ environmental enforcement down about 75%.
Email-requested pollution exemptions that the White House approved almost wholesale.
A sustained attack on wind and solar.
Higher power bills, about $580 billion in added fuel costs from killing tailpipe standards, health damages, and rising disaster and insurance costs.

The core of the argument is quid pro quo. The thing Trump is best known for. The first thing he was impeached for in his first term.

The Texas ties.

It’s oil. You knew we were going here.

Tim Dunn, who already owns dozens of far-right Republicans in the Texas government, gave about $5 million. The report quotes him at a 2023 America First Policy Institute event, saying he wants to be rid of the “CO2 as a pollutant” business. It frames the Endangerment Finding repeal as Trump obliging him.
Kelcey Warren, CEO of Energy Transfer, gave about $11 million to the campaign in Dallas. After the election, he and his company each gave another $12.5 million to MAGA Inc. His LNG project then got its permit extension.
Syed Javaid Anwar of Midland Energy, and longtime top donor to Greg Abbott, gave about $2 million.
A single fundraiser organized by Texas oil executives raised $40 million at $250,000 a ticket. At a Houston event, Trump joked about Harold Hamm being his “original oil guy.”
The inaugural donors (ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Occidental, Chevron, and Hilcorp) are largely headquartered in Houston.
Valero (San Antonio) is part of the refiner swing from a $1.2 billion loss to a $2.1 billion profit.
Citgo got exemptions for refineries in Texas and elsewhere that recently violated the Clean Air Act.
TotalEnergies was paid $928 million to surrender offshore wind leases and committed to reinvest in Texas LNG.
About 30 GW of private-land wind projects are stalled at the Pentagon, concentrated in Texas and other red states.
CenterPoint is passing $1.6–1.8 billion in storm costs to 2.8 million Houston-area customers over fifteen years.
The report uses the Texas grid as its main evidence that renewables cut prices.
Ted Cruz co-sponsored legislation to give the industry immunity from climate liability.
Harris County is suing the EPA over the Solar for All termination, with Senator Whitehouse filing an amicus brief.
The report cites a Texas Tribune piece on oil donations to Rep. August Pfluger (TX11).

Why does it even matter?

Did you see recent footage in Napal of the flash flooding after a glacier collapse?

1,300 people died.

Burning oil, gas, and coal pumps carbon dioxide and methane into the air, trapping heat and warming the Gulf. It’s melting the glaciers, raising sea levels, and causing more extreme weather.

The July 4th flooding in Kerr County, which killed more than 130 people, including 37 children, was caused by climate change.

Winter Storm Uri, which killed hundreds of Texans, was caused by climate change.

In 2024, the Office of the Texas State Climatologist for Texas A&M updated its report on Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas.

It’s going to keep getting hotter. And not just “Texas hot.” Like, “hot, hot.”
Urban flooding (Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio) will become more common. I would argue that’s already happening, especially in Houston.
Bye-bye to the coast. And bye-bye to all the property values there, while we’re at it.
Between the droughts and the fires, the Smokehouse Creek Fire will get dwarfed, and water will increasingly become the emergency.

And I wonder if enough people grasp that all of these events will kill people. That’s the biggest danger. Maybe your loved one will die. Maybe you will. Maybe me.

But somewhere in Midland, Tim Dunn is still trying to get rid of the “CO2 as a pollutant” business.

Further reading:

Inside climate news: Many People Aren’t Connecting the Dots Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather

The fixes that the Senate Democrats propose.

At the end of their report, the Senate Democrats proposed five items, none of which I think are sufficient. But I guess it’s a start.

Pass the DISCLOSE Act, which would require dark money groups to name their donors. It’s just a band-aid, but we need to end Citizens United.
Tax Big Oil’s windfall profits. Fine, but why are prices spiking in the first place? And why are we still dependent on a system that kills millions of people every year?
Make polluters pay for their emissions.
Let people sue.
End fossil fuel subsidies.

Making them pay and taking away their money doesn’t build anything. That doesn’t build us a grid or train a workforce. Or protect people from losing their jobs. And their fixes didn’t address the dozen-plus industry people placed inside the EPA, DOE, DOI, and DOJ. Why not propose a ban for them?

It’s a good list, but it’s timid, and the fact that they’re proposing the DISCLOSE Act five weeks out from an election says a lot.

27 days left.

I’m not going to tell you that voting against Republicans will save the planet. You just watched six Senate Democrats hand you a timid list five weeks before an election, and most of them cash checks from the same donor class they’re calling out. Voting isn’t the finish line. It’s the floor.

But the other side is tearing up the floor.

The Republicans on your ballot have a plan. The Endangerment Finding is gone. Enforcement is down 75 percent. Refineries with Clean Air Act violations got exemptions by email.

Vote them out. Then hold the people you vote in to a higher standard than they hold themselves. Demand a Green New Deal. Demand they ban the revolving door. A Democratic Senate that passes the DISCLOSE Act is a start.

Texas oil made a lot of rich men. It’s time it stopped making our government.

Tim Dunn already voted. With his checkbook.

Your turn. Early voting runs October 19-30.

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27 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.

The Texas GOP Already Knows It's Losing

Michelle H. Davis — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 18:42:00 GMT

In 29 days, every piece on the chessboard changes. Republicans know what’s coming. Perhaps that’s why that drunk, racist guy in charge of our military has cut 20% of the military generals. He’s also appointed a fascist oligarch who has repeatedly discussed civil war in America to lead an AI war commission. You know, last year the Pentagon ordered states’ National Guards to form a ‘quick reaction task force’ and train for crowd control (i.e., riots).

Before the Republicans’ loss in 2020, they spent almost a year talking about “stop the steal,” convincing their QAnon-brainwashed base that Communists had infiltrated our country and they had to fight to save America. That’s how January 6 happened. But even the GOP knows they can’t convince enough dummies to pull off another January 6.

On the far corners of the internet, concerns that the next time Trump tries to stay in there, it will be through a military coup, with the help of Pete Hegseth and Elon Musk. But don’t get scared. That won’t happen in 2026. We have to worry about 2028.

But Democrats will win big in 2026. In Texas, we’re going to win big.

Hopefully, the new Democratic majority will impeach Hegseth and get Musk out of our government.

And now everything is going to come at us really fast. If you’re new here since the last election, I’ll bring you daily early-election totals during early voting, along with various reports I see from data agencies. We’ll see how well the Secretary of State does on reporting this year. It sucked in the primaries.

I’ve been playing with midterm numbers, and before early voting starts, I plan to share more data over the next few weeks.

Since we missed last year, we have a special Halloween episode this year (which I’m excited about).

And before we know it, the Legislature will be in session.

For two decades, Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks have been building their golden calf out of the Texas GOP.

Now one of their mouthpieces is begging voters to point their fingers at anyone but the fascists in the mirror.

Everything wrong in Texas is absolutely because of the far-right arm of the Republican Party, which includes Luke Macias, which includes the Defend Liberty PAC, which includes the Texas Scorecard, which includes Empower Texans. And all of those are basically the same thing.

It’s rich now that the mouthpiece of this operation that brought you such hits as Bryan Slaton and Nick Fuentes in their Ft. Worth offices thinks it’s everyone else’s fault.

So, we’re going to talk about how it’s this organization’s fault. Their 20-year grip on government here, and why once they lose, campaign finance reform in Texas needs to take priority.

What did Macias say?

He encouraged everyone to vote on the first day of early voting. And if you want to do that, more power to you. I get the excitement. But everyone is excited, and unless you are at risk of forgetting or getting too busy, I would wait until the end of the first week or the second week. That’s when I always vote. It’s a lot shorter lines.

Then he said what every pollster, analyst, and talking head has been saying for months. “Democrats have more energy, and Republicans are discouraged.”

And perhaps Independents will swing blue, but he never talked about those, and maybe he, like I, always assumed Independents were just Republicans who were too embarrassed to say so. Or perhaps the Hispanic vote is truly an Independent/swing vote this year.

Macias talked about the cost of living and gas prices hurting people. He caught himself blaming the Iran war, then called it an “oversimplification.”

Remember in 2024, when 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists warned that Trump’s economic plans could reignite inflation?

But what Macias conveniently leaves off the table is that the costs that make Texas worse than other states come from decisions the Texas Legislature made, mostly under pressure from his own network.

Texas has the highest uninsured rate in the country at 16.7%.

When the Legislature killed Medicaid expansion in 2013, Texas Republicans were afraid of a Tea Party primary challenge if they even said “health care” on the House floor. That was the Empower Texans era.

Texas had the fourth-highest home insurance premiums in the nation at the end of 2025. Premiums rose 21.1% in 2023 and 18.7% in 2024.
Between 2022 and 2023, the increase was the largest of any state.
Nearly 18% of Texas homeowners went without insurance in 2024.

Efforts to strengthen regulatory oversight have stalled, with the insurance industry warning it could pull coverage. One-party Republican rule in Texas has played well for the right and big business.

Texas has the ninth-highest effective property tax rate in the nation.
We have the seventh most regressive tax system in the country. The poorest fifth pays 12.8%
Poor Texans pay more taxes than any income group in California. Rich Texans pay 1/3 the rate of the poor.

Tim Dunn and his Christian Nationalism arm, Empower Texan/Texas Scorecard/Defend Texas Liberty PAC, have been the largest source of money to buy legislators and their votes for years.

Luke Macias has long fallen under this umbrella, as an author for Texas Scorecard and the president of Defend Texas Liberty.

If you aren’t as intimately familiar with Texas politics, or don’t know about the fascist right who has had their sticky little hands all over our government for the last decade or more, there are three particular billionaires you should be familiar with:

Those are their contributions since 2015 to Transparency USA, and they don’t include the money they’ve spent in county, city, or federal elections. Also, “David Middleton,” also known as “MAGA Mayes,” is a candidate, so his reads differently, but he’s spent plenty of money on Christian Nationalist candidates, other than himself.

It should be noted that these are not the only Christian Nationalist billionaires who have taken control of the Texas government and the Republican Party of Texas over the last many years. They are just the most well-funded and prominent.

Empower Texans ➡️ Texas Scorecard ➡️ Texans United for a Conservative Majority: A Timeline.

2007: Midland oilman Tim Dunn launches Empower Texans to fight a tax on investor-financed oil wells. The first cause of the group that would spend 15 years lecturing Texans about fiscal responsibility was one oilman’s own taxes.

2010: Dunn and fellow fracking billionaire Farris Wilks ride the Tea Party wave and start bankrolling primary challengers. The weapon is the “Fiscal Responsibility Index,” published by the outlet now called Texas Scorecard. Score low, and a challenger shows up in your district with a lot of oil money.

This scorecard births loyalists like Deer Park’s Briscoe Cain, who spent his entire career voting “no” on everything, even if it hurt his constituents, to keep his scorecard grade high.

2010: According to former House Speaker Joe Straus, Dunn told him only Christians should hold leadership positions in the Texas House. He also wanted committee chairs handed to Empower Texans’ Tea Party picks.

Texas Scorecard, home of Luke Macias’s show, is what ProPublica calls Empower Texans’ “media arm.” Dunn sits on the board of the foundation that publishes it. The outlet grades Republicans, the PAC funds challengers against the low scorers, and the columnists write up the traitors.

2013: The Legislature turns down an estimated $100 billion over 10 years to expand Medicaid. Republican Rep. John Zerwas tried a compromise, then explained on NPR that it died because he’d have to run again in two years and Texas Republicans feared a primary. Fear of the machine kept 1.5 million Texans uninsured.

2014: The Texas Ethics Commission fined Michael Quinn Sullivan $10,000, then head of Empower Texans, for failing to register as a lobbyist in 2010 and 2011. The commission found he used the scorecard to influence lawmakers’ votes. Sullivan insists it was journalism. He spent the next 11 years suing and lost at every level up to the US Supreme Court, which declined his case in 2025.

2014: Ken Paxton wins attorney general. The Texas Observer reports he owes his seat to a $1 million loan to his 2014 campaign. Dunn and Wilks become his biggest donors. When Sullivan sues the Ethics Commission, the state’s lawyer is Paxton, who takes a hands-off approach that costs the commission more than $1 million in outside legal fees. Texas taxpayers paid to defend the state’s ethics law because the attorney general wouldn’t do it against his own donors.

2016: Empower Texans and the Wilks family bankroll Straus’ critics in the House. Jonathan Stickland, Arlington’s Tony Tinderholt, Molly White, and Matt Rinaldi, who took $25,000 from the Wilks family. Yes, that Stickland, who would later host Nick Fuentes, and that Rinaldi, who was seen outside the building.

2019: Sullivan reveals he secretly recorded a meeting with House Speaker Dennis Bonnen and Rep. Dustin Burrows. On the tape, Bonnen tells Sullivan, “I’ll put your guys on the floor next session,” meaning House media credentials for Texas Scorecard, if Empower Texans went after 10 GOP incumbents in the 2020 primaries. Two lawmakers who heard it said a list was referenced “over and over and over again.” Bonnen’s speakership doesn’t survive it. Republican House leadership tried to make a deal with the machine, and the machine taped them doing it. Burrows is now Speaker.

2022: Empower Texans gives way to Defend Texas Liberty PAC. Dunn pours in at least $9.85 million, and Texas Monthly crowns him the state’s largest individual source of campaign money. The PAC spends it hunting Republicans it considers insufficiently conservative.

May 2023: The Texas House votes unanimously to expel Bryan Slaton after an investigation finds he had sex with a 19-year-old aide after giving her alcohol. Slaton was a darling of the far-right wing and Defend Texas Liberty PAC’s personal champion.

May 2023: The House impeaches Ken Paxton. Defend Texas Liberty puts up billboards in Glenn Rogers’ district attacking his vote, and Macias, then the PAC’s director, warns that billboards could go up across the entire state.

Summer 2023: Defend Texas Liberty gives Dan Patrick $3 million in donations and loans while he’s preparing to preside over Paxton’s impeachment trial. It was a bribe.

September 2023: The Senate acquits Paxton. Macias promises more primary challengers against House Republicans than he’s seen since 2006.

October 2023: Defend Texas Liberty president Jonathan Stickland hosts white supremacist Nick Fuentes for nearly seven hours at his firm’s offices. Texas GOP chair Matt Rinaldi is seen outside the building. He denies meeting Fuentes. Stickland’s name then vanishes from the PAC’s website, and Luke Macias becomes the new president. Speaker Dade Phelan and 60 House Republicans demand the Texas GOP cut ties. The party machine shrugs.

December 2023: Defend Texas Liberty goes quiet, and a brand-new PAC appears: Texans United for a Conservative Majority, with $2 million from Dunn and Wilks. It immediately starts spending against House Republicans.

March 2024: Nine GOP incumbents lose their primaries to hardline challengers. Eight more are forced into runoffs, mostly against candidates backed by Dunn’s network.

So, who does Luke Macias blame?

At first, he says “nobody.” Then, he spends 20 minutes naming names.

John Cornyn, for spending more time attacking Republicans.

Karl Rove, whom Macias says is calling people to oppose Ken Paxton and Bo French.

Glenn Rogers, the former Republican lawmaker who cut an ad for a pro-Talarico super PAC.

And the “blackpilled” online crowd who won’t vote because, in Macias’s words, “we didn’t deport 50 million people.”

Of course, he never blames Ken Paxton. Or Tim Dunn. Nor the PAC that controlled the Republican Legislature and also hosted white supremacists in its office. And he certainly never mentioned the orange one.

Macias closes every show with “May God bless Texas,” so he’ll know this one:

“And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?” (Matthew 7:3)

Of course, he would have to read it first. And that was by far the funniest part about Macias’ video. He recommended two separate books, admitted he’d never read either because “he isn’t a book guy,” but said he was recommending them based on the title alone.

You know, I met the Texas Scorecard people once, back in 2022, and they stuck me on the front page.

I still laugh about it. But my feelings haven’t changed.

In February 2021, the grid Republicans have run for two decades collapsed during Winter Storm Uri. The state’s own health department counted 246 dead across 77 counties.

In August 2023, while ERCOT begged Texans to turn up their thermostats during a record heat wave, it paid bitcoin miner Riot Platforms $31.7 million in power credits for one month.

Texas skipped the federal Summer EBT program in 2024, leaving $450 million on the table for 3.8 million eligible kids. In 2025, the Legislature put $60 million in the budget to finally join, and Greg Abbott line-item vetoed it.

Empower Texas/Texas Scorecard/Texans United for a Conservative Majority have spent almost two decades pushing extremists into our government, and millions of people in Texas have suffered because of it.

When Democrats flip the Texas House, the only way to shut them out is campaign finance reform.

I wrote about this in more detail in 2024, if you want to check it out, but just know that whoever wins this election, at the state and federal level, it has to be a priority.

So, Luke, you asked who we’re planning to blame if things don’t go your way in 29 days.

We already know. We’ve known for 20 years.

We blame the two oilmen who turned the Texas Legislature into a subscription service. We blame the scorecard that taught Republicans to fear a primary more than a hungry kid. We blame the PAC that changed its name three times and never once changed its checkbook. And we blame the guy who took over that PAC after it hosted a white supremacist, then went on his podcast to lecture everyone else about pointing fingers.

But beating them in November isn’t enough. Empower Texans got spanked in 2018 and came back with a new name and a bigger checkbook. Defend Texas Liberty got caught with Nick Fuentes and came back with a new name and a bigger checkbook. As long as two men can write $9.85 million checks and call it democracy, the machine just waits for the next primary.

So vote. Bring someone with you. And when the new Legislature gavels in, campaign finance reform HAS TO come first.

Luke told his listeners not to blame anyone. Just get to work.

For once, we agree. And we’ll get to work.

Subscribe now

29 days until the November election!
Last Day to Register to Vote: October 5, 2026
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

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Meet The Candidates: Jason Pearce For Texas Congressional District 4

Michelle H. Davis — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 21:58:54 GMT

This series is called Meet the Candidates. Over the next month, I’ll spotlight a handful of Democratic races, mainly in the Legislature and Congress. These aren’t endorsements. They’re introductions, a way to understand who’s running, the districts they hope to represent, and what’s at stake for people across Texas.

Who is Jason Pearce?

Jason Pearce is a Plano kid who started working as a child and spent years stacking jobs, often two at a time, often eighty hours a week, just to keep the lights on. According to his campaign, he became a top national performer in the mortgage industry, passed his federal licensing exam on the first try, and went on to train others. Then came finance and insurance, with every licensing exam again passed on the first attempt. After years of that grind, he paid off his debt and started saving for a house.

Then November 2024 happened.

Pearce says he watched his neighbors struggle while politicians bickered and did nothing. So he quit his job, gave up his benefits, and put his own savings on the line to run for Congress.

His platform is unmistakably Texas progressive. Medicare for All. Housing as a human right. Expand Social Security, don’t cut it. Clean water, clean air, and corporations that answer for poisoning either. He calls endless war “a policy choice” and says both parties have protected the donor class. Pearce is a full-throated progressive running in North Texas, and he isn’t apologizing for it.

The district.

Gerrymandering is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this district. Two-thirds of the district is in Collin County, with a tiny sliver in Denton County. Then one-third of the district covers all of Grayson, Fannin, Lamar, Red River, and part of Bowie Counties.

The VAP (voting-age population) of this district:

This is interesting for a few reasons. This may be the only district in Texas where Asian adults outnumber Hispanic adults. But much of the Anglo population in this district comes from rural counties along the Red River, which have long had a history of Conservatism. Spanish-surname voters in this district are just 6.1% of registered voters.

The composite partisan lean is 60.5% Republican, 37.5% Democratic. That’s a 23-point gap.

The Hispanic vote won’t flip TX04. There was a huge midterm drop-off here in 2022. Pearce should be targeting those voters first and foremost. Two-thirds of the district lives in Collin and Denton. That’s where the margin gets built.

Nobody is flipping those northern counties, but shaving points off the margin will matter in the long run.

We need to see a real wave this year. Closing a 23-point margin means roughly one in nine voters crossing over or a turnout gap the size of a small city. Taylor Rehmet’s +30 swing in SD09 says that’s possible in this environment. But possible doesn’t mean it’s promised.

Pearce needs suburban turnout, Asian American voters, and a midterm electorate that looks a lot more like November 2024 than November 2022.

The incumbent.

Massachusetts-native and spotlight-hanger-oner Pat Fallon has benefited from the Republicans’ gerrymandering almost more than any other carpetbagger in Texas. From the State House to the State Senate, now in Congress. He’s fought hard for the starving children in Texas by making sure state employees won’t be ostracized for saying “Merry Christmas.”

Actually, he opposed feeding hungry children breakfast, even though hunger impacts 1 out of every 4 children in Texas. Fallon’s estimated net worth is $14.2 million.

On January 6, 2021, Fallon, along with 147 fellow congressional Republicans, voted to block certification of the results of President-elect Joe Biden’s 2020 United States presidential election. Then took the picture you see above to pretend he was defending the Capitol from his own people.

In Jason Pearce’s own words.

Below are some questions I asked Pearce, based on previous reader polls, along with his answers.

Q: Do you support a Green New Deal or similar large-scale federal climate action plan?

Yes, climate change is a direct threat to all of us and must be addressed.

Q: Do you support universal, publicly funded healthcare?

Absolutely, healthcare is a human right in my opinion.

Q: Do you support ending qualified immunity and instituting federal police accountability standards?

I do. If you break the law, you should be held accountable regardless of position or power.

Q: Would you support major tax reform, including raising taxes on billionaires and large corporations?

Absolutely, I support an 80-90% tax rate. It would solve almost all of our problems as a country.

Q: Do you support ending U.S. military aid to countries with ongoing human rights abuses, including Israel and Egypt?

I support ending all aid to Israel and banning AIPAC from the country.

Q: Should Congress ban corporate PAC money and implement public campaign financing?

I completely support overturning Citizens United the second we can.

Q: Do you support DC statehood, Puerto Rico self-determination, and expanding voting rights through federal law?

Yes, I do.

Bonus Question: Who are your political role models, living or dead?

Lincoln, Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Zohran Mamdani.

Republicans drew TX04 so they’d never have to think about it.

A 23-point lead buys you an incumbent who can spend his time on Christmas greetings instead of children’s breakfasts.

Pearce is running as a guy who knows what an eighty-hour week feels like, with a platform that would send the donor class reaching for the smelling salts. Whether that plays in Sherman and Paris is an open question. Whether it can drag 2024 voters back to the polls in Collin County is the only question that matters.

Waves don’t flip districts. Voters do. If 2026 is the year Texas finally shows up for a midterm, TX04 is where we find out how far north the water rises.

You can learn more about Jason Pearce from his website, Facebook, Instagram, Bluesky, and TikTok.

Subscribe now

30 days until the November election!
Last Day to Register to Vote: October 5, 2026
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Or buy me a coffee.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.

Meet The Candidates: Josh Wallenstein For Texas House District 133

Michelle H. Davis — Sat, 03 Oct 2026 22:23:22 GMT

Who is Josh Wallenstein?

Josh Wallenstein is an anti-corruption attorney and runs his own Houston law firm. For the past two decades, he’s advised businesses and organizations on ethics and compliance. Wallenstein believes that families pay more and get less because special interests have too much pull in Austin.

He lost his father at a young age and was raised by a single mother. He credits his public schools, teachers, and mentors with getting him to Stanford Law School. “Public schools saved my life,” he says. “Every child deserves the same shot I had.”

Wallenstein wants Texas to invest in teachers and keep public education dollars in public education. He’s previously served on the HISD Capital Planning Steering Committee to help guide how Houston invests in schools.

The district.

Yeah, that’s I10 in Harris County, and HD133 is a district where the per capita income is $71,465. Nearly 22% of households make $200,000 or more, almost double the state rate. The average owner-occupied home is worth $797,657, and over half the owned homes here top half a million dollars.

It’s also one of Texas’ most educated districts. 65.2% of adults 25 and older hold at least a bachelor’s degree. Statewide, it’s 33.8%.

Nearly half of HD133 rents, and the average rent runs $1,713 a month. And 38.3% of renters spend 35% or more of their income on it. More than 40,000 residents moved in the past year. Over 19,000 people live in poverty.

Anglos make up 47.3% of residents, Hispanic Texans 19.8%, Black Texans 18.9%, and Asian Texans 13.2%, double the state share. More than a third of residents speak a language other than English at home.

From the Texas Legislative Council’s ACS profile, roughly a third of HD133 kids from preschool through 12th grade are in private school. Statewide, it’s about one in nine. That’s a district where vouchers sound pretty great to families already writing tuition checks. Wallenstein’s pitch is to the other two-thirds.

In 2024, Trump carried HD133 52.4% to 45.4%. Ted Cruz did worse. 50.6% to Colin Allred’s 47.1%. Republican incumbent Mano DeAyala had no opponent.

To flip this district, Wallenstein will have to move the difference in the Allred race, about 1,355 voters. He’ll also have to find ticket-splitters. Democratic judicial candidates ran as much as 6,447 votes behind Kamala Harris in this district. He’s got to get the voters to make it down-ballot.

Every district is different, and Spanish-surname voters are 9.3% of registered voters in HD133, compared with 24.7% statewide. If Hispanic Texans swing back toward Democrats, it won’t be enough for this district alone. The path runs through college-educated Anglo and Asian voters, and through the Republicans who already proved they’ll split a ticket.

This district is flippable, but it will take hard work and precise targeting.

The incumbent.

Republican incumbent Mano DeAyala has been against public education since the day he set foot in Austin. He voted for the vouchers. He voted against teacher pay.

His ties to vouchers began before he entered the legislature. He has served on the board of directors of Heritage Classical Academy, a private institution that has applied for authorization to open charter schools in Texas, and in 2022 he was endorsed by the Texas Home School Coalition, which supports using public funds for private and home schools.

DeAyala has made his mission in the Texas Legislature clear, destroy public schools and reroute tax dollars to the wealthy.

In Josh Wallenstein’s own words.

Below are some questions I asked Wallenstein, based on previous reader polls, along with his answers.

Q: Do you support a statewide minimum wage increase to at least $15/hour?

Yes. Texans who work full-time should be able to afford the basics. I support raising the minimum wage to at least $15 an hour.

Q: Do you oppose school vouchers and efforts to privatize public education?

Yes. I strongly oppose vouchers and efforts to divert public dollars into private schools. Our priority should be fully funding neighborhood public schools, paying educators what they deserve, and keeping decisions about our schools in the hands of local communities rather than politicians and wealthy special interests.

Q: Should higher education in Texas be free or debt-free at public institutions?

Cost should never be a barrier to education. Texas should pursue multiple pathways to reduce or forgive debt from public higher education, working with the federal government where necessary. At the same time, the state should expand investment in vocational training and apprenticeship programs that allow Texans to earn while they learn and enter good-paying careers without taking on significant student debt.

Q: Should Texas guarantee free school meals to all K–12 students, regardless of income?

Yes. No child should be expected to learn while hungry, and families should not have to navigate unnecessary bureaucracy just to make sure their children can eat at school. Universal school meals are a straightforward investment in students and families.

Q: Do you support closing or downsizing state prisons and redirecting that funding to community-based alternatives like mental health care, housing, and youth programs?

Yes, where we can safely reduce incarceration through proven alternatives. We should distinguish between people who pose a serious threat to public safety and people whose needs are better addressed through mental health treatment, addiction services, housing, diversion programs, or other community-based solutions. Investing earlier in people and communities can prevent crime while allowing law enforcement and corrections resources to focus on genuine public safety threats.

Q: Do you support automatic voter registration and same-day registration in Texas?

Yes. Voting is a constitutional right and should be easy, secure, and accessible to every eligible Texan. I support automatic voter registration and same-day registration with appropriate safeguards to verify eligibility and protect the integrity of our elections.

Bonus Question: How do you plan to engage and energize young and working-class voters?

We have to start by showing up and listening. I plan to meet young and working-class Texans where they are, in their neighborhoods, workplaces, campuses, community, and online, and talk about the issues affecting their daily lives: housing, wages, healthcare, insurance, education, and the rising cost of simply getting by. I speak Spanish and Portuguese, which can help break down linguistic and cultural barriers with many fellow constituents.

Nobody made Mano DeAyala explain a single vote in 2024.

He ran unopposed and went back to Austin to vote for vouchers. This year, someone is asking questions.

One candidate says public schools saved his life. The other sent all three of his sons through Spring Branch ISD, then voted to send $1 billion in public money to private schools and against a $6.5 billion teacher raise. One has spent two decades making powerful people follow the rules. The other was on the governor’s list of reliable voucher votes before SB 2 ever hit the floor.

Allred lost HD133 by 2,709 votes. Flip about 1,355 of them, and it’s a tie. The voters who already rejected Trump at the top of the ticket and then voted Republican or skipped the bottom of the ballot could decide this race on their own. So could the renters who moved last year and never updated their registration.

Texas is a low-turnout state. HD133 is where that gets tested.

The last day to register is Monday, October 5. Early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Election Day is November 3. Vote the whole ballot.

You can learn more about Josh Wallenstein on his website, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok.

Subscribe now

31 days until the November election!
Last Day to Register to Vote: October 5, 2026
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Or buy me a coffee.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.

Williamson County Is One Bad Midterm Away from Blue

Michelle H. Davis — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 19:35:22 GMT

Greg Abbott carried Williamson County (WilCo) in 2022 by 1,246 votes.

That was a year Democrats stayed home everywhere. Abbott won Texas by nearly 11 points, and Republicans had every wind at their backs. He still barely held Williamson.

Now it’s 2026, and the wind changed direction.

Williamson County has a habit Republicans should find alarming. It votes against whoever is sitting in the White House. In 2018, during Donald Trump’s first midterm, it went for Beto O’Rourke. In 2022, Biden’s midterm, it went for Abbott by a rounding error. Trump only won it back in 2024, by 7,544 votes, while suburban Texans still liked him.

They don’t like him anymore. Independents approve of his job at 19%.

In March, Williamson Democrats outvoted Republicans in the Senate primary by about 13,000. In 2018 they lost that same count by 10,000 and carried the county anyway. On primary day, the local GOP made voters stand in line for three hours at polling places it asked for. The county judge on the ballot, Steve Snell, has never won the job. He got it by appointment after Bill Gravell quit to work for Trump.

My bet is WilCo will go blue this year, and here’s why:

Williamson County has been teetering on a flip for several years, and poor Democratic turnout in 2022 and 2024 likely kept it in the red.

WilCo’s population growth has made it the 9th-fastest-growing county in the United States. Much of the boom is driven by people relocating from other states and out of neighboring Travis County, seeking relative housing affordability and open land. As a result, the population is diversifying, making WilCo a non-Anglo-majority county.

Look at the difference that eight years have made. This is the turnout in the Republican and Democratic primaries in 2018 and 2026. (And remember, Beto won the 2018 general in this county.)

In 2018, Democrats were outvoted by 10,000 in the primary and still carried the county in November. This year they won the primary by about 13,000.

Michelle Evans, the GOP Chair of WilCo, told Axios that “Primary turnout may reflect energy behind a specific race or candidate, but does not necessarily translate to general election turnout or down-ballot performance.”

But Evans is an embarrassment to every intelligent woman ever named Michelle, and let me tell you why. First, she made national headlines in 2022 after claiming cafeteria tables had to be lowered in public schools so that “furries can eat without utensils.” Then, in 2023, she faced criminal charges for taking pictures of women in the restroom. Then, all the mix-ups at the polling places in WilCo in the primaries this year? It was Evans doing. And just for shits and giggles, this genius’ online moniker is “ThinkerMichelle.” That’s just the tip of the iceberg.

On the ballot in Williamson County and likely to go blue.

James Talarico
Gina Hinojosa

Those two are a given. The top of the ticket in WilCo has flipped before, has proved flippable, and will flip again.

But here are some other races you should watch.

County Judge: Heather Jefts. When Trump snatched up Judge Bill Gravell, WilCo appointed Steve Snell as Judge because (as far as I can tell), he’s a husband and a dad who thinks Bill Gates was implanting microchips in people with COVID vaccines. Economy over people was the motto he lived by during the pandemic, and for that, WilCo named him a Judge.

On the other hand, Jefts is a small business owner, a former city council member, served six years on the Board of the Williamson County Children’s Advocacy Center, and is a co-founder and supporter of Reveal Baby Blessings diaper ministry, among many other achievements.

In 2022, Republicans only won the County Judge seat in Williamson by 2.6 points, in a year Democrats stayed home. This race is for sure one to watch.

Commissioner Precinct 4: Harmon Rhea. In 2022, this district came within 8.2 points of flipping. It leans Republican, but if we see a huge Democratic wave this year, this seat could also flip.

If Democrats can flip both the County Judge seat and the Commissioner Precinct 4 seat, the Commissioners Court flips from red to blue. That would be a pretty big deal. And maybe we’d finally have some allies on our side for removing the white supremacist statue on the Williamson County Courthouse steps.

Before I get into the rest of the races, I’d also like to note that Eric Hanke is on the ballot for tax assessor-collector in Williamson County. Hanke sang my favorite song in 2020, called “Turned Texas Blue.” Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a link to it today.

Moving up the ballot.

HD136: Representative John Bucy is safe.

HD20: Matthias Early. Early is the son of congressional candidate Justin Early. A father/son duo. This is a likely Republican district that Terry Wilson won by ~19 points in 2024 and ~19 points in 2022. The only thing in common between the two Democratic races in 22 and 24 is that both were underfunded, and both were years when Democrats stayed home.

While we aren’t expecting Democrats to stay home this year, 19 points is a huge swing, and the money and effort it would take to flip this district is substantial.

HD52: Chris Jimenez. This is a flippable district. The incumbent, Caroline Harris-Davila, was once the youngest member of the Texas House. Now she’s in her 30s. She married Lt. Governor Dan Patrick’s 50-year-old Chief of Staff. And now votes on all of Dan Patrick’s priorities.

Harris-Davila was already unpopular in her own district, as last election cycle I had Republicans emailing me, wanting me to publish her family drama, as they did the election cycle before that. There are a few Republican women whose peers always want to smear them. Harris-Davila is one of them. Honestly, I don’t know if that speaks more about her or the patriarchy.

Regardless. Democrats outvoted this race in the primary. And this seat only leans Republican, winning by 12 points in 2024 and 11 points in 2022, both when Democrats stayed home. Another race to watch.

TX31: Justin Early. We’ve talked about this race more than once. Early’s Meet the Candidate article. This district is flippable, for sure. Maybe. If there wasn’t a really popular leftist, whom I totally respect, but chose to run as a third party. That’s my fear about this district. The votes would have been there to take the district from the Republican incumbent, but they get split between Early and the Independent candidate.

The ironic thing is that I’ve been watching this race closely. Early’s campaign positions, which are objectively progressive in my book, aren’t that dissimilar from many of the Independent candidate’s positions. Progressives in Texas have worked diligently for years to push the Texas Democratic Party left, and wanting it to move left also means supporting the left-leaning candidates under its umbrella.

If Early flips this seat outright for Democrats and beats John Carter and the Independent, we’ll probably see a windfall for Democrats across the board. Watch this race election night.

Abbott won WilCo by 1,246 votes in the best Republican year Texas has seen in a decade.

That’s the cushion Republicans are defending in a Trump midterm, with a Democratic wave on the way.

The top of the ticket will flip. The real prize is the Commissioners Court. Win the county judge race and Precinct 4, and the court that runs one of the fastest-growing counties in Texas goes blue for the first time in a generation.

And in TX31, remember there are no runoffs in November. A split left will hand John Carter another term.

Williamson is close enough to flip on turnout alone. Vote like it.

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32 days until the November election!
Last Day to Register to Vote: October 5, 2026
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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How Texas Turned Voter Registration Into A Political Weapon

Michelle H. Davis — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 18:35:23 GMT

The deadline to register to vote in Texas is October 5. If you are not registered to vote by then, you will not be able to vote in this upcoming election.

Check if you are registered to vote HERE.

With everything Republicans have done this year, between the recent “oops” at DPS and new “voter roll cleaning” laws disguised as purges, it’s always a good idea to check your voter registration status in Texas anyway. I know some people who check their registration every week.

Texas is the hardest state in America to vote in.

Today, we blame Bettencourt, Paxton, Abbott, maybe even Perry and Rove, if you want to go back far enough. But in the Lone Star State, there’s a long history of white men changing laws to make voting harder.

Texas’ first real voter registration came in 1867.

The US Army ran it under the Reconstruction Acts, and it signed up thousands of freedmen. Every county got a Board of Registration. Nearly 40,000 Black Texans voted to hold the constitutional convention that followed.

When Democrats retook the state, voter registration was on their list of things to abolish. The Constitution of 1876, which Texas still operates under today, prohibited voter registration (Article 6, Section 4). Ironic, huh? It’s the same section you’ll find the “purity at the ballot box” line that Briscoe Cain got in trouble for in 2021.

Then came the real registration system. It was from the poll tax. You had to register to vote and pay poll taxes. Texans wrote it into the constitution in 1902, and it was Alexander Watkins Terrell’s legacy.

Confederate traitor and Texas lawmaker, Alexander W. Terrell spent his legislative career calling for the disfranchisement of Black Texans. He first filed a bill to make the poll tax a voting requirement in 1879, and it took him 24 years to see it enforced under his 1903 election law. After that, Texas had no separate voter registration. Paying the tax proved your age, citizenship, and residence, and the receipts became the list of qualified voters. The tax was due by January 31, nine months before a November election. That was Texas’s first statewide registration deadline.

When the poll tax started to look vulnerable, the Legislature bought insurance. In 1949, lawmakers asked voters to drop the poll tax requirement and, just in case, passed a general registration law that would take effect only if the poll tax was repealed. Voters kept the poll tax, 172,284 to 133,550. Texas wrote statewide voter registration as the poll tax’s backup.

When courts struck down the poll tax in 1966, the November 1966 amendment wrote annual registration straight into the constitution. Every voter had to re-register every year during a four-month window that closed nearly eight months before the general election. A federal court struck that down in 1971. Then in 1975 the Legislature passed SB300, which expired every voter registration in the state on March 1, 1976. Voters got a new application in the mail, and to keep voting, they had to return it by January 31. That was the same date the poll tax used to be due.

Today your application has to be in at least 30 days before the election, the strictest deadline federal law allows. Texas is one of only eight states without universally available online registration, and Republican state lawmakers have spent years resisting it.

Why do you have to register at all?

Federal law doesn’t make you. North Dakota doesn’t require formal voter registration. You show an ID with your name, address, and date of birth, and getting that ID requires proof of citizenship. Federal law only requires election officials in every state to verify each voter’s identity and eligibility, including citizenship, and to require registrants to provide a driver’s license number or the last four digits of their Social Security number. Everything else is a choice Texas makes.

For the 2026 election, 46 states and DC offer at least one of three modern options, online registration, same-day registration, or automatic registration. Texas offers none. Neither do Arkansas, Mississippi, or South Dakota.

It’s not like nobody tried. In 2011, the Texas House passed online voter registration with one vote against it. It died when a Senate committee never took it up. In 2015, 76 House members co-authored a similar bill, a majority of the chamber. It got killed after the Harris County clerk and tax assessor-collector, both Republicans at the time, rallied opposition by claiming it would invite fraud. In 2023, lawmakers filed 10 online registration bills, and Republicans didn’t give a single one a hearing, the fourth session in a row. In 2025, House Bill 311 finally got the first hearing in a decade. The hearing came after the bill’s deadline to become law.

Automatic voter registration would be simple. When you get or update a driver’s license, the agency electronically sends your information to election officials unless you opt out.

Twenty-four states and DC do it. Georgia started in 2016 under Republican Gov. Nathan Deal. Alaska adopted it by ballot measure. West Virginia has it. Five of the governors who adopted it were Republicans.

According to the Center for Election Innovation & Research, monthly new registrations jumped 78%. The active registration rate climbed 20 points, a full 10 points above the national average. Inactive records on the voter list fell from 14% to 5%. Corrections to voter records rose 520%, mostly address updates for people who moved.

Of course, registration isn’t turnout. But you can’t vote if you’re not on the list, and in a low-turnout state, organizing starts with getting people on the list.

Texas has already built most of the pipe. More than 6 million voters have registered through the DPS license portal since it launched in 2020, and DPS requires proof of citizenship and keeps copies on file. AVR would make that process automatic, electronic, and audited, instead of the batch system that lost a year’s worth of applications.

When Democrats flip the Texas House in November, we have to pressure them to pass automatic voter registration.

Yes, I’m saying “when.” I’m manifesting. Roll with me. But automatic voter registration isn’t the only thing that needs to happen to turn us from the worst voter turnout state to the best.

We need online registration.
Same-day registration.
Pre-registration at 16.
Undo SB1, the 2021 voter oppression law.
No-excuse mail-in voting.
Laws to protect voter rolls.
Restore voter rights to people on parole and probation.
End gerrymandering.

It won’t be easy to do all of it. As we talked about earlier this week, we’re unlikely to flip the Senate, and the Lt. Governor’s race is still a toss-up. But we’re closer than ever.

The best thing we have going for us right now is that, as much as Republicans are hated in 2026, think about how much that will be magnified in 2028. At the rate MAGA is headed, the Grand Old Party is headed toward extinction like the Whigs or the Federalists.

Check. Then Check Again.

Go HERE and check your registration. Then check your spouse’s. Your adult kids’. Your parents’. The college kid who swears they registered at orientation. Anybody in your house who moved this year, renewed a license online through DPS, or got one of those letters from the county. It takes one minute per person. Texas made registering hard on purpose. Checking is the easy part.

If you’re not on the list, don’t panic, and don’t wait. Print a voter registration application and hand-deliver it to your county voter registrar by Monday, October 5, or mail it with a postmark no later than October 5. Hand delivery is safer. You’ve read this far, so you know how Texas feels about paper.

If you moved, update your address by the same deadline.

If you registered through the DPS portal and you’re not showing up, you may be one of the thousands of Texans DPS never sent to their county. Call your county voter registrar now. State officials say anyone left off the rolls because of the DPS error can still cast a provisional ballot. Don’t let them turn you away without one.

Then vote. Early voting starts October 19. Election Day is November 3.

For 150 years, every law in this story was written by people counting on you to stay home. The poll tax, the white primary, the annual re-registration, the 30-day cutoff, the purges. Fewer voters, safer seats.

The Senate race is within the margin of error. Nearly 10 million registered Texans sat out the last midterm. Texas was never a red state. It’s a state where people don’t vote.

We don’t fix any of this with a better argument. We fix it by showing up in numbers they can’t purge, can’t gerrymander, and can’t explain away. November 3. Bring your whole house.

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34 days until the November election!
Last Day to Register to Vote: October 5, 2026
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Or buy me a coffee.

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Media Literacy Won't Save Us From Ted Cruz

Michelle H. Davis — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 02:41:36 GMT

As I started out today, I intended to write an article about how Texas Republicans are BIG FAT LIARS. All of these commercials on TV from the GOP are complete nonsense about transgender surgeries and raising taxes. I planned to explain why they are lies, how the Republican Legislature works, and who determines taxes in Texas, but then former Special Counsel Jack Smith testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

This is the quote I can’t stop thinking about:

“Our investigation developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in serious crimes against our nation. If asked whether to prosecute a former president today based on the same facts, I would do so regardless of whether that president was a Republican or a Democrat. The charges against President Trump were the result of the evidence. Grand juries in two separate districts reached this conclusion based on his actions as alleged in the indictments they returned. Rather than accept his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, President Trump engaged in a criminal scheme to overturn the results and prevent the lawful transfer of power.”

What happened after that was four hours of Senate Republicans lying and spewing conspiracy theories, while Democrats called Trump a criminal and the hearing a farce.

Republicans are liars. Whether it’s Ken Paxton or Greg Abbott making commercials about how the Texas government functions, or whether it is Republicans in the Senate trying to still run cover for Donald Trump, there’s no truth and no accountability anywhere.

Years ago, back in 2020, my friends were protesting Confederate statues in rural Texas, and Oath Keepers and 3%ers showed up, armed to the teeth, because liars on Facebook told them “Black Lives Matter was coming to burn down their town. Back then, I would ask candidates, “What do we do about the epidemic of misinformation?”

They told me a lot of things. They talked about media literacy and funding NPR and PBS, but that was about misinformation, not lies. Paxton and Abbott know how our state government works. They’re lying and counting on everyone else not to know, and for the most part, they don’t. And the Republicans in Congress know they violated their oaths of office, but it’s still an act for the camera, and it’s personal.

It’s personal for Ted Cruz.

On January 6, 2021, along with Ken Paxton, Julie Pickren, sixteen other Texas Congresspeople, and funded by a slew of Texas billionaires, Ted Cruz helped Donald Trump, the then-45th president, try to overturn an election in the United States of America.

Yet those in charge dragged their feet.

In May 2021, the House passed a bipartisan, 9/11-style commission to investigate the attack, with 35 Republicans voting yes. Senate Republicans killed it with a filibuster. Pelosi formed a select committee instead, and Republicans spent the next two years calling it partisan.

Then Merrick Garland took a bottom-up approach. Rioters first, ringleaders later. The FBI didn’t open an investigation into the fake electors scheme until April 2022, about 15 months after the attack. The Washington Post found that top officials worried about looking partisan. Garland didn’t appoint a special counsel until November 2022, after Trump announced he was running again.

Jack Smith indicted Trump in August 2023, and Judge Tanya Chutkan set trial for March 4, 2024. When Trump claimed immunity, Smith asked the Supreme Court to skip the appeals court and settle the question quickly. The Court said no. Then in February it took the case anyway, which froze the trial, and heard arguments in April. It ruled on July 1, the last day of its term. In Florida, Judge Aileen Cannon postponed the document trial indefinitely, then tossed it entirely.

Then Joe Biden. He bombed the June 27 debate and then spent three weeks insisting he’d fight on. The first Democrat in Congress to tell him to quit was Lloyd Doggett of Austin. Biden dropped out on July 21, 15 weeks before Election Day. We know how the rest of it went.

The bad guys won.

In history, historians later look back at a big event and decide this was the beginning of that event; this was the end. For example, the road to the Civil War began with John Brown’s Raid on Harpers Ferry and ended when Washington pulled federal troops out of the South in 1877. The insurrectionists went home, took back their statehouses, and wrote Jim Crow into law for most of the next century. Harpers Ferry lit the fuse. Everyone who came after decided it wasn’t their job to put it out.

When historians look back at our time, they won’t only ask about January 6. They’ll ask about the people who held power afterward. The senators who killed the commission. The attorney general who didn’t want to look partisan. The justices who took their sweet time. The president who wouldn’t let go.

And they’ll ask, “What the fuck were the people in charge doing?”

Where do we go from here?

Presumably Democrats win at the federal and state level in November, while Trump and Crew enrich themselves like Saudi Arabian royalty on the backs of American taxpayers; an unnecessary war in Iran, climate scientists are predicting 500K deaths from this year’s El Niño, beef prices are going up; diesel prices are going up, and mortgage rates just surpassed 7%.

But the world has the first trillionaire, corporate profit margins sit near their highest levels since the 1950s, and global billionaire wealth surged to over $18–$20 trillion.

One thing most of us can agree on is that corruption has to stop, that the 99% has paid for the 1% at the behest of our government for way too long.

So, how do we fix things?

Luckily, smart people (probably in tiny rooms) are already thinking about this very problem. And they have a few ideas:

Brennan Center - January 2026: Nine Solutions for Political Corruption
Pew - October 2024: 5 Ways to Rebuild Trust in Government
The Roosevelt Institute - October 2025: Building a More Effective, Responsive Government: Lessons Learned from the Biden-Harris Administration
The Bulwark - June 2026: After Trump: Proposals for a Post-Authoritarian America

Mostly, they agree that trust in our government has collapsed and that it didn’t start with the orange one. Roosevelt blames decades of bipartisan disinvestment. Brennan says old corruption problems have come roaring back. The Bulwark says Trump tore down guardrails built after Nixon. But they all agree there’s no returning to normal.

Andrew Johnson pardoned the Confederacy on Christmas Day 1868. Donald Trump pardoned roughly 1,500 people charged in the Capitol attack on his first day back, including people convicted of seditious conspiracy. Same move, 157 years apart.

So forget fixing everything. Fix the part where lying and abusing power cost nothing.

A constitutional amendment moving the pardon power to an independent board of judges and experts. No pardoning yourself, your relatives, or your own people. Career civil servants shouldn’t be fired for political reasons. The Senate can adopt a rule allowing secret ballots for impeachment votes. And yes, ban congressional stock trading too.

Back in 2020, I asked candidates what we do about the epidemic of misinformation. They told me media literacy and funding PBS. That’s a fine answer for confused people.

Liars aren’t confused. Ted Cruz isn’t confused. Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott aren’t confused. They’re betting nothing happens to them, because nothing ever has.

What do you do about liars? You make it cost something at the ballot box on November 3.

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35 days until the November election!
Last Day to Register to Vote: October 5, 2026
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Or buy me a coffee.

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Even Dan Patrick Can Count To 16

Michelle H. Davis — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 18:27:50 GMT

Note: I’ll only do ten more ‘Meet the Candidate’ articles this election cycle. I’ve either reached out or attempted to reach out to all Legislative and Congressional candidates. If you haven’t seen your candidate yet but want to, we may have missed connecting. Please ask them to reach out to me directly. This series ends November 1.

With only 36 days until November 3, and with everything happening in the world, I’m not going to pretend any of us are okay. I know that you’re tired. We’re all tired. Some days it feels like the whole thing is on fire and we’re standing there holding a Dixie cup of water. But maybe there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.

Saturday, the MSNow event happened in Arlington, and the room was electric. Sunday, Gina Hinojosa took the stage in Arlington fighting a cold. She gave one of the best rallies I’ve attended this cycle. I woke up this Monday morning believing that the future in Texas could be a lot brighter. Of course, we have to flip the state first.

Last week, at TribFest in Austin, we heard from both sides of the aisle about whether the Texas House would flip. Minority leader Representative Gene Wu (D-HD137) said he believed Democrats would flip the Texas House. On the other side, Republican Mitch Little (HD65) said he thought the GOP would maintain control, but he did couple that with urging Paxton to debate Talarico.

Paxton is at a disadvantage in this debate arena. If he doesn’t debate Talarico, he looks like a coward and loses points. If he does debate Talarico, the world will see how awful he is, and he’ll probably lose twice as many points. I would expect a debate NOT to happen.

I happen to agree with Wu on this. We can flip the House. BUT WE HAVE TO SHOW UP. Which 14? Take your pick. There is lots of low-hanging fruit:

But conversations we really haven’t had much of this year are about the Texas Senate.

What about the Texas Senate?

According to the Quorum Report, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick told supporters gathered for a fundraiser upstairs at the Austin Club last week that two of his GOP senators are in tough races and his candidate in Tarrant County is trailing the Democrat.

Senator Charles Schwertner (SD05) leads his race by only 1 point.
Candidate Leigh Wambsganss (SD09) is down 5 points.
Senator Bob Hall (SD02) is down 2 points.
Dennis Paul’s (SD11) race is competitive.

Going into the election, the Senate makeup is 19(R)/12(D). That includes Taylor Rehmet (SD09). Let’s get this out of the way. I expect Rehmet to win re-election on November 3, and for big things to happen across Tarrant County. That won’t change the Senate’s makeup.

Now, let’s do the rest chronologically.

In October 2025, before there was even a candidate for SD02, I said, “If there were a wave election, Bob Hall wouldn’t be safe.” The Republicans hate it when I’m right. And they didn’t count on such a stellar candidate like Keenen Colbert to come along.

The establishment hasn’t been paying attention to Colbert, but I have, and he’s showing up every day, at every event, at every door, and getting out there one handshake, one conversation, one vote at a time. Don’t count this race out. Nothing is a given, but Democrats have a real opportunity here.

Side note: if Keenen Colbert flips SD02, then Chelsey Hockett will likely also flip TX05.

Paul Thomasson, running for SD05 against Charles Schwertner, has many similarities with Talarico. He’s a pastor who favors working for the people, doing for the poor, and opposes handouts to billionaires, the complete opposite of Schwertner.

If Williamson County goes blue, this will give Thomasson a big leg up. If Beto and Talarico’s efforts on college campuses pay off, this district also has Bryan-College Station on the other end. There’s opportunity here as well.

Last, SD11, Shannon Dicely. This is billionaire Mayes Middleton’s seat. He’s leaving to try to buy the Attorney General’s office. Republicans forget. The only reason Middleton ever won any of the seats he ever sat in was that he bought them with his own money. So, I don’t know if it’s fair to say it was ever a “red-red” seat to begin with. We’ll see what happens here.

Those are the four Senate seats that Republicans are worried about. SD02, SD05, SD09, and SD11.

What happens if Democrats take them all?

Then the Texas Senate becomes a 16(R)/15(D) environment.

And we (fingers crossed) flip the House.

Over the last month, most statewide polls have shown candidates within the margin of error.

For the Legislature, there are best- and worst-case scenarios.

The best-case scenario is that we flip both the Lt. Governor and Governor’s offices. The worst-case scenario is that we flip neither.

Either way, we’re still going to have to deal with Republican bullshit in the 90th Legislative Session. However, we may finally see the culture wars end. But that won’t stop them from pushing the favors for their billionaire friends, and some Democrats will be complicit.

With a Democratic House and a 16-15 Senate, all Republican priorities would die.

Does that mean that Texans finally get tax relief, access to healthcare, good public education, and clean air? We’re still going to have the Republicans to fight. They’ll try to kill those things, surely.

So, we’re left with a few speculative questions.

Could the Democrats possibly flip all of those Senate seats and even one more?

If they did, they would flip the Senate. Right now, nobody has that written in the cards. I mean, nobody. We could hope for it, but no other race has the numbers, visibility, or money right now. But who knows how bad Trump will screw up in the next month?

When Democrats take the House, who will become Speaker?

Y’all know my politics are Ana-Maria Rodriguez Ramos for everything! However, I recently spoke with Representative Anchia at an event, and he said he thought if Democrats took control, Senfronia Thompson would probably be best suited.

Representative Thompson, who has been in the Texas House since 1973, has more institutional knowledge than probably every Democrat and Republican elected combined. She may be the best choice.

Who breaks quorum now?

When Democrats finally give access to healthcare to millions of Texans or pass regulations for oil barons to quit poisoning children in brown communities, will Republicans play along, or will they be the ones to walk?

The reality of flipping Texas.

It won’t happen in one election cycle. Republicans didn’t take this state overnight.

But we can start. A 16–15 Senate doesn’t hand us the keys, but it takes them away from Dan Patrick. A flipped House means Republicans have to ask permission. Every seat we take this year is one we defend in 2028 instead of chase.

So yes, I’m tired. You’re tired. The whole thing is still on fire. But this weekend in Arlington, I saw a room full of people holding Dixie cups, and there were a lot more of them than I expected.

Thirty-six days. Show up.

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36 days until the November election!
Last Day to Register to Vote: October 5, 2026
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?
Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Or buy me a coffee.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.